MILWAUKEE — Shota Imanaga stared in disbelief, watching how one swing shifted the momentum.
“Too many home run balls” has been the theme of Imanaga’s pitching performance over the last three months. Even working with a three-run lead before he threw a pitch Monday at American Family Field didn’t change the concerning trend. Another doomed first-inning sequence, this time in Game 2 of the National League Division Series, might haunt the Cubs and their dreams of a deep postseason run.
Imanaga’s inability to toss a zero in the opening frame doused another electric start for the Cubs. Seiya Suzuki’s three-run home run in the top of the first against Milwaukee Brewers lefty reliever Aaron Ashby quieted 42,787 fans.
Suzuki’s 440-foot, 111.7 mph rocket to left field was reminiscent of Michael Busch’s leadoff home run in Game 1 on Saturday that gave the Cubs early momentum.
And yet the starting pitching again let down the Cubs in a 7-3 loss that sends them back to Wrigley Field for Game 3 at 4:08 p.m. on Wednesday — on the brink of elimination.
Milwaukee knocked Imanaga out of the game after 2 2/3 innings thanks to four runs on five hits, including two home runs.
“With the team putting up three runs, I ruined the game,” Imanaga said through interpreter Edwin Stanberry. “There’s a lot of frustration within myself.”
The Cubs face a daunting comeback to save their season.
In postseason history, according to the MLB.com research team, only 10 of 90 teams have rallied from an 0-2 deficit in any best-of-five series. In Division Series history with the current 2-2-1 format, teams that won Games 1 and 2 at home have advanced 31 of 34 times, including 20 sweeps. The New York Yankees were the last team to overcome the deficit when they came back to beat the Cleveland Guardians in the 2017 American League Division Series.
Perhaps the most painful part of the damage the Brewers did against Cubs pitchers: all seven runs scored with two outs and six runs came on two-strike pitches.
“Look, we made a couple mistakes with multiple runners on base, and after getting off to a great start, those mistakes with two, three-run homers, you’re not going to win playoff games giving up two, three-run homers,” manager Craig Counsell said. “That was just too much to overcome.”
That’s how close the Cubs were to avoiding disaster. But the postseason exposes those slim margins, and the Cubs failed in key spots. The offense didn’t do enough in a bullpen game for the Brewers that featured seven relievers who combined to give up just four hits. The Cubs produced just two after the first inning, both singles, and did not put a runner in scoring position over the final seven innings.
Through five postseason games, the Cubs have been held to three runs or fewer, while home runs are responsible for driving in all six of their runs in the NLDS. Brewers pitchers combined to strike out the Cubs 23 times in two games.
“Hitting’s hard, putting runs up in big-league games is hard, this sport that we play is hard,” said Pete Crow-Armstrong, who struck out three times Monday. “So, it’s not a surprise that they’re going out there throwing their best arms, and all those guys seem to be locked in. It’s just our job to execute. I know I haven’t done that.
“It’s a pretty simple idea here, like, go put more balls in play and we’ll probably score more runs.”
Imanaga opened his start by striking out the first two batters, Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang, then allowed back-to-back singles on consecutive pitches to William Contreras and Christian Yelich. A belt-high sweeper that Andrew Vaughn turned on tied the game with his three-run home run, set off a frenzy among Brewers fans and saw the long ball continue to hurt Imanaga.
“If the result was a homer then it’s a bad pitch,” Imanaga said. “Just rethinking it, like in that moment, if I walked him, still had bases loaded, and there’d still be another chance.
“Feel-wise I felt normal, mentally I felt calm and had confidence going up onto the mound. But I felt like the overall feeling, just couldn’t maintain it.”
Imanaga got beat in the third by Contreras for a go-ahead solo home run and failed to get out of the inning. The 32-year-old has given up a home run in 10 consecutive starts. He entered the playoffs dealing with questions about his first-inning struggles (7.20 ERA) and home run woes, tied for the fourth-most home runs allowed in the regular season and the second-worst HR/9 rate.
Nothing Imanaga showed Monday diminished those problems.
“There’s a tipping point to, I think, giving up home runs, and Shota has succeeded because he’s kept runners off base and maybe the solo home run doesn’t hurt you as much,” Counsell said. “Again, I’m going to reiterate: a three-run homer is going to kill you, and you can survive some solo home runs. Home runs with men on base like that, you’re going to have a tough time surviving them.
“He did get off to a good start. There was some swing-and-miss the first two innings for sure that was good to see. But the long ball and the rate he’s giving it up right now with runners on base, that’s going to be hard to overcome.”
Monday marked Imanaga’s 11th start with at least two home runs allowed this year, and four of those starts occurred in the final month of the season.
“I feel like I need to have confidence to throw strikes in the zone again,” Imanaga said.
Asked whether he hopes the Cubs can rally in the series to put him in position to get the ball again this postseason, Imanaga provided a blunt assessment of his situation.
“I mean, realistically, I haven’t been able to put up the results to help the team, but if that was to come to reality, then I want to regain the trust of everybody,” Imanaga said.
Counsell went to Daniel Palencia in hopes of the hard-throwing right-hander keeping the game close as the Brewers turned over their lineup in the fourth. He, too, couldn’t give the Cubs a clean outing. Chourio, who left Game 1 in the second inning due to right hamstring tightness, delivered the big blow on an 0-2 pitch that landed for a three-run home run.
When dropping Game 1, the Cubs have subsequently lost three consecutive postseason series. They haven’t bounced back from a Game 1 defeat to ultimately win a series since the 2016 World Series. Now in an 0-2 hole, the Cubs know they must win three games in a four-day stretch to advance.
“You’ve got to believe in it,” Ian Happ said. “You’ve got to believe that. You go take the game Wednesday and go from there. That’s all we can do, is focus on one at a time and get home and play a good game on Wednesday.”