The NFL season is well underway. Of the 32 teams, 10 have unblemished 2-0 records, while the same number are winless. Before celebrating or sulking about your team’s chances of making the playoffs, there are still 15 games remaining in the regular season, which means that 88% of the regular season has yet to be played.
Yet good or poor starts have been remarkably prescient to determine a team’s postseason chances. However, it takes more than the first two weeks to provide useful predictive insights.
In 2024, nine teams started the season 2-0, with seven of them making the playoffs. Nine teams also started the season 0-2, with three of them making the playoffs. Certainly, starting the season on a small winning streak has lifted a team’s chances of making the playoffs, but a two-game losing streak has not completely ruled them out on missing postseason play.
The story in 2023 was similar. Nine teams started the season 2-0, with six of them making the playoffs. Nine teams also started the season 0-2, with just one of them making the playoffs.
Using the data over the past five seasons, 42 teams began the season with a 2-0 record. Of these, 33 made the playoffs, a 79% success rate. Of those teams that were winless after two games, five out of 43 teams advanced to the playoffs, a pedestrian 12% success rate. This means that a two-game winning or losing streak to begin the season places tailwinds or headwinds on advancing to postseason play.
Of course, as more games are played, more information becomes available, and the team records become far more predictive.
Using the first four weeks of play, in 2024, nine teams started the season with three or more wins, with eight of them making the playoffs. Ten teams also started the season with one or fewer wins, with just one of them making the playoffs.
Using the same four week data over the past five seasons, 52 teams began the season with three or more wins over the first four weeks. Of these, 44 made the playoffs, an 84% success rate. Of those teams that had one or fewer wins, five out of 55 teams advanced to the playoffs, or a 9% success rate.
A deeper dive into team records suggests that teams that begin their season 0-4 are mostly done for the season. The most recent exception was the Chargers, who began the 1992 season 0-4. They then proceeded to win 11 of their next 12 games, earning a wild card spot and even winning their wild card game.
On the flip side, a 4-0 start provides good evidence that a team is playoff caliber, but not always. The last team to miss the playoffs after a 4-0 start was the 2016 Broncos, who missed the playoffs at 9-7.
Though fans always feel that their team consistently gets the short end of the straw, some teams appear more snakebitten than others. The Vikings started the 2016 season with a record of 5-0, with Super Bowl possibilities being discussed. They proceeded to lose eight of the remaining 11 games, finishing their season 8-8, missing the playoffs. It was even worse for the 2003 Vikings, who started their season 6-0. They won just three of the remaining 10 games, finishing 9-7 and missing postseason play.
What these seasons teach is that every game, whether the first game of the season, or the last game, count the same in each teams’ final regular season record. Early season losses can be attributed to the luck of the schedule, while late season losses may be due to untimely injuries that upend the best laid plans for success on the field.
So should the 10 0-2 teams make plans for an early January vacation? Most can likely do so, but not all. Does anyone believe that the Chiefs are done for the season? Two tough losses do not define the remaining 15 games for them. Yet history suggests that their path to the postseason is now harder than if they had split the first two games, or better yet, won both.
For those teams that are encouraged or discouraged by their early season record, remember that games are played on the field, not on a computer. They are also played one game at a time, with one play, one field goal kick, making the difference between victory or defeat.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a computer science professor in the Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. As a data scientist, he uses his expertise in risk-based analytics to address problems in public policy, public health, security, air travel, and sports.
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