At some point, a rebuilding team has to become a retaining team
In the tradition of Trooper Galactus’ fine offseason series at SSS in 2022, here’s a look at the case for trading at peak value or keeping breakout pitching star Adrian Houser beyond July 2025.
fWAR 1.1
rWAR 2.1
WARP 0.4
aWAR 1.2
The case for staying Houser has compiled an outrageous 1.2 aWAR in just SEVEN starts with the White Sox — none utterly brilliant (top game score 73, with an average 10-20 points better than average at FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference), but nothing terribly poor (one of seven below-average starts), either. He’s brought a consistency and stability as found money for the rotation, and has shown no signs that this current career bump is a mirage.
More broadly speaking, Houser has anchored a staff (WAR and ERA twice as good as anyone else in the rotation, FIP 50 points better) that, brusquely said, is getting no significant reinforcements any time soon. Absent significant spending on the rotation this offseason (hold your laughter), the best-case scenario sees a Noah Schultz or Hagen Smith added to the mix, at best offsetting skill drops or injury losses by the current crop of arms.
The case for going Houser is 32 years old and has seen some success in the past (solid, “average” starter seasons in 2019 and 2021 for Milwaukee) but in his ninth season has established himself as a yo-yo major-leaguer — never truly getting his feet under him. His trade value is almost surely higher than it ever will be. You win a lucky hand in Vegas, cash out at the window.
Add to that the fact that Houser, a free agent after the season, will see his first and probable only decent payday this offseason. The White Sox will need to outbid other suitors surely willing to pony up, say, 2/20 or 3/24 to an arm capable of weeks-long dominance.
The verdict At some point, a rebuilding era needs to transition into a retain movement. While it is exceedingly risky to put too much faith in a 32-year-old arm with a scattered past and dreams of a payday ahead, Houser chose the White Sox to sign with, for the opportunity and tutelage. The relationship has worked, and he will come back to the White Sox for a reasonable (say, an Erick Fedde 2/15 deal with incentives to boost it to crazy heights if Houser has a Cy finalist season in him) rate.
Lock him up now and, worst case, you begin to signal to your fan base and roster that greatness is no longer rewarded with a bus ticket out of town. Without rewarding arms, whether homegrown or found outside the dumpster, 100 losses will continue as routine rather than fade in the rear view.