The Atlanta Braves’ rotation took another blow this week as Spencer Schwellenbach hit the IL with a fractured elbow. The 25-year-old righty, who was emerging as an All-Star candidate, will be shut down from throwing for the next four weeks, with a potential return to the mound not expected until September.
Schwellenbach Injured After Impressive Start
The injury follows a dominant outing on June 28 against the Phillies during which Schwellenbach struck out a career-high 12 batters over seven innings. However, the performance came at a cost.
“[Doctors] just used the term ‘freak accident,’” Schwellenbach said. “Honestly, from the bump in velo I’ve had in the last month, maybe my elbow just wasn’t ready for it. Who knows? It could have been anything.”
Schwellenbach’s Journey To Higher Velocity
That velocity spike has been a work in progress this season. On May 31 against the Red Sox, Schwellenbach threw 13 pitches at 99 mph or higher, a feat he had never achieved in his previous 33 professional starts. Just weeks later, the Braves are without the young star. The situation is similar to that of A.J. Smith-Shawver, who also saw a jump in velocity before tearing his UCL and undergoing season-ending surgery.
Braves manager Brian Snitker expressed his frustration amidst the team’s fourth significant rotation loss this season.
“I hate it for him,” Snitker said. “The way he was going and the consistency that he’s shown and what he was doing for this team, he’ll be fine. He just keeps getting better.”
Schwellenbach’s Standout Stats
Schwellenbach, who owns a 7–4 record and a 3.09 ERA in 17 starts, has established himself as a top performer. According to Baseball Savant, his fastball run value ranks in the top 2% of all MLB pitchers and his overall pitching metrics, including off-speed run value and chase rate, are among the league’s top 10%.
The Braves’ Injury-Ridden Rotation
The loss further decimates an already thin Braves rotation. Chris Sale is sidelined with a fractured rib cage until at least August. Smith-Shawver is out for the year. Reynaldo López’s timeline for a return from shoulder surgery remains unclear. With Schwellenbach now joining that group, the team is relying on inexperienced arms, including 20-year-old Didier Fuentes.
The alternatives haven’t been promising. Bryce Elder has struggled significantly. In 13 starts, Elder has posted a 5.82 ERA and a 2–5 record. His advanced metrics are even more troubling, with an expected ERA, batting average against and pitch run value all ranking in the bottom 10% of the league. His off-speed pitches in particular fall into the bottom 1%.
“It’s hard for any organization to handle [losing four starters],” Snitker said. “Every day, it seems like it’s something else.”
As September looms as a potential return for Schwellenbach, the Braves will need to find answers if they hope to stay afloat in the playoff race.
Main Photo Credits: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
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