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Since the all-star break, many White Sox fans (myself included) have been dealing with a foreign, perhaps uncomfortable emotion: hope. There are still many potential reasons that the team’s current rebuild could fail, but to see so many prospects contributing at the Major League level all at once is undoubtedly a positive. And while he has begun to cool off a bit, Colson Montgomery’s scorching hot start to his MLB career is something White Sox fans have been longing for, as only Luis Robert Jr. has hit the ground running in recent years the way Montgomery has.
And as I wrote in June, perhaps the biggest reason hope for the future is warranted is the potential ownership of Justin Ishbia. It may be frustrating to have to wait until some point during the 2029-2034 seasons for Ishbia to officially take over, but all things considered the situation is a major plus for fans, especially given the possible alternatives.
That said, despite my optimism for the Justin Ishbia era, the idea that he will have a significant impact on the team in the near future is just wishful thinking. Yes, the 2026 White Sox could certainly use some starpower from the free agent market to complement a quickly-developing core of young talent. But Justin Ishbia’s involvement in the team is very unlikely to have an impact on the near-term White Sox free agency plans.
While extremely specific information about the White Sox ownership structure is difficult to find publicly, we can ascertain enough from past reports from The Athletic, official press releases, and interviews with Jerry Reinsdorf to understand that the idea of Justin Ishbia spending on free agents before actually controlling the team is farfetched. This is because any capital that Ishbia funds to the White Sox for the time being will essentially come at a disadvantage to current investors.
In other words, Ishbia cannot simply write a check for the White Sox to sign a marquee free agent this winter. The money that he would be hypothetically contributing would result in him receiving additional shares in the team at its current valuation. This is not something that can be avoided, because ultimately the White Sox (like other teams) are a business.
Based on what has been reported by The Athletic, it seems as though some White Sox shareholders have sold to Ishbia, while others have chosen to hold on for now and sell in the future (or perhaps even keep their shares if permitted). When Ishbia does eventually purchase more shares of the White Sox, eventually obtaining controlling interest in the team, he will likely be buying out current investors at the valuation that is most up-to-date. Regardless of on-field performance, baseball team valuations consistently rise, so by contributing to free agent spending in the short-term, Ishbia would be buying more shares at a lesser valuation, which is not an appealing proposition for current team investors looking to maximize their returns.
White Sox fans have noted the language in the official press release from June, which states that Ishbia “… will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations.” While the end of that sentence is vague, it is very unlikely that it will lead to significant free agent spending due to the reasons above. Ishbia would need to dilute current White Sox investors, and they would not want this to happen.
Of course, the White Sox would ideally be able to acquire free agents without needing to dilute existing shareholders or raise capital. But as stated in the same press release, the team is in debt. This is not a surprise considering the pandemic and the loss of the NBC Sports Chicago deal.* Combining this with what we know about the team’s history of free agent spending, I do not anticipate any notable changes to the team’s offseason strategies until Ishbia formally takes over as owner in the future.
*It is possible that CHSN becomes more lucrative in the long-run, but the rollout of the network has been an objective disaster, and since viewership was down significantly for the Bulls and Blackhawks, it is reasonable to assume the same is true for the White Sox.
While it would be ideal for the White Sox to capitalize on the encouraging performances of young core players by making free agent splashes in the next couple years, the odds of such a free agent splurge are not any different than they were before we learned about Justin Ishbia’s potential ownership. Unfortunately, the economics of the situation will likely prevent this best case scenario from coming to fruition. Nonetheless, the team’s recent performance has been a pleasant surprise, and even without capital from Ishbia, there should at least be some additions to the team this winter considering there is only ~$37 million (assuming Luis Robert Jr.’s option is picked up) on the 2026 payroll aside from arbitration-eligible players.
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Featured Photo: © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
The post Amidst rebuild hope, more patience needed from White Sox fans appeared first on Sox On 35th.