The previous offseason saw the Cincinnati Reds make a flurry of moves. None were big splashes, but there were plenty of supplemental pieces brought in for the 2025 season. One could argue, however, that the trade for Taylor Rogers was perhaps the biggest move in terms of name value.
Reds Reliever Taylor Rogers’ Successful Struggles
Rogers’ Trade
On January 29th, the Reds swung a trade with the San Francisco Giants, acquiring the left-handed reliever Rogers and cash in exchange for minor league reliever Braxton Roxby.
The Reds also only picked up $6 million of his $12 million salary, and he will become a free agent at the end of the season, where his three-year, $33 million contract concludes.
Rogers’ Past Performance
The Rogers trade brought some understandable excitement within the fan base due to his track record of being a reliable lefty out of the bullpen.
Starting with his debut in 2016, Rogers was one of the more reliable bullpen arms for the Minnesota Twins until his stints in San Diego and Milwaukee, where he began to falter for a few seasons. In 2023 and 2024 with the Giants, however, Rogers was back to his usual solid self, posting an ERA of 3.83 and 2.40, respectively. He also posted a 3.91 and 3.75 FIP in those seasons.
While reliever ERA isn’t the most indicative metric of measuring future success, his stability will always be a positive asset to any team. Of his eight full big league seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened season of 2020 and the current season), Rogers has made more than 60 appearances five times, peaking at 72 appearances in 2018 and bottoming at 40 in 2021. He also has some closing experience, with two 30-save seasons under his belt. That wasn’t his expected role when he came to the Reds, but it’s something he is capable of if needed.
The 2025 Season
Rogers’ season for the Reds this year has been a dichotomy of success and struggle. On a surface level, he has been everything the Reds have asked of him, posting a 2.76 ERA in 21 innings.
He’s working on a solid 3.87 FIP and an impressive 165 ERA+, and he has impressively allowed just three home runs.
Judging by his career 3.31 ERA, one can assume that the fans are content with his performance this year, but instead, there is outrage at his apparent ineptitude. Let’s dive into the reasons.
Struggles With Inherited Runners
It sounds insane to say a reliever getting paid just $5 million who has a 165 ERA+ on the season has been disappointing, but that is exactly what Reds fans have felt this year.
Despite the good personal numbers, Rogers has been brutal when dealing with inherited runners this year. He has allowed a whopping 13 of 22 inherited runners to score this year, which doesn’t reflect on his ERA but still hurts the team tremendously, especially when he was expected to be somewhat of a reliable high-leverage arm.
Taylor Rogers once again allows inherited runners to score and the #Reds just can’t put this game away
Austin Hays remained in the game after appearing banged up pic.twitter.com/r6QxerJr8P
— Chatterbox Sports (@CBoxSports) July 4, 2025
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Struggles Against Lefties
Rogers has faced 61 left-handed hitters this year, who have slashed .235/.350/.392 for a .742 OPS, which is simply not good enough when he’s one of the only left-handers out of the bullpen and should be trusted to get the fellow lefties out. He has also walked nine of the 61 lefties faced, while striking out just 18 of them.
Rogers faced a similar issue in 2024 with San Francisco as well, and was actually worse, as he allowed lefties to slash .284/.364/.421 for a .785 OPS.
For comparison, Geraldo Perdomo, the young shortstop for the Arizona Diamondbacks, is slashing .267/.368/.408 for a .786 OPS, meaning every time a lefty faced Taylor Rogers in 2024, they were playing at the level of Geraldo Perdomo. Despite the slight improvement from 2024 to 2025, it has still been poor. For comparison, Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski is slashing .244/.338/.382 for a .720 OPS, meaning when lefties are facing Rogers this season, they are playing at or near the level of Mike Yastrzemski.
Struggles with Runners On Base
Rogers has faced 48 batters with runners in scoring position this year, and has been putrid, allowing them to slash .286/.417/.371 for a .782 OPS. The number that jumps out here is the .417 OBP, which is a direct result of his nine walks in these situations.
This has been a problem for him all year, in fact, as he is currently in the 10th percentile league-wide in walk rate with an 11.6 BB%.
By looking at just runners on base instead of specifically runners in scoring position, Rogers has actually been even worse, allowing batters to slash .275/.375/.431 for an .806 OPS.
Rogers has simply been unplayable when runners are on, which is a big headache for any pitcher, especially a late reliever.
Struggles In High Leverage Situations
Last but not least, the important high leverage situations for Taylor Rogers. In 2025, he has faced 11 batters in high-leverage situations, where they have slashed an astonishingly high .625/.635/1.125 for a 1.760 OPS. While this is absolutely horrible, it isn’t necessarily a fluke. In 2024, Rogers faced 18 batters while in high-leverage situations, and allowed them to slash .313/.333/.688 for a 1.021 OPS.
Rogers’ Expectations
Judging by what we have looked at today, it is evident why San Francisco traded Rogers plus cash in exchange for just a minor league arm, despite his solid ERA. The same thing is happening this year with him, where his ERA is solid but he has simply only performed when the pressure is at its lowest.
Despite the negativity throughout this piece, he can still be a decent arm out of the bullpen for Cincinnati, but just in low-leverage situations such as blowouts and middle relief situations.
Photo Credit: © Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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