The Cubs lost ace southpaw Justin Steele for the year last week when it was announced he’d need season-ending elbow surgery, but Steele didn’t actually go under the knife until Friday. Prior to today’s game against the Diamondbacks, manager Craig Counsell updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) on Steele’s status post-surgery and offered some positive news for fans in Chicago. Bastian notes that the Cubs described Steele’s procedure as a “revision repair” of the UCL in his left elbow. That’s a less serious procedure than Tommy John surgery, which entirely replaces the UCL. Counsell suggested that the initial timeline for Steele’s return to action is roughly one year, which would suggest that he can be expected back on the mound fairly early into the 2026 season.
It’s great news for the Cubs and Steele, particularly because Steele already had Tommy John surgery early in his career when he was still a prospect. Second Tommy John surgeries typically come with a rehab on the longer side of the surgery’s typical 12-to-18 month recovery timeline, and occasionally require an even longer layoff. Had Steele required full Tommy John surgery, it wouldn’t have been a shock to see Steele not take a big league mound again until the final weeks of the 2026 season, as was the case for Jacob deGrom when he returned from his second Tommy John surgery last September after nearly 17 months spent rehabbing.
Fortunately, that wasn’t the case, and the Cubs will be able to plan for the 2026 campaign with a reasonable expectation that Steele will be a big part of their rotation mix next year, as was the case for the Braves after Spencer Strider underwent an internal brace procedure early in the 2024 season that came with a similar one-year timetable. Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, and Dylan Cease are among a handful of front-of-the-rotation arms who figure to be highly sought after this winter, but an early 2026 target for Steele could make the Cubs less inclined to get involved in the markets for those pitchers, especially if they decide to commit their free agent dollars to a pursuit of a long-term deal with star outfielder Kyle Tucker.
While the Cubs can expect Steele to pitch for the club again in 2026, the hit to their short-term rotation depth could still lead them to pursue pitching help this summer. The Cubs appear focused on internal solutions for the time being, and Colin Rea has held his own impressively since subbing in for Steele after opening the year in the bullpen, with effective (although brief) starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks during which he’s surrendered just two runs with ten strikeouts against one walk across 8 1/3 innings of work. That sensational production can’t be expected to last forever, but with top pitching prospect Cade Horton striking out 37.5% of his opponents at Triple-A it’s at least possible the Cubs could enter July feeling good about their rotation for the stretch run.
Plenty of arms should be available at the deadline if they do end up needing reinforcements, with the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara standing out as the most frequently discussed name. Aside from Alcantara, players like Tyler Anderson, Seth Lugo, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen could all theoretically be available on the trade market depending on the where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings this summer. Aside from Alcantara, each of those players can become free agents following the 2025 season. That could be preferable for the Cubs in the event they do pursue pitching help given that Steele is expected to pitch most of the 2026 season and each of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon are already under contract for next year, while the club holds an option on Rea.