Suppose you went into a long slumber at the end of the night on June 18, woke up again this Monday morning, did some stretching, made a big cup of coffee, then looked at the National League Central standings.
Your first thought would likely be, “What in the world happened?”
Based on where things stood less than two months ago, it’s almost unfathomable that by Monday morning, the Milwaukee Brewers would have a six-game lead over the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central.
That’s what the Cubs led the division by — actually, 6.5 games — over both the Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds at the end of the day on June 18. The Cubs were 45-28, the Brewers and Reds both 39-35.
According to the website FanGraphs, one of the top resources for advanced baseball stats and analytics, the Cubs’ chances to win the NL Central at that point were a robust 79.9%. The day before, on June 17, that number was 80.3%.
But unless something drastic happens with just 45 games left in the season, that’ll turn out to be the Cubs’ high-water mark in terms of division odds in 2025.
So, to answer the question of our theoretical hibernating baseball fan, what happened?
Brewers go nuclear
This is really the gist of it: The Brewers have gone on a tear that’s now one of the most torrid hot streaks in recent MLB history, and there’s nothing the Cubs could do about it.
It goes all the way back to May, when the Brewers fell to 21-25 on May 17. The Cubs were 27-19 on that date, plus the Brewers were also behind the Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals in the division.
But as of Monday morning, after their ninth straight win and their third consecutive series sweep this month, the Brewers are 73-44, the best record in all of MLB by a whopping five games.
Milwaukee is 52-19 — a .732 winning percentage! — since May 17. That includes 17-4 since the All-Star break and a perfect 9-0 in August, going into Monday night’s home game against the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates.
By comparison, while they’ve struggled more recently, the Cubs are still 40-31 since May 17. That’s a winning percentage of .563, not a torrid pace, but not exactly an extended poor stretch, either.
Yet over that time, the Brewers have gained 12.5 games on the Cubs, going from 6.5 back to six ahead.
When you play .563 baseball over nearly two months, maintain your status as one of the best teams in the league despite cooling off a little, and somehow LOSE 12.5 games to another team in the standings, there’s not much you can do but tip your cap.
No team in baseball would’ve kept up with the Brewers since the middle of May.
Where’s the offense?
The Brewers’ hot streak aside, let’s focus on the Cubs.
Specifically, what’s happened to an offense that was mashing the ball all over the place earlier this season, making things much easier on a pitching staff that was dealing with several critical injuries?
The Cubs are averaging 4.1 runs over 21 games since the All-Star break, and it’s no surprise they’re 10-11 in that time. In August, they’re 4-5 and are averaging just 3.2 runs per game.
When any offense is struggling, usually a quick glance at its key middle-of-the-order hitters will give you an answer as to why.
Sure enough, that’s the case for the Cubs.
It’s not entirely on them, but four key hitters — Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong — have slumped to varying degrees since the first half or so of the season.
Busch’s OPS is .428 in August after it was 1.002 in June and .907 in July. Over the last 28 days, it’s .520. Busch is still having a great season, with an OPS+ of 143 entering Monday (100 is league-average), so perhaps he’s simply in a slump that he’s due to break out of. He did belt a three-run homer in Saturday’s 9-1 win over the Cardinals.
Suzuki’s OPS is .626 over the last 28 days. But it’s .864 so far in August after it was .728 for all of July, so it’s possible he’s breaking out of a slump.
Crow-Armstrong, once a leading NL MVP candidate, is mired in a rough slump right now, with an OPS of .703 over the last 28 days and .445 over the last 14. In August, he’s just 3-for-33, with one extra-base hit, 13 strikeouts and no walks.
Remember, Crow-Armstrong is still just 23 years old, he’s never had this many plate appearances in a season, and he’s still a 6.1-WAR player in large part because he’s elite defensively in center field.
Offensive struggles are typical for young players after the league gets more info on them and pitchers adjust, so now Crow-Armstrong may just need to adjust back a little. He’ll probably need to see his walk rate increase in order to get out of his slump.
Perhaps the most curious case is Tucker, who hit very much like the middle-of-the-order bat the Cubs desired when they traded with the Houston Astros during the offseason to get him. Tucker had a .935 OPS in March/April, an .883 OPS in May and a .982 OPS in June.
But that’s dipped to .675 in July and .488 in August. Tucker has just one homer, four total extra-base hits and 10 RBI since the start of July. He last homered on July 19.
It’s hard to figure why Tucker’s power numbers have dropped so dramatically, but with any hitter, the reasons for a slump are varied. It could be bad luck, bad health, bad weather, pitchers adjusting, guys around them in the lineup struggling, and other factors.
The Cubs have scored 599 runs this season, which still ranks second in all of MLB entering play Monday, despite the recent offensive dip.
It’s pretty simple: If Busch, Tucker, Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong return to their earlier-season forms, the Cubs will score more runs again and win at a much higher rate than they have since the All-Star break.
Can they make the playoffs?
Actually, let’s break this down into two questions:
Can the Cubs catch the Brewers? Yes, but it’s becoming unlikely.
Can the Cubs make the playoffs? Yes, that’s highly likely.
As for the first question, there’s one thing the Cubs can do to cool off the Brewers, and that’s beat them head-to-head. They’ll get five chances to do that next week at Wrigley Field, from Aug. 18-21, when the teams conclude their season series with a five-game set.
Monday is a doubleheader, due to a rainout earlier this season, then they play again Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
But what happens in the six games before that series is very important.
The Cubs, who are off Monday, play the AL-best Blue Jays in Toronto from Tuesday through Thursday this week, then they return home to host the Pirates in a weekend series.
The Brewers host those same Pirates this week Monday through Wednesday, then they play the Reds in Cincinnati over the weekend after an off-day Thursday.
Remember, there are no Game 163s in MLB anymore if teams are tied atop the division after 162. The division winner would be determined by head-to-head record, and the Cubs and Brewers have split their first eight games this season evenly, four apiece, going into next week.
If the Cubs don’t cut into their six-game deficit by the end of the day on Sunday, they’ll be in a position where they’ll have to win four or even all five of those remaining games against the Brewers.
Entering play Monday, FanGraphs gives the Brewers an 80.5% chance to win the NL Central and the Cubs a 19.3% chance, basically a complete reversal since the middle of May.
However, to answer the second question posed here, the Cubs’ chances to make the playoffs by securing one of the three NL Wild Cards if they can’t catch the Brewers are in spectacular shape.
FanGraphs has the Cubs at 97.1% to make the playoffs. So for those doomsday fans out there, it’s far more likely the Cubs will catch the Brewers and win the division still than it is that they’ll miss the playoffs entirely.
They still hold the top NL Wild Card spot entering Monday, 1.5 games ahead of the San Diego Padres, who are second, and 4.5 ahead of the slumping New York Mets, who are third. To fall entirely out of the playoff picture, the Cubs would need drop all the way behind the Reds, who they lead by six games entering Monday, the Cardinals, who they lead by eight, or the San Francisco Giants, who they lead by 8.5.
Anything can happen, of course, but those scenarios are highly unlikely.
So while the hibernating fan from the beginning of our story may be shocked to find the Cubs so far behind the Brewers, their chances of making the playoffs for the first time in a non-COVID-shortened season since 2018 have actually increased steadily throughout the summer.
And if you get in, you always have a chance.