With Hunter Greene on the shelf with a groin strain, Andrew Abbott has stepped up as the Cincinnati Reds’ ace, as he’s currently working on an All-Star-worthy season through his first 11 starts.
Andrew Abbott Having Outstanding Start to 2025
Abbott’s Last Start
Abbott had his most impressive outing of the season in his last start, where he went the distance against the Cleveland Guardians, tossing nine shutout innings, allowing just three hits, and grabbing five strikeouts along the way.
This performance is coming off of his worst start of the season against the Milwaukee Brewers, where he allowed a season-high five earned runs over six frames.
Reds starter Andrew Abbott finishes the shutout!
His ERA is now 1.87… HAVE A YEAR
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— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 11, 2025
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2023 and 2024 Seasons
Andrew Abbott was outstanding right out of the gate in his rookie year, posting a 3.87 ERA in 21 starts. He held a strong strikeout rate of 26.1% and allowed hard-hit balls at a 42.5% clip.
In 2024, Abbott took a step forward, posting a 3.72 ERA in 25 starts, despite his strikeout rate dropping all the way down to just 19.5%. He did, however, combat that by lowering his hard-hit rate to 33.7%.
Abbott was comfortably the number three starter in a strong Cincinnati rotation, and coming into 2025, his expectations were about more of the same. A number three starter who would make 25 or so starts with a mid-three ERA. This is what has made his 2025 breakout all the more impressive.
Abbott’s 2025 Breakout Season
So far in 11 starts this season, Andrew Abbott has a 1.87 ERA in 62 2/3 innings pitched. He has already matched his bWAR from his rookie season of 2.8 despite making half as many starts as he did in 2023.
3.03 xERA – (81st percentile)
.210 xBA – (86th percentile)
87.5 Avg Exit Velocity – (84th percentile)
28.4 Chase% – (53rd percentile)
25.4 Whiff% – (52nd percentile)
26.1 K% – (74th percentile)
8.2 BB% – (52nd percentile)
30.6 Hard-Hit% – (95th percentile)
29.4 GB% – (6th percentile)
As shown above, Abbott’s metrics are heavily in support of his breakout season. While the low ground ball rate may be a cause for concern, Abbott has never been a ground ball pitcher. His rates in 2024 and 2023 were 34.7% and 29.9% respectively, which shows that he is still capable of success despite this flaw.
Pitch Mix
Abbott’s pitch mix has remained consistent throughout his career so far, with the only significant change being the addition of his cutter in 2025. On top of his four-seam fastball, change-up, sweeper, and curveball combo, Abbott has now added a fifth pitch, the cutter, which he throws just 4% of the time.
Abbott’s Future
At 26 years old, Abbott has three more years under team control, as he will be in his first season of arbitration following this season’s conclusion. While this year has been an outlier so far, even if he regresses to the mean, he will still be a valuable number two or three starter in the Reds rotation. The one-two punch of Abbott and ace Hunter Greene (when healthy) can be one of the most lethal lefty-righty duos in the league.
Abbott can easily make his All-Star debut if he continues his outstanding season. At 26, he is still young enough to get excited about the possibilities of his peak once he reaches his prime. A hopeful factor about his performance is that he doesn’t rely on pure velocity to get batters out. In fact, his average fastball velocity is just 92.1 MPH in 2025, good for just the 18th percentile. Longevity seems to be on his side if everything falls through, as he’s consistently made 20+ starts every season and he’s on track to do so once again in 2025.
Main Photo Credit: © David Richard-Imagn Images
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