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Cincinnati Reds Early Season Check-In

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The Cincinnati Reds are 26-28, standing at third in the NL Central. It’s been an up-and-down season so far, with the team showing flashes of its potential, but not being able to fully click.

Despite some aspects of the team not clicking yet, many position groups have been strong, making it easy to believe the team may be able to right the ship as the season continues.

With that, let’s check in on who’s hot and who’s started the year off on the wrong foot.

Offense

On the surface level, the Reds seem to be holding up well on the offensive end, as they currently sit 9th in the league in runs scored. They, however, have struggled in the power department, sitting in 16th place league-wide with 54 home runs hit. Their biggest offensive pieces have not played to their potential to begin the season, which has yielded these unheralded results. With the names they had and the pieces that were returning, the offense was expected to be better than middle of the pack.

Elly De La Cruz – (SS)

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De La Cruz is slashing .251/.323/.417 for a .740 OPS and 99 OPS+. After breaking out last season with a 118 OPS+, De la Cruz has taken a step back at the plate and in the field. While his arm strength remains excellent, his overall defense has dipped a bit, with -4 OAA (8th percentile) this season. His strikeout woes have continued as he’s currently getting sent down on strikes in 28.7% of his plate appearances (8th percentile).

His slugging percentage has dropped by around 60 full points compared to last year, which can be attributed to his batted ball profile. He’s hitting ground balls at an astonishing 57.9% clip, far higher than the 46.3% rate from last year. In turn, his line drive rate has gone down, currently sitting at 10.7% rather than the 20.7% from last year. 10.7% is far too low for a power hitter of De La Cruz’s caliber, especially paired with his speed. A guy with his tools will gain nothing by beating the ball into the ground all day, and should be looking to send liners into the gap and over the wall, especially seeing as he plays in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Matt McLain – (2B)

McLain hot a little hot stretch through the team’s first five games, but has since tailed off significantly, looking lost at the plate. He’s currently slashing .184/.287/.319 with a .606 OPS and a 65 OPS+. He’s struggling heavily with strikeouts, going down on strikes in a staggering 31.7% of his plate appearances (3rd percentile).

With him and De La Cruz not playing at their full potential to begin the year, the top of the Cincinnati Reds’ order is significantly less imposing.

Spencer Steer – (3B/1B)

Steer has had a weird season so far, dealing with nagging injuries that occurred in spring. In 48 games, he’s slashing .222/.286/.339 with a .625 OPS and 69 OPS+. While, yes, he’s dealt with a couple of minor injuries here and there to start the year, he has undoubtedly taken yet another step back, making his .820 OPS mark in 2023 seem more and more like an anomaly rather than his baseline ability.

Will Benson – (OF)

After a brutal 2024 season, Benson has put those struggles behind and performed in a big way this season. In his small sample size of 15 games, he’s slashing .277/.333/.660 for a .993 OPS and 162 OPS+. His power is all the way back, mashing five home runs and three doubles already. He has brought some much-needed power into the Reds’ lineup.

Tyler Stephenson – (C)

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After starting on the IL to begin the season, Stephenson has returned to the lineup. Jose Trevino held down the starting catching job beautifully, but the added presence of Tyler Stephenson provides the team with a boost. While he hasn’t found his groove on offense just yet (.685 OPS in 19 games), if he’s able to start performing at his usual level, the Reds would be blessed with a strong pair behind the dish with Stephenson able to DH as well.

Jose Trevino – (C)

As previously mentioned, Trevino stepped up big time in lieu of Stephenson’s absence, slashing .298/.333/.500 with an .833 OPS and 123 OPS+ in 36 games, bringing along his usual strong defense as well. The former All-Star, who performed at a career-high level in 2022, must sustain his current performance on offense to maintain his success. Despite it not being his strong suit, the Reds are appreciative of any kind of offense from the backup catcher position, especially at this level.

Cincinnati Reds Pitching

The Cincinnati Reds once again find themselves in the middle of the pack, rankings-wise, sitting at 15th place league-wide in team ERA. Hunter Greene has continued to build on his breakout 2024 season, and is a legitimate CY Young candidate. Newcomers both in the starting rotation and bullpen have stepped up as well.

Let’s take a look at some pitchers who are standing out and some who are struggling in their shadows.

Hunter Greene – (SP)

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While he’s currently on the IL with a groin injury, he has been working towards a return sometime soon. In 49 2/3 innings this year, Greene has posted a career low 2.54 ERA with a 32.6 K% (93rd percentile) and a 5.2 BB% (86th percentile).

He has simply been everything a team looks for in an ace, as he will undoubtedly be spearheading this Cincinnati Reds rotation for years to come.

Brady Singer – (SP)

Springer is spending his first season in Cincinnati, and it has not gone as well as the Reds hoped for when they acquired him via trade this past winter. He has posted a 4.60 ERA in 11 starts this season, across 58 2/3 innings. His peripheral numbers weren’t pretty last season, although he still came away with strong results with a 3.71 ERA.

The concerns were there with the peripherals not looking as appealing, and they have reared their ugly head here in 2025.

4.62 xERA – (25th percentile)

.265 xBA – (30th percentile)

22.4 Chase% (7th percentile)

21.5 Whiff% – (23rd percentile)

10.0 BB% – (30th percentile)

11.8 Barrel% – (16th percentile)

43.4 Hard-Hit% – (32nd percentile)

34.2 GB% – (14th percentile)

Emilio Pagan – (RP)

In light of Alexis Diaz’s injury and poor performance at AAA, Pagan has effectively stepped up as the closer for the team and has done so impressively. He’s pitched to a solid 3.96 ERA in 25 appearances, posting elite peripheral numbers.

3.37 xERA – (69th percentile)

.206 xBA – (88th percentile)

31.9 Whiff% – (83rd percentile)

29.3 K% – (86th percentile)

 

 

 

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