The Cubs first baseman is too important to the offense to be in a platoon
The Cubs have had one of the strongest offenses in baseball by just about any metric you care to use this season. Their wRC+ of 120 indicates that they are 20 percent better than the league and park adjusted average at run creation. That’s also the third best tally in baseball behind the Yankees wRC+ of 130 and the Dodgers wRC+ of 128. However, after watching this weekend’s series against the Cincinnati Reds I found myself wondering if the offense could be even more potent if the team changed their philosophy just slightly. Specifically, I was wondering if Michael Busch should be in a platoon at all.
The Cubs’ 27-year-old lefthanded first baseman has been solid for the team so far this season, slashing .266/.366/.486 with eight home runs and a wRC+ of 141 in 205 plate appearances. He’s also been almost entirely playing the strong side of a platoon, with Justin Turner getting most starts against lefties.
On the surface, it’s easy to understand why this platoon exists. The Cubs love what Justin Turner brings to the clubhouse, Busch is a lefty and not quite as good of a hitter against lefties, platoons exist for a reason and this is one of them, case closed. However, digging deeper into the numbers, it’s just not as clear that this is situation where there should be a strict handedness platoon. Below you can Turner and Busch’s splits against right and lefthanded pitchers for 2024 and 2025:
It’s true that Turner has been better than Busch in extremely small sample sizes in 2025. It’s also true that Turner has better splits vs. lefties in both 2024 and 2025. However, here’s where it gets murky, Busch has very limited exposure to lefties in 2025 so far, only 28 plate appearances. In 100 PA last season he had a much better wRC+ of 103, which while worse than Turner’s 2024 mark of 119, it’s not a catastrophic lefty split by any means.
Additionally, while Busch’s numbers have taken off by not facing lefties, Turner’s numbers against both lefties and righties are just not in the same ballpark (pun maybe slightly intended) as his 2024 production. Put slightly differently, it isn’t too hard to squint and imagine a world where Busch improves on his 2024 against lefthanded pitching if given the opportunity to the point where he eclipses Turner’s wRC+ of 97.
There is another way to look at the difference Busch brings to the lineup. Using Baseball-Reference’s Stathead tool, I ran a list of every game this year where the Cubs scored more than 4 runs and then looked at 1) whether they won or lost that game and 2) whether Busch or Turner started. The 2025 Cubs have scored four or more runs 38 times this season. They are 31-7 in those games. Busch has been the starting first baseman in 26 wins and three losses. Turner has been the starting first baseman in five wins and four losses. And, that’s not just a matter of the Cubs being better or worse against lefties. The team wRC+ against lefties is 121 and against righties is 120.
In other words, the Cubs score more runs when Busch is in the lineup. Interestingly, there isn’t a clear pattern in the games with three or fewer runs that I could see, although it’s worth noting that four of the Cubs’ six wins in those 21 games have come since Daniel Palencia was named the team’s closer, but that’s a Short Porch for another day.
What say you, Cubs fans? Should Michael Busch face more lefties?