The 2026 offseason has begun for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and among the avenues they’ll pursue are minor league free agents. Back in my childhood (the 1960s and 1970s), it wasn’t unusual for Pittsburgh’s professional teams to seek out the opinions of media members for recommendations about players. The late Pat Livingston of The Pittsburgh Press, for example, was a de facto scout for the Steelers. These days, relations between sports teams and the media are more strained. Maybe it’s more accurate to say that the parties don’t socialize much anymore. Nevertheless, I have a recommendation for Pirates general manager Ben Cherington.
As Pirates Ponder Minor League Free Agents, Here’s One They Should Consider
Mr. Cherington, I present to you Ryan Ward from the Los Angeles Dodgers system. He’s a 27-year-old outfielder who slugged 36 home runs for Triple-A Oklahoma City, leading the minor leagues and earning him the Joe Bauman Award and the Pacific Coast League’s Most Valuable Player Award. Besides the 36 dingers, Ward hit .290/.380/.557 and drove in 122 runs for Oklahoma City. He carried an 18.7 percent strikeout rate and a healthy 12.7 percent walk rate. He’s no flash in the pan, either. Since 2021, he’s never hit fewer than 21 home runs in a season. In three Triple-A seasons, he’s hit .261/.343/.507, 90 HR, and 318 RBI.
Not surprised Ryan Ward was named MVP. He had one heck of season and was never given the chance to show it off in the Majors. https://t.co/C9ADgcyvXk
— Dodgers_After_Duty (@msalas24) September 28, 2025
Ward’s contract is up after the 2025 season. There’s no word on whether he’ll re-up with the Dodgers or test the market as a minor league free agent. I’m guessing the latter.
Two Strikes Against Him?
What strikes might Ward have against him? First, 27 is “old” for a prospect who has yet to get a major league opportunity. I use the term “prospect” loosely. He’s no longer on the Dodgers’ list of top prospects. He’s been invited to the major league spring training camp these last three years but has never made the final cut. Of course, it’s hard to crack the roster of the talent-laden Dodgers and their $350 million payroll. They relied extensively on their farm system back in the days of Sandy Koufax, but despite having the top farm system in baseball, the Dodgers don’t do business that way anymore. For example, of the 10 players who started Game 3 of the National League Championship Series on Wednesday night, only two were home-grown.
Yes, Michael Conforto was a big flop for the Dodgers this season, and they’ll be looking for outfield help. They’ll probably simply pluck another high-profile free agent from the available pool rather than develop a minor leaguer such as Ward. After all, they have to be the favorites to “threepeat” as World Series champs in 2026. I say this because they’ll win it in 2025, of course.
Second, it’s well known that in the PCL, batting statistics are inflated due to the high altitudes and dry air in the participant cities. How do we know that PCL success will translate to the major leagues? A couple of sabermetricians have attempted to answer that question.
PCL Adjustments
In 2023, Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs attempted to quantify the effect the PCL has on batting stats. He concluded that a hitter’s slash line is inflated by .080/.107/.158 by playing in the PCL. Adjusting Ward’s numbers accordingly, he would have hit .210/.273/.399 in a “normal” setting last year. That’s not much different than the numbers Alexander Canario put up. I’m not sure that I believe that the Bauman awardee and PCL MVP, ostensibly the league’s best player, would have been a .210 hitter anywhere else. That would suggest that any player who came from the PCL would be virtually useless. Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio came from the PCL. That shoots that theory.
Equivalent Average
Have no fear, Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus came up with Equivalent Average (EqA) in 2010 to adjust a hitter’s stats to eliminate ballpark and league effects. The first step is the determination of “raw EqA,” the formula for which follows:
The sum of hits + total bases + (1.5 times (walks + hit by pitch)) + stolen bases + sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies
Divided by
The sum of at-bats + walks + hit by pitch + sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies + caught stealings + (stolen bases divided by 3).
The raw EqA is then adjusted by a league factor, a ballpark factor, not having to face the pitchers on the player’s team, and a difficulty factor to convert it into the EqA. If you’re interested in what goes into all of this, more information can be found here. If you understand it, you’re pretty good. Suffice it to say that .300 is considered a good EqA. An EqA of .260 is considered average.
Baseball Prospectus doesn’t present computations of EqA for individual players. (Can you blame them?) Fortunately, Davenport fills that void on his own website. So, if you’ve read this far, let’s get to what you really want to know: In 2025, Ward’s EqA was .290 according to Davenport.
This suggests Ward is a well-above-average hitter. I can’t say that I understand EqA, but this result makes more sense to me.
Let’s Get Practical
Cherington puts a lot of stock in analytics. Whether he puts much stock in Zimmerman’s PCL adjustment of Davenport’s EqA is unknown. It’s also unknown whether his analytics department has its own measures to eliminate PCL effects. What’s known is that Ward is a left-handed hitter with power and a good eye. The long-time minor leaguer might relish coming to Pittsburgh, where he has a legitimate shot to play every day while aiming for PNC Park’s short right field.
Cherington’s predecessor, Neal Huntington, took the job late in the 2007 season. He initiated a full-scale rebuilding process that yielded little major league talent and five losing seasons from 2008-12. After his five-year plan failed, bold moves were needed in 2013. Huntington answered the call when he signed free agent Russell Martin to a two-year, $17 million deal. The Pirates went on to three consecutive postseason appearances.
There’s nothing in Cherington’s Pirates tenure to suggest he has a similar bold move in him. Despite having created payroll flexibility at the trade deadline, it’s unlikely he’ll sign a free agent who will have the impact Martin did. Look for more of the same, along the lines of Rowdy Tellez or Tommy Pham. As he scans the list of minor league free agents who might be attractive to the Pirates, Ward’s is one name he shouldn’t pass over.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
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