The Cubs visit the newly-renamed park in Houston.
Two members of the Cubs, Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly, will be having homecomings this weekend in Houston, where both had several productive years and won World Series rings in 2022.
For more on the Astros, here’s William Metzger, managing editor of our SB Nation Astros site The Crawfish Boxes.
Entering this series, the Astros occupy their accustomed position in first place in the AL West, 6½ games ahead of the Seattle Mariners. And they are 1½ games ahead of the Yankees for second place overall in the American League.
OK, sounds about like what you’d expect from the Houston team since 2017. Nothin’ to see here.
Well, when the season started, this writer predicted a third-place finish in the AL West. No Alex Bregman, no Yusei Kikuchi, no Justin Verlander, and from the 2022 World Series starting pitching staff, only Framber Valdez remains available. Oh yeah, they’re also missing a certain right fielder whose name will go unmentioned for now. Not to mention a barren farm system after about ten straight years of trading prospects at the trade deadline.
And it gets worse. Of the five Opening Day starters, only two remain due to injury. Roughly sixty percent of Astros games are started by Triple-A/Quad-A players. And I’m not talking about high-pedigree, high-ceiling young prospects either. I mean, guys who probably shouldn’t be pitching on a contending team.
So how are the Astros 15 games over .500?
Let’s start with the part Cubs fans care most about.
As good as Kyle Tucker has been for the Cubs, I think the Astros got as much as they gave up for 2025 alone. And the Cubs have only one year of Tucker at a price that doesn’t wreck your payroll. On the other hand, the Astros got a young slugging third baseman under extended team control and a potential five-tool superstar converted to right field for six years.
Third baseman Isaac Paredes is third among MLB third basemen in fWAR at 2.5 (ahead of the injured Alex Bregman) and, to Astros fans’ surprise, almost as good a defender as the former Astros Gold Glover.
The Astros knew that Cubs first-round draft pick, Cam Smith, was the centerpiece of the Tucker trade from their point of view, but NO ONE expected him to play THIS year. And certainly not at an entirely new position. So how’s he doing?
As a 22-year-old rookie who barely tasted Double-A last year, Smith is hitting 113 wRC+ with 1.3 fWAR and flashes of brilliant defense in right field. If and when he learns to elevate his contact, Smith could become Kyle Tucker’s equal behind the plate and better in the field.
What’s happened to Hayden Wesneski, third wheel in the big trade? He’s taken a long hiatus to consult with Tommy John.
OK, so Isaac Paredes has replaced Alex Bregman, and Cam Smith has mitigated the loss of Kyle Tucker, but how are the Astros better than last year without injured slugger Yordan Alvarez?
Jeremy Pena.
A career 100 wRC+, he’s at 148 this year. His 4.0 fWAR leads the league among shortstops.
Then there’s Jake Meyers, a defensive specialist in center field. He has elevated an 87 career wRC+ into a 120 in 2025. His 2.1 fWAR is fifth among center fielders in MLB, and his Fangraphs Def rating rates tenth.
You might have heard that Jose Altuve is playing left field this year. He’s about as bad at this point in his career in left as he is at second, but he makes the plays he’s supposed to while batting third in the lineup. With Alvarez out, Altuve sees a lot of time at DH.
Now let’s talk about pitching. Because that’s the secret sauce of the Astros’ 2025 success.
First, Hunter Brown. He’s clearly in the discussion for Cy Young with an 8-3 record, 1.74 ERA. 118 Ks, 0.888 WHIP and a .175 opponents BA.
With Framber Valdez having a Framberin Man kind of season, the Astros have one of the best 1-2 starting pitching combinations in baseball.
Behind the Quad-A guys, late 20’s rookies Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter, Ryan Gusto, and journeyman Jason Alexander, the Astros have a 14-13 record.
Then there’s the bullpen. We have fond memories of “Elvis,” but we don’t need him.. Setup man and closer Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader have nearly matching 1.72 and 1.73 ERAs, respectively, and Hader has 21 saves without a blown save, a seeming All-Star lock. But the real surprise is the story of the heretofore unknowns: Bryan King (3.18 ERA), Steven Okert (2.52 ERA), Bennet Sousa (1.57 ERA) and Shawn Dubin (1.33 ERA).
The Astros staff is third in MLB in ERA at 3.40. But the bullpen is second with a 3.22 ERA. On the other hand, Astros batters are merely average, rated fifteenth in batting with a .720 OPS.
One more factor in the Astros’ success, a 17-7 record in one-run games. Their Pythagorean record at the time of this writing is 46-35, two games worse than their actual record. But the Astros expect the return of starters Spencer Arrighetti, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. relatively soon, not to mention their main slugger, Yordan. At this point, the Astros feel pretty confident about winning yet another AL West title, their eighth in the last nine years.
Fun facts
The Cubs played 18 games against Houston in 1962, its first season of play, when its name was the Colt .45s. After this series, they will have played a total of 18 against the Astros in the 13 seasons since Houston switched to the American League.
The teams played 605 games when the Colt .45s/Astros were in the National League, with the Cubs winning 329 and losing 376, a .467 percentage. At Houston, they were just .412 (145-207).
They are .533 (8-7) since the Astros left the NL, but .333 (3-6) in Texas. They won two of three in 2016, lost two of three in 2019 and were swept in 2023. Last year, the Cubs won all three games at Wrigley Field.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Friday: Cade Horton, RHP (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.293 WHIP, 3.78 FIP) vs. Brandon Walter, LHP (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 3.67 FIP)
Saturday: Colin Rea, RHP (4-2, 3.84 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 4.14 FIP) vs. TBD
Sunday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (7-5, 4.47 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 5.17 FIP) vs. Framber Valdez, LHP (8-4, 2.88 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 3.04 FIP)
Times & TV channels
Friday: 7:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Saturday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map)
Sunday: 1:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Prediction
This series will be a good challenge for the Cubs. Not only are the Astros apparently poised to run away with the AL West, they are starting two lefthanders in this series, and you know how the Cubs have done vs. LH starters. (Although, their W-L vs. LH starters is 11-11, which isn’t terrible.)
Houston is 30-13 at newly-named Daikin Park and just swept the Phillies there, although they scored just five runs in the entire series. If the Cubs can hold down the Houston offense, maybe they can win this series.
Hoping for the best, but this might be a one-out-of-three trip to Houston.
Up next
The Cubs have Monday off, then host the Cleveland Guardians in a three-game series at Wrigley Field beginning Tuesday evening.