Can the Cubs sustain their hot start?
There is a wave of optimism on the North Side of Chicago as the Cubs continued to set the pace for offense in MLB with a 10-0 drubbing of the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley North yesterday. And there should be! As we’ll discuss further in tonight’s BCB After Dark, the Cubs are rolling. The offense is firing on all cylinders. The pitching has had some hiccups, but gotten it done. I’m as optimistic as anyone, but I wanted to take a look back because this feeling felt vaguely familiar if not exactly the same.
Last year on May 2, the Cubs lost to the New York Mets for a record of 19-13 through their first 32 games. This year on May 2, the Cubs beat the Brewers for a record of 20-13 through their first 33 games. That’s right, the difference in their won-lost record from last year to this year at this time is one extra game and one measly win (albeit a very important and satisfying one against the Brewers).
Obviously how you’re winning matters as much as if you’re winning, So after I got over my brief freakout that the Cubs were just off to another hot start like last year, I decided to do a bit of digging on some key indicators and found the below:
A few notes about this table. First, I included the 2016 Cubs for a baseline of excellence. Second, to ensure we were comparing similar stats I pulled the first 33 games for each season. For the 2024 season that didn’t change much, the Cubs played their 33rd game on May 3 rather than May 2. However, there was a big difference in time between 2016 and now due to changes in the early schedule. The Cubs didn’t play their 33rd game in 2016 until May 11.
The numbers are reassuring on a few different levels. First, the offensive production in 2025 is not merely keeping pace with 2016, it’s exceeding that very high bar so far. Additionally, while the run differential in 2016 was a jaw-dropping 37 runs better than the Cubs current 62 runs, that +62 mark leads MLB right now by four runs. Finally, there is a cautionary tale in the pitching. While the offense is the best in baseball, the pitching has allowed 140 runs, which is only good for 17th in MLB.
The bottom line is that the Cubs do seem to be a much better offensive team so far in 2025 than they were in 2024. They are even outpacing their own World Series Champion season standard, but if they really want to repeat that magical year, they’ll likely need to bolster their pitching between now and October.