With the deadline just over a week away, White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. figures to be one of the most talked-about names on the market. Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic report that two clubs “made aggressive attempts” to acquire Robert last week but the Sox held out for a better prospect package. Along similar lines, Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that Robert is in “trade limbo” because the Sox don’t want to move him for “a reduced return.”
The Sox are running out of time to pull the trigger on a Robert trade. He is in the final year of his contract. The Sox hold a $20MM club option for next year with a $2MM buyout. The piece from The Athletic mentions the possibility of the Sox picking up that option since they have almost no payroll obligations, a possibility that Buster Olney of ESPN also mentioned yesterday.
Though it’s true that the Sox have almost no money on their future books, it’s still hard to see them shelling out an extra $18MM on Robert right now. He’s been hurt and/or ineffective for most of the past two years. They’ve already missed a few opportunities to flip him when his value was higher, so it’s probably not wise to kick the can down the road yet again. The option value could look decent if Robert is hot through the end of the season but it’s also possible that he is hurt or slumping again, meaning they would have held him for nothing.
It’s likely that Robert’s appeal on the market is up a bit, at least relative to earlier this year. His overall season is still bad, as he’s sitting on a line of .206/.292/.344. However, he has actually been in a groove for a while now.
Robert sat out a few games in early June. Manager Will Venable said, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com, this was to give Robert some time to focus on making adjustments. Though Venable said it would be for two games, Robert missed three, the games on June 3rd, 4th and 5th. Whatever those adjustments were, they seem to have worked. At the time of that breather, Robert had a .177/.266/.286 batting line and 30.8% strikeout rate. Since then, he has hit .267/.347/.467 with a more manageable 25.5% strikeout rate.
That latter line is still in a small sample of work. Robert had a quick stint on the injured list due to a left hamstring strain in there and then there was the All-Star break, so it’s only 102 plate appearances. However, it’s production he’s been capable of in the past. The 123 wRC+ for that stretch is in the same ballpark as the 129 wRC+ he had in his excellent 2023 season.
Even when he was really struggling, he was still providing value. He had a 112 wRC+ against lefties at the end of April and then had a 151 wRC+ versus southpaws in May. He has 25 steals on the year and can run the ball down in center field.
Though it’s been a rough season, there should be some appeal and it’s understandable that some clubs have attempted to get him. He seems to have the floor of a speed-and-defense guy who can fill the short side of a platoon. The ceiling is obviously much higher. FanGraphs credited him with 4.9 wins above replacement in 2023 thanks to his .264/.315/.542 line, defense and speed. He has shown glimpses of that over the past six weeks or so.
Teams will naturally still have some hesitation due to his injuries and slumps, but few available players have Robert’s upside. The market could also feature center fielders such as Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader and Alek Thomas. Mullins had a great April but has been in a slump since then. Bader is having a nice season but is four years older than Robert, has a checkered injury history of his own and has never had the same ceiling. Thomas is a great fielder but a subpar hitter.
The Sox are reportedly willing to include cash in a Robert deal in order to improve the prospect return. He is making $15MM this year, which will leave about $5MM left to pay out at the deadline. That will naturally appeal to clubs with tight budgets. Robert hasn’t been connected to any specific teams yet but reportedly had eight teams on the phone earlier this month. As mentioned earlier, a couple made recent pushes. Teams like the Royals, Guardians, Mets, Phillies, Tigers and Angels are some of the contenders who could use center field upgrades.
Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images