Sunday’s 77th Primetime Emmy Awards arrive with clear favorites but few sure things.
Will the acclaim for “Adolescence” carry it to limited series dominance, or will “The Penguin” complete a run that began with big nomination numbers and continued with a big performance at the Creative Arts Emmys? Will top overall nominee “Severance” reign like “Succession” and “Shogun” did before it? And can any comedy stop “The Studio?”
Associated Press Writers Alicia Rancilio and Andrew Dalton share their predictions in 10 top categories, along with a bonus pick.
Best drama
Nominees: “Andor,” “Paradise,” “Severance,” “Slow Horses,” “The Diplomat,” “The Pitt,” “The Last of Us,” “The White Lotus”
RANCILIO: “Severance” and “The White Lotus” were the most talked about shows of the year. But “The White Lotus” seems made more for the acting categories. I’m going to say “Severance” will take this trophy.
DALTON: “Severance” felt like the peak of the prestige TV year when its episodes were rolling out. Yet as Emmys week arrives a “Shogun”-style sweep seems extremely unlikely. Still, it has felt destined for this award since halfway through its second season and despite the surges of “The White Lotus” and “The Pitt,” it’s going to win here.
Best actor in a drama
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” ; Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” ; Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”; Adam Scott, “Severance” ; Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
DALTON: Noah Wyle’s narrative is too powerful to deny. He gets five nominations without a win for “ER,” only to come back 30 years later and triumph for playing an older, warm-but-world-weary version of an emergency doctor on “The Pitt.” Fortunately, his actual performance was even more powerful than his personal story. His win will be well deserved on the merits.
RANCILIO: Hollywood loves a comeback and it’s time for Wyle to get his flowers. And, like you said, his win will be well deserved. Wyle’s performance is not just powerful but his character Dr. Michael “Robby” Robinavitch is the kind of teacher, manager and, yes, doctor we all wish we had. I also saw Wyle say in an interview that he does actually know how to perform stitches, and that’s pretty cool.
Best actress in a drama
Nominees: Kathy Bates, “Matlock”; Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”; Britt Lower, “Severance”; Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”; Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
RANCILIO: See above about Wyle for why I think Emmy voters will check the box for Kathy Bates. Having said that, Bates’ Maddie Matlock is such a layered performance of someone-seeking- justice-who-can-occasionally-feel-guilty. People are not all one thing, life is complicated, and Bates nails that.
DALTON: Bates raced to the front soon after “Matlock” premiered and it still feels like she’ll close the deal. It’ll be well-deserved for one of our great actors giving a bravura performance on the kind of network procedural that has been all-but-absent from the Emmys for years now.
Best supporting actress in a drama
Nominees: Patricia Arquette, “Severance”; Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”; Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”; Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”; Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”; Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”; Aimee Lee Wood, “The White Lotus”
DALTON: It’s nuts that the women of “The White Lotus” got four nominations in this category and it almost doesn’t feel like enough. I’d’ve liked to see the same number for the doctors and nurses of “The Pitt.” My heart here is with Katherine LaNasa, whose Nurse Dana was the best character in a hospital full of them. But my head tells me Carrie Coon will win as the best of many great wine-soaked and pill-addled performances on “The White Lotus.”
RANCILIO: This is a tough one because “The White Lotus” women have cornered the market but ultimately I think Parker Posey will prevail. Just like Jennifer Coolidge before her, Posey’s lines on the show weren’t just memorable, they were meme-worthy. And, I too, “don’t feel at this age I’m meant to live an uncomfortable life.”
Best supporting actor in a drama
Nominees: Zach Cherry, “Severance”; Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”; Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”; James Marsden, “Paradise”; Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”; Tramell Tillman, “Severance”; John Turturro, “Severance”
RANCILIO: I’m going to go with Walton Goggins here because this year he not only turned in another great acting performance but he’s been experiencing a bit of what’s known as a Pedro Pascal “zaddy moment” that likely put him at top of mind with voters.
DALTON: Goggins’ gaze during co-star and fellow nominee Sam Rockwell’s epic sobriety speech was one of TV’s most unforgettable images of the year. But Tramell Tillman produced several such moments, from his vicious banishment of John Turturo while wearing sharp ski gear to his drum-line dance with an interoffice marching band. And underneath the flash he showed an unknowable depth and inner life. He should get the lone acting win for “Severance.”
