A divisional matchup for the weekend.
The Reds were hanging around second place in the NL Central, behind the Cubs, until an early May stretch where they lost nine of 11 dropped them into third. A five-game winning streak got them hot again, until they dropped the last two of a three-game series to the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
For more on the Reds, here’s Wick Terrell, manager of our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.
The Reds can really pitch!
To date, they rank third overall in fWAR by starting pitchers (5.5), and that’s despite Hunter Greene missing time and Chase Petty — his fill-in — getting shelled for 13 earned runs in just 5⅓ IP in spot starts. Greene, of course, is slated to return to the mound for Friday’s series opener between these two clubs, and he’ll do so having pitched as much like a bona fide ace as any pitcher in baseball since the start of the 2024 season. He’s the owner of a 2.66 ERA in that span, which is fourth-best among the 94 MLB pitchers who’ve logged at least 160 IP in that time.
Lefties Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have, in many ways, been equally as effective as Greene so far in 2025, and they’ll round out the Reds starters for this series. It’s a good thing they’re both on the Reds and not somewhere else in the NL Central, though, as the Reds offense simply can’t get any true momentum going this season — especially against LHP. Bailey Falter and Andrew Heaney just shut them down completely at the tail end of the Reds series in Pittsburgh, and of course they’ll face Matthew Boyd to start the series against the Cubs.
Their overall season numbers offensively aren’t garish, but they’re buttressed by having scored 68 runs in their four most productive games of the season (including a 24 run outburst against Baltimore that came largely at the expense of position players pitching). The stark reality is that they’ve already been shut out eithg times this year and the 14 games they’ve scored one or fewer runs is tied for the most in all of baseball this season. Injuries across the roster haven’t helped, obviously, but there’s still seemingly a lot better offense in that dugout than what we’ve seen on a day to day basis, something that hitting coach Chris Valaika has yet to truly unlock.
If these Reds truly have any designs on winning the NL Central this year, well, that’s going to have to start this weekend against the Cubs. Anything less than a series victory begins to bury them into territory from which teams usually do not recover in these kinds of races, and I expect to see them treat these games as such — especially after Thursday’s day-off to reset the bullpen.
Fun facts
Today’s game, the Cubs’ 51st of the season, will be their first against the division-rival Reds. They will host the Reds for the first time next Friday. The Cubs still have not played the Cardinals, and will not until June 23, at St. Louis.
…
From 2015-17, the Cubs went 20-8 at Cincinnati, winning seven series, losing one and splitting one.
Since 2018, they are 24-34, winning four series, losing eight and splitting six. They were swept in three series, including a three-game set in their first visit last year. They split a four-game series later. The Cubs swept three games in 2015 and 2016. They last won two of three in 2022. This will be their sixth series at GABP since then.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Friday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (4-2, 2.98 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, 3.86 FIP) vs. Hunter Greene, RHP (4-2, 2.36 ERA, 0.810 WHIP, 3.08 FIP)
Saturday: Colin Rea, RHP (3-0, 2.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 3.60 FIP) vs. Andrew Abbott, LHP (3-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 3.13 FIP)
Sunday: Ben Brown, RHP (3-3, 5.44 ERA, 1.554 WHIP, 3.51 FIP) vs. Nick Lodolo, LHP (4-4, 3.22 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 3.62 FIP)
Times & TV channels
Friday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Saturday: 3:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Sunday: 12:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Reds market territories)
Prediction
This is the first time the Cubs will face two lefthanded starters in a series. While the Cubs have a good OPS vs. LHP overall (.827), they have not fared well vs. LH starters (6-5, compared to 24-15 vs. RH starters).
As you know, I like picking “two of three” so I’ll stick with that. But this one will be a bit tougher than other recent series, and the Reds could possibly win it.
Up next
The Cubs return to Wrigley Field to open a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies Monday afternoon.