The post What Colson Montgomery’s rookie year can teach us about his future appeared first on Sox On 35th.
Regardless of how the White Sox fare during the last two weeks of the season, Colson Montgomery is certainly the biggest story of the team’s season. He is just a few months removed from being unable to produce respectable results in AAA, only to work on his swing and then provide an immediate impact at the MLB level.
Entering Sunday, Montgomery is hitting .220/.290/.517 with a .807 OPS, 117 wRC+, and 18 home runs in 59 games. He also had been a plus defender by virtually all defensive metrics while primarily playing shortstop, which, of course, is an extremely valuable position. Beyond the surface-level numbers, however, some interesting takeaways can be gathered from Montgomery’s rookie year and perhaps applied to his future as well.
Considering that Montgomery is batting .220 with a .230 BABIP, it would be easy to assume that he has been unlucky on batted balls. However, this is not necessarily the case. Montgomery’s expected batting average is .232, and his xBABIP is .269. While these figures are indeed higher than his actual numbers, the difference is negligible — this is supported further by Montgomery’s .340 wOBA and .344 xwOBA.
Why might Montgomery’s wOBA and xwOBA be nearly identical if his xBA and xBABIP are higher (albeit slightly) than his actual average and BABIP? The likely answer to this exists in Montgomery’s batted ball profile:
Colson Montgomery’s notable batted ball stats (entering Sunday):
- 31% fly balls (league average = 24%)
- 10% infield pop-ups (league average = 7%)
- 37% ground balls (league average = 44%)
- 47% pull rate (league average = 37%)
Clearly, Montgomery has a very pull-heavy and fly ball-heavy batted ball profile. This combination is generally very good at producing home runs when a player hits the ball hard. However, this combination also often leads to lower batting averages and a greater reliance on home runs and/or doubles to prop up a player’s batting line.
Ground balls, while they have a limited ceiling, are the most effective way for players to collect hits other than line drives. Montgomery does not hit a lot of ground balls. And when you factor in his above-average pop-up rate — a batted ball type with essentially zero probability of a positive outcome — it makes plenty of sense that Montgomery is currently a low-average, high-slugging hitter who is not a victim of bad luck despite a low BABIP.
Zooming back out, it is also important to note that none of this is a criticism of Montgomery. He hits these pop-ups in part because he is attempting to find his barrel and hit fly balls or line drives, and the pop-ups are an unfortunate byproduct of this approach. So far, his approach is working, so there is no reason to change it.
Additionally, far too many White Sox prospects of yesteryear have struggled with above-average ground ball rates, below-average pull rates, and consequently underwhelming power outputs. It is actually refreshing that Montgomery has the opposite approach. He hits a lot of fly balls, and he pulls a lot of them, which leads to many home runs. He also has shown an ability to hit home runs to the opposite field, which is a good sign for the future.
If Montgomery remains a pull-happy, fly-ball-heavy hitter in the future, his raw power will ideally allow for this to be worth the drawbacks. As long as he can stick at shortstop defensively (early returns are very positive) or at least third base, a .220-.260 hitter with plus defense at that position and plus power is already extremely valuable.
It is unrealistic to expect Montgomery’s recent home run pace to be his norm, but even if he “only” hits 25 home runs per season (or less than half of his current full-season pace), he will be very valuable. He is also an excellent counterpart to somebody like Kyle Teel, for example, whose ceiling may be closer to a .300 hitter but with less power.
Future tweaks to Montgomery’s swing or approach to increase his average or on-base skills should only be made if there is a marginal at most corresponding decrease to his power output. In other words, a plus defensive shortstop who hits .270 with 20 home runs is typically less valuable than if he hits .250 with 30 home runs. Montgomery does not need to become something that he is not. There are also other ways he can raise his floor during stretches where he is not hitting home runs, such as by increasing his walk rate (currently 8%).
In any case, White Sox fans should not expect Montgomery to post high batting averages, and that is totally fine provided he remains a fly ball-heavy slugger. So far, the risks have been worth the rewards, especially for a shortstop and for someone who plays in a home ballpark that is kind to power-hitting lefties.
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Featured Photo: © Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
The post What Colson Montgomery’s rookie year can teach us about his future appeared first on Sox On 35th.