The most important hitter on the Pittsburgh Pirates this year is going to be Konnor Griffin. He is the number one prospect in baseball and has the sort of upside with the bat in his hands to make a below-average lineup strong. Between his power, ability to hit for average, and speed, he could truly have a historic rookie campaign for the Bucs. However, the Pirates’ lineup also hinges on the success of another player. Oneil Cruz is the second most important hitter the Bucs have, and rebounding in 2026 could make the Pirates not just playoff contenders, but give them the chance to make a deep playoff run.
Oneil Cruz Faces Important 2026 for Pirates
A Disappointing 2025, But Hope on the Horizon
2025 was a disappointing season for Cruz. He only hit .200/.298/.378 with a .295 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ over 544 plate appearances. Cruz at least hit 20 home runs, went 38-for-43 in stolen base attempts, and had an impressive 11.8% walk rate. But his batting average fell by nearly 60 points, and his strikeout rate rose from 30.2% to 32%. While his .324 xwOBA and .425 xSLG% indicated some bad luck, they were only slightly better than average. The former was in the 50th percentile, and the latter was in the 52nd percentile of hitters in 2025.
But Pirates fans know what Cruz is capable of. In 2024, he hit .259/.324/.449 with a 110 wRC+. He was in the 80th percentile of xwOBA at .345, and the 86th percentile of xSLG% at .475. Cruz was even hitting well through his first two-and-a-half months of 2025. His first 258 plate appearances yielded a strong .820 OPS, .352 wOBA, and 125 wRC+. It took him just over 250 trips to the dish to hit 13 home runs. However, he only hit seven more through his final 286 plate appearances of 2025.
No One Hits the Ball Like Cruz Does
The biggest thing the Pirates need for Cruz to do in 2026 turn his raw power into more home runs. His average exit velocity was 95.8 MPH, which was in the 100th percentile of batters in 2025. His barrel rate clocked in at a whopping 17.9%. Cruz’s 2024 and 2025 seasons are the only Statcast-era seasons in which a player had 500+ plate appearances, an EV over 95 MPH, and fewer than 35 home runs. Cruz the last two seasons, along with Matt Chapman in 2023, and Josh Donaldson in 2021 are the only batters to have a 17%+ barrel percentage, and fewer than 30 home runs in 500+ plate appearances.
Oneil Cruz singles off another LHP, then steals 2nd.
Let’s. Go.
100.2 MPH exit velocity, .830 xBA pic.twitter.com/ezQrl2CUmo
— Platinum Key (@PlatinumKey13) February 23, 2026
The Pirates’ Most Intimidating Batter Got Some Help
More lineup protection will certainly help Cruz. 58.7% of the pitches Cruz saw last year were outside of the strike zone. Last year, 308 batters saw 1,000 or more pitches, and only former two-time MVP Bryce Harper saw pitches outside the zone at a higher rate. After all, there was no reason to pitch to the most powerful hitter in the Pirates’ lineup last season. That forced Cruz to become much more aggressive, and it cost him his production at the plate. His swing rate through June 11 was only 39.7%. After that, it was 43.2%. However, that meant more swings outside the strikezone, fewer walks, and his overall contact rate remained about the same.
If Cruz simply repeats his 2024 season, he will make the Pirates’ lineup a whole lot better. But if he hits like his raw power suggests he can, and regains the plate discipline fans saw early in the year, he will be a season-changing bat. Cruz could be the Pirates’ first 30-home run hitter in the 2020s. The Pirates need him to break out in 2026. They hit just 117 homers last year, which was the fewest in baseball by a mile. The next closest were the St. Louis Cardinals with 148. The only batter with more potential to do more damage is Griffin, making Cruz the second most important hitter in the organization right now.
Main Photo Credit: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports