Brenton Doyle was mired in a slump in May. On the surface, it was cause for concern for the Colorado Rockies’ star. However, his underlying numbers indicate that he will emerge from his slump sooner rather than later. Doyle demonstrated last season that his ceiling is that of a five-tool player for Colorado. He is a far better hitter than his surface stats say. It is only a matter of time before he gets back on track.
Brenton Doyle’s Early Slump
Doyle had a career year offensively in 2024, showing that he could be a player alongside shortstop Ezequiel Tovar that the Rockies can build around. In 149 games, Doyle hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 homers and 72 RBI in 542 at-bats. He won his first career Gold Glove for his excellent play patrolling the vast outfield of Coors Field as a center fielder. Meanwhile, he led the Rockies by a wide margin with 30 steals. His emergence in Colorado as a true five-tool player at his best sparked extension talks this offseason.
Because of all that, Doyle barely hitting above the Mendoza line on June 4 is cause for a second look. In May, Doyle hit .194/.269/.276 with just one home run and seven RBI. From May 1 to May 18, Doyle went 9-for-60 with 15 strikeouts. Doyle was the sole producer on a struggling Rockies offense to begin the season. So, when Doyle began to struggle, the offense went from bad to worse. The Rockies in that span went 3-16. Doyle’s elite speed was being wasted as he struggled to get on base.
The difficulties for Rockies’ hitters bringing their offense on the road are also affecting Doyle. In 96 road at-bats, he is hitting .156/.229/.198 with just one home run and four RBI. His batting average is over 100 points worse on the road compared to at home. The right-handed Doyle is also being torn apart by right-handed pitching. In 149 at-bats, he is hitting a paltry .161/.203/.275 with 45 strikeouts to just eight walks. He is hitting .200 against fastballs compared to .278 last season. It’s a whole lot of ugly that does not represent the hitter Doyle showed he could be last season. But Doyle is not awful offensively all of a sudden. He has just had some hard luck.
Doyle’s Underlying Numbers Paint Different Story
Usually, for a hitter hitting .204 overall at the beginning of June, their Statcast page would be littered in blue. But not for Doyle. His barrel rate has gone up from 10.5% in 2024 to 13.5% (81st percentile) this season. He is also squaring up balls at a 27.3% rate (61st percentile), up from 24.3% last season. He is still making hard contact consistently, but it just isn’t translating to hits.
His 58.2 Air% and 41.8 Groundball% are in line with last year. He hasn’t lost the boom in his bat. Doyle’s expected stats show a hitter who is hitting better than his results. Per Statcast, Doyle has a .318 xwOBA, .247xBA, and .429 xSLG. Statcast explains that xwOBA is formulated using exit velo, launch angle, and sprint speed on certain batted balls. Doyle’s 90.1 mph average exit velocity is just above average league-wide.
Brenton Doyle takes Chris Sale deep to give the Rockies the lead! pic.twitter.com/yWOzoaVBld
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 30, 2025
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The ideal attack angle per Statcast is in the range of 5-20 degrees. Doyle is in that range 71.2% of the time, up from 64.6% last season. His elite speed of 29.2 ft/s is in the 94th percentile league-wide. All three metrics result in a hitter that should be hitting easily above .300 at .318. He should be hitting 43 points better than his average, and his xSLG is in line with his actual SLG% from last season.
Doyle was a very unlucky hitter in May. Yes, his performance on the road has to improve, and the results to this point are the results. But his underlying numbers show a sleeping giant at the plate. He has exceeded his career year offensively last season in some areas, as well as being in line or only slightly behind in the other areas of his batting profile. Rockies’ opponents will yearn for May if/when Doyle’s numbers start translating to production.
Doyle on Breakout Watch Heading Into June
It seems crazy to label Doyle as a potential breakout hitter right now. But the numbers don’t lie, and eventually the worm will turn. In Doyle’s favor is the fact that Coors Field will become even more of a hitter’s haven as we head into the summer months. He is still well behind his numbers against righties from last season. But the metrics show no obvious regression that makes it hard to believe he won’t turn it around. Doyle is also the number one hitter on the scouting report for a dead-last Rockies offense.
It was unsustainable for Doyle to carry the Rockies’ offense when he had no help around him. But in May, when Doyle’s offense vanished, Jordan Beck and Hunter Goodman emerged. His running mate, Tovar, has been scorching hot since coming off a long stay on the injured list due to a hip injury. Offseason addition Thairo Estrada, who has great numbers at Coors in his career, is finally healthy. The offense the Rockies envisioned in the offseason is ever so slightly starting to take shape after a horrid start.
Perhaps finally having a semblance of a lineup around Brenton Doyle will be what it takes for his expected stats to translate to production following his slump. For a 12-50 Rockies team coming off its first series win and sweep of the season against the Miami Marlins, a Doyle emergence offensively would be exactly what the doctor ordered. The Rockies are tied for 28th with 27 steals and tied for 25th with 53 home runs. They sorely need their offensive leader from last season. The underlying stats say they will get their wish sooner rather than later.
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