While they won’t be breaking the major league record for losses this year like they did in 2024, it’s been another tough year for the White Sox. They’ve lost 95 games and could lose 100 games for the third year in a row. Emerging young players like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery have made this season a little easier for fans on the south side of Chicago to stomach, but there’s still little reason to expect the team to contend in 2026.
One of the most important offseason decisions for the White Sox has been whether to exercise a $20MM option on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. or pay him a $2MM buyout, though it seems they’ve generally already made up their mind. As soon as the Sox opted not to trade him at the deadline, it seemed likely Robert would be back in 2026 as opposed to bought out for no return. General manager Chris Getz has suggested as much on multiple occasions, and just this morning he told reporters that he expects Robert to be a part of the club next season (link via Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times). The question, then, is less about what they will do and whether or not they’re right to do it.
With Robert all but confirmed to be done for the 2025 campaign due to a hamstring strain, his numbers appear locked in. After slashing .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) with 14 homers in 100 games last year, Robert produced a nearly identical .223/.297/.364 line (82 wRC+) and slugged 14 homers in 110 games in 2025. Between that apparent lack of progress and Robert’s continued injury woes, it might seem difficult to understand why the White Sox would stick with him rather than simply viewing him as a sunk cost.
Despite his eerily similar (and disappointing) numbers, however, digging a little deeper into Robert’s 2025 numbers actually reveals reason for optimism. He stole ten more bases this year than last, going 33-for-41 as opposed to 2024’s 23-for-29. Robert’s defense is also showing signs of a rebound, as he jumped from a Fielding Run Value of 0 in 2024 to a +7 figure this year, good for top 10 among center fielders in baseball this year.
More encouraging than either of those changes are the differences in his approach at the plate. While Robert’s overall slash line doesn’t look terribly different, he cut his strikeout rate from 33.2% in ’24 to a more manageable 26% in ’25. His 9.8% walk rate isn’t just an improvement over last year’s 6.6% mark — it’s a new career-high. Robert also did his best work this summer, rebounding from a slow start to hit .274/.335/.458 with nine homers, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate over his final 198 plate appearances. That was 17% better than average, per wRC+.
As shown by Statcast, Robert’s bat speed dropped in 2024, but he’s rebounded to elite levels in 2025, ranking in the 92nd percentile of big leaguers. That could suggest there’s still some untapped power upside, but even if his days of crushing baseballs on a 30 to 40 homer pace are behind him, the combination of improved discipline, baserunning, and defense leave him in a solid position to be a three-to-four win player in the future if he can just stay healthy — though that is a colossal “if.”
It’s arguable that it’s worth an $18MM roll of the dice, particularly considering the fact that Cody Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason after back-to-back down seasons with the Dodgers. Like Robert, Bellinger was coming off injury-marred seasons where he didn’t look like himself at the plate but had shown some signs of improvement in his final year in Los Angeles. Bellinger, of course, rewarded the north siders for their gamble with an All-Star campaign in 2023 and has posted a 123 wRC+ with 10.9 fWAR over the past three seasons.
On the other hand, locking Robert in for another year comes with glaringly obvious risk. With the White Sox unlikely to contend in 2026, on-field production will only benefit the team if it can then be converted into trade capital. The White Sox have had a lot of difficulty getting what they perceive to be fair value for Robert over the years, and even if he has a big first half in 2026, teams might be scared away by his uncertain history.
Furthermore, Robert’s 110 games played in 2025 are actually the second-most of his entire career. He’s never played even 150 games in a season. One first-half injury could leave Robert with little trade value next year, and force the White Sox into another situation a lot like the one they find themselves in this year as they stare down another $20MM option for the 2027 campaign.
What do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should be doing about Robert? Should they pick up his option and bet on better days in the future, or would they be better off sending him on his way and using that $18MM in savings elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below:
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