NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami’s posting window closes at 4pm CT time on December 22. With just over a day left for Murakami to sign with an MLB club, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the White Sox are among the teams that are presently engaged in talks with the slugger’s camp. Chris Cotillo of MassLive adds that the Red Sox have “kicked the tires” on Murakami, as well as fellow NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto. Okamoto’s posting window closes on January 4.
Murakami’s time on the market has been unusually quiet for a player of his status. These reports of interest on the part of Chicago and Boston are the first significant reports tying Murakami to any of MLB’s 30 teams, as his representation has seemingly played things very close to the vest regarding his market. The 25-year-old has surely received interest from other clubs as well that has simply gone unreported, of course, but Murakami’s market doesn’t seem to be quite as strong as expected even when factoring in that reality.
Geoff Pontes of Baseball America suggested in an appearance on Foul Territory this past week that the slugger’s market has been “softer” than he and his representation were expecting entering the offseason. MLBTR ranked Murakami as the #4 free agent on the market this winter, predicting an eight-year, $180MM contract for the young slugger as part of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. That ranking accounts for Murakami’s top-of-the-scale power and extreme youth heading into free agency; Yoshinobu Yamamoto was just six months younger than Murakami when he landed a $325MM contract from the Dodgers, while the fact that Juan Soto was headed into his age-26 season was a key factor in him landing a record-shattering $765MM deal last winter.
With that said, Murakami’s low contact rates have raised some eyebrows around the baseball world since his posting, and it’s not hard to see why. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris illustrated the concerns with Murakami’s lack of contact in NPB by sharing a list of players with comparable contact rates and exit velocities in the majors in recent years. The resulting group includes some stars like Nick Kurtz (and Shohei Ohtani if the parameters adjusted to be somewhat more favorable to Murakami), but it includes a far larger group of middling players, ranging from decent regulars like Matt Wallner to early-career flame-outs like Aristides Aquino. There’s certainly reasons to believe Murakami will be a great deal better than those players, of course; his raw production in NPB is nothing short of otherworldly. Even so, the risk in the young slugger’s profile is real, and it’s not necessarily a shock that teams might shy away from giving him a massive contract until and unless he can prove his style of play works at the big league level.
Turning to the clubs with reported interest in Murakami, the White Sox are a very interesting fit. The slugger is certainly young enough to be part of the next competitive team on the south side; he’s just two years older than star rookies Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel. That makes him an intriguing fit for the Sox, especially if he signs with the club on a long-term deal. Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa are the club’s projected starters at the infield corners at the moment, but neither player is locked in strongly enough to prevent the addition of Murakami.
A short-term deal could also be possible, as well; the White Sox signed Erick Fedde to a two-year deal two winters ago and rode a strong first half to secure a three-way trade involving Fedde that brought back Vargas. A similar approach could be employed here as well, at least in theory. Chicago might be a particularly appealing destination for the young slugger given their lack of competitive expectations this year; it could allow him the opportunity to make necessary adjustments at the big league level without the pressure of a pennant race, and perhaps the White Sox would be more comfortable than most clubs trying Murakami at third base despite widespread concerns about his ability at the position.
As for the Red Sox, Murakami could provide the sort of elite slugger than the Red Sox lost when they traded away Rafael Devers over the summer. That makes the fit between the sides plausible, but there are certainly questions and obstacles as well. For one, the Red Sox are entering a clear win-now window after making the playoffs last year, and might not be willing to play Murakami through any struggles that could come with his adjustment to the majors. For another, the Red Sox are already extremely left-handed and have Triston Casas in-house as a first base/DH option with plenty of upside in his own right. Boston would need to be confident that Murakami would be a substantial upgrade over Casas in order to commit significant dollars to him for the same role.
While a pursuit of Murakami from Boston can’t be ruled out, the quote from Cotillo about Boston “kicking the tires” on the slugger suggests more of a reserved approach to his market. That’s an understandable path to take, particularly given that Okamoto could be a better fit. Okamoto is older than Murakami and lacks his countryman’s elite power, but he’s enjoyed a much more steady career in NPB without contact rate concerns, offers more playable defensive skills at third base, and is a right-handed hitter who more effectively complements the Red Sox lineup. That solid fit is part of why the Red Sox have been linked to Okamoto on occasion throughout the winter, even as they pursue a reunion with third baseman Alex Bregman.