The matchup is set. The Chicago Bears will play the Green Bay Packers in a wild-card playoff game at 7 p.m. Saturday at Soldier Field. These historic rivals have met 212 times, but this will be just the third playoff game between them.
The Bears lost 19-16 to the Detroit Lions in Week 18. The Packers rested many of their starters and lost 16-3 to the Minnesota Vikings in a largely meaningless finale. Now they will meet for the third time this season after splitting their two regular-season games.
Tribune Bears reporters Brad Biggs, Sean Hammond and Phil Thompson tackle this week’s pressing questions ahead of the playoffs.
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1. The Bears face a Packers team that rested its starters in Week 18. With a Saturday game and a short week of preparation, is that an advantage for Green Bay?
Biggs: The Packers pulled quarterback Jordan Love and running back Josh Jacobs, among others, early in the 2024 season finale against the Bears with an eye toward health in the playoffs, and they fell flat in the wild-card round in Philadelphia. That same Eagles team rested key players in Week 18 and then marched to a Super Bowl title. The Packers have been hit so hard by injuries — it extends way beyond the loss of Micah Parsons to a torn ACL in Week 15 — that they made an incredible 23 roster moves just last week. Whether some time off for key players provides recovery time for a defense that was battered in Week 17 by the Baltimore Ravens remains to be seen. If time off in Week 18 was a clear-cut edge, Ben Johnson would have had a lot of guys in ballcaps watching Sunday’s game against the Lions.
Hammond: I’d put this down as a minimal advantage for Green Bay, but it probably won’t be a deciding factor. Despite playing their starters, the Bears escaped without any major injuries in Week 18, aside from nickel cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s concussion. They have plenty of time between now and Saturday night to rest their bodies. Many NFL teams keep their practices relatively light this time of year. Getting Rome Odunze and Ozzy Trapilo back healthy would be key.
Thompson: This old conundrum. On the one hand, the Packers players are rested. On the other hand, by missing a week, their players could be out of rhythm. In six previous seasons under Matt LaFleur, they’ve been to the playoffs six times, so they have a lot of institutional postseason experience. The bigger priority for them is health, so, yes, it’s an advantage for Green Bay.
2. Rome Odunze hasn’t played since Nov. 28. What can Bears fans realistically expect if he returns this week?
Biggs: Given the amount of time Odunze has missed, it seems like a long shot he would be on the field for close to 90% of the snaps, as he was earlier in the season before the foot injury popped up. Provided he feels good, and depending on how Johnson wants to use his personnel and tight ends, 30 to 40 snaps seems like a good target. The Bears need to dial up some specific plays for him as the primary read when he’s on the field. The foot injury really plagued Odunze after the Oct. 26 game in Baltimore. He averaged 6.8 targets, 2.6 catches and 37.6 yards in the five games before he was shut down.
Hammond: Odunze has been trying to stay off his injured foot for the past month, so it’s fair to assume his conditioning will be a question. Even if he’s back at practice this week, I wouldn’t expect him to see the playing time he was before the injury. But this is also the playoffs. If the Bears need Odunze, they’ll find ways to get him on the field in the biggest moments.
Thompson: Situational targets. Odunze has said his foot injury is about managing pain. Based on that, it seems prudent that the Bears would use him sparingly and mostly in high-leverage situations — those gotta-have-it downs. I doubt anyone expects him to resume a full workload, even in a win-or-go-home game against the Packers. But if Odunze can participate fully in practice this week, perhaps that thinking changes.
3. Fill in the blank: If the Bears beat the Packers, it will be because of __________?
Biggs: The running game pounding the Green Bay front and the Bears controlling tempo to protect their vulnerable defense. The Bears had 150 rushing yards in the Week 16 meeting at Soldier Field, and then the Ravens went into Lambeau Field and steamrolled the Packers for 307 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a Week 17 stunners. If the Bears can get momentum with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, that would open play-action passing for Caleb Williams and keep the Packers offense on the sideline.
Hammond: A fast start. In two games against the Packers, the Bears scored a grand total of three points in the first half. As Ben Johnson said after Sunday’s loss to the Lions, the Bears can’t afford to dig themselves into a hole. The offense needs to come out firing and lean on the running game that it has relied on so much this season. Don’t get me wrong, this game probably will come down to the final possession, but a team can dig itself out of only so many holes before it runs out of steam.
Thompson: An effective running game. The Bears are at their best when they’re eating up clock, and the running game is their best hope of achieving that. When that part of the offense is working, it puts less pressure on Williams’ arm and aids a defense that needs all the help it can get to stay off the field.
4. Alternatively, if the Packers beat the Bears, it will be because of __________?
Biggs: Another slow offensive start by the Bears, which plagued them in both regular-season meetings with the Packers, and an inability to mount a pass rush against Love. If the Packers quarterback has time to sit in the pocket, he can be deadly accurate. For all the talk of Odunze potentially returning, the possibility of nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon making his second return from injured reserve could be a bigger deal as the defense was picked apart in the middle of the field the last two weeks by Jared Goff and Brock Purdy.
Hammond: Love taking care of the football. The Bears defense has relied so much on turnovers. The Bears are 2-6 in games in which they recorded one or zero takeaways. They’re 9-0 when they record two or more. If the Packers protect the football, they will win this game. Love threw only six interceptions in the regular season. The Bears need to find ways to disrupt him in the pocket.
Thompson: Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The Bears defense is having trouble right now with field stretchers and good route runners, as we just saw with Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown. It’s unreasonable to expect the secondary to stick to receiving threats if the defensive line can’t get home. The Bears can downplay the numbers, but they finished with the slowest time to pressure (2.90 seconds) and the sixth-worst quarterback pressure rate (31.6%), according to NFL Pro’s Next Gen Stats.
5. How far will the Bears go in the playoffs? And while we’re at it, give us your prediction for the Super Bowl matchup.
Biggs: Saturday’s wild-card showdown — just the third playoff meeting between the teams — looks like a toss-up to me. The Bears are 2-13 against Green Bay in the last 15 meetings at Soldier Field, with one of those wins coming three weeks ago. Given the way the season has ended against better competition, the Bears look like a long shot to escape the divisional round, but you never know. Anything can happen in the playoffs, especially if the Bears defense can reignite its penchant for collecting takeaways. For the Super Bowl, how about a pair of No. 5 seeds — the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans — meeting Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium.
Hammond: Based on the way the Bears ended the regular season, I also have a hard time seeing this team advance beyond the divisional round. They can beat the Packers, but it’s no sure thing. I don’t see them winning more than one playoff game. Despite a poor ending to the regular season, I’ll stick with my pick and take the Rams to win the NFC. On the other side, I’ll go with the team that has home-field advantage and the NFL’s best pass rush: the Denver Broncos.
Thompson: Despite what we saw Sunday, I still believe the Bears will edge the Packers on Saturday. Perhaps the regular-season finale will be a sobering reminder that some magical game-turning play won’t always rescue them. They probably won’t be able to catch the defending champion Eagles off guard a second time, especially if Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts gash the Bears on the ground. As for the Super Bowl, I see the Broncos facing the Seattle Seahawks, as chalk as that sounds. I can’t believe I’m saying this about a Sam Darnold-led team, but I’m picking the Seahawks.