Best comedy
Nominees: “Hacks,” “The Bear,” “The Studio,” “Only Murders in the Building,” “Abbott Elementary,” “Nobody Wants This,” “Shrinking,” “What We Do in the Shadows”
DALTON: The blockbuster bounty of nominations pulled in by “The Studio” convinced me immediately that it was going to win best comedy amid beloved but stale competition. Bank on it.
RANCILIO: “The Studio” will win, but I’d like to give a sincere slow clap to each of the other nominees except “The Bear,” which has never been a comedy.
Best actor in a comedy
Nominees: Seth Rogen, “The Studio”; Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”; Jeremy Allen-White, “The Bear”; Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This”; Jason Segel, “Shrinking”
RANCILIO: About this time last year, Adam Brody’s performance in “Nobody Wants This” made me both giddy and nostalgic for the early aughts when he made nerds cool. Did you feel it too? Those feelings have not waned, but logic tells me Seth Rogen will walk away with a win.
DALTON: Brody’s charm is endless. He’ll use it to look gracious in defeat. Rogen took his well-established weedy persona to a place that both maintained what people love about him and brought new comic dimensions that even his mother could appreciate. He’ll get his first of many Emmys.
Best actress in a comedy
Nominees: Uzo Aduba, “The Residence”; Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This”; Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”; Jean Smart, “Hacks”; Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
DALTON: Emmy voters have never hesitated to keep picking the same winner. See Julia Louis-Dreyfus taking this trophy six straight times for “Veep.” Jean Smart has won for all three seasons of “Hacks” so far, and I’ll keep picking her until she loses.
RANCILIO: No disrespect to Louis-Dreyfus or to Smart but I felt then and now that there should be a cap on nominations for the same role. It gets to a point where you’re like, “We get it, Kelsey, you’re really good at playing Frasier.” Alas, I do not make the rules and so Smart will win.
Best limited series
Nominees: “Adolescence,” “The Penguin,” “Dying for Sex,” “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story,” “Black Mirror”
RANCILIO: If “Adolescence” doesn’t win here I’d be stunned. That is all.
DALTON: I’d be just as stunned. This is the surest thing of the night. It has to win. It’s too great a piece of art for voters to snub.
Best actor in a limited series
Nominees: Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”; Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”; Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent”; Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”; Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
DALTON: I think the real winner of this category should be Owen Cooper from “Adolescence,” whose lead-worthy performance as a child accused of murder was just astonishing. But like almost all uh, adolescents, he’s stuck in supporting. So I’m picking his TV dad, Stephen Graham, whose performance included the greatest visit to a home improvement store in screen history.
RANCILIO: I agree Cooper should be a contender in this category. It’s almost like Netflix accidentally switched the lead and supporting actor submissions for “Adolescence” so here we are. However, I’m going to go with Brian Tyree Henry. He’s not just extraordinary in “Dope Thief” but I think he’s very well-liked in general and Hollywood is a popularity contest.
Best actress in a limited series
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer”; Meghann Fahy, “Sirens”; Rashida Jones, “Black Mirror”; Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin”; Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex”
RANCILIO: Cristin Milioti fans already knew she could do stage work from “Once” and also comedy from “How I Met Your Mother” and the movie “Palm Springs.” Her work in “The Penguin” demonstrated that she has also mastered drama and can strike the right balance if she’s playing an unhinged maniac.
DALTON: The Emmys’ unprecedented embrace of a franchise show like “The Penguin,” with its 23 noms and eight Creative Arts wins, has been the surprise of the season so far. And Milioti somehow almost steals the show from Colin Farrell and his jowls. But Michelle Williams was a great new semi-stretch for Michelle Williams, who is building a body of TV work comparable to her big screen achievements. I’ll take her by a hair.
Wild card pick
DALTON: There’s no award for best talk show host, but when Stephen Colbert’s “Late Show” wins best talk series it’ll be a tribute to a beloved figure whose unceremonious cancellation for reasons perceived as political outraged many of his industry peers. And he’ll get his own trophy as an executive producer.
RANCILIO: Martin Short could pull off a semi-surprise win for best actor in a comedy over Rogen for “Only Murders” and I wouldn’t be mad at it.