These factors could be the difference between making the playoffs or not
It’s Opening Day, y’all, and hope springs eternal around Wrigley Field. Most projection systems see the Cubs as being competitive in a weak National League Central division, but in shouting distance of first place. Today I want to take a look at the factors that could make or break our October dreams as Cubs fans.
Is this the Seiya we’ve been waiting for?
Seiya Suzuki has had his ups and downs in a Cubs uniform so far. He entered the league as the NL Player of the Month in his first April in MLB, and then the league adapted. Seiya struggled to adapt back, dealt with some injuries that kept him from a hot start last season, and then, well, you can see it in this 15-game rolling wOBA chart from FanGraphs:
That peak to end the season was more sustained than any of Seiya’s previous peaks and it has continued this spring. Last August Seiya was benched for a brief reset and man, what a reset it was. After August 9 he slashed .356/.414/.672 with 11 home runs and a wRC+ of 187, which as a reminder means he was 87 percent better than league average at creating runs. This spring he’s continued to rake, slashing .459/.512/1.081 with six home runs and a wRC+ of 307.
Now, that spring burner is going to cool off a bit, but if it cools off to Seiya’s August and September last year, that is still a remarkable player. It would likely garner Seiya an All Star appearance and some MVP votes, which would certainly go a long way towards a great Cubs season.
Counselling the bullpen
We talked a lot about how the Cubs underperformed their Pythagorean win expectations last season. By their run differential they should have finished 90-72, which would have secured a playoff bid. They fell far short of that with an 83-79 record, just missing the postseason.
There are likely a lot of things that led to the Cubs falling short of the postseason last year, however one of them was certainly the bullpen. It took the Cubs a few months to settle on their lockdown bullpen at the ends of games as Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay settled into shutdown roles at the end of games. Part of what fell apart at the end of the season was the lack of bullpen depth, which was exposed when Alzolay hit the injured list late in the season.
Craig Counsell has demonstrated that he’s excellent at managing close games. Forgive me for citing Reddit here, but it’s where the data is laid out most plainly. Between 2016 and late last September, the Brewers were 83 games over .500 in one-run games. If that record translates to his new team, it is likely the difference between the Cubs being in the postseason or not.
Bellinger brings it — again
I’ve written a lot about Cody Bellinger’s bounce-back 2023 with the Cubs last season and why I think it may be replicable in 2024. For the 2024 Cubs to exceed last year’s win total and garner their first playoff birth since 2020 the Cubs centerfielder will need to bring it again.
Bellinger makes the Cubs better offensively and defensively. He’s a plus defender in centerfield but can also play a solid first base should Michael Busch struggle at his new defensive position.
Offensively, Bellinger doesn’t need to hit at the same level of his 2023 campaign to be a key contributor for this Cubs team (but the Cubs will certainly not complain if the NL Comeback Player of the year posts a .307/.356/.525 slashline one more time). Depending on the projection system you use (I’m referencing The Bat), Bellinger’s regression would still be a very good .260/.325/.463 with 24 home runs and 19 stolen bases. In a very small sample size of 26 plate appearances in Spring Training Bellinger slashed .300/.389/.483 with a home run. It’s too small of a sample size to glean much of anything from, although the K rate was significantly higher than last season and that .300 average looks like it’s bolstered by an unsustainable .400 BABIP.
Morel’s third act
Christopher Morel will begin his third season in the major leagues with a shot at being the everyday third basemen for the North Siders. It’s a position where the Cubs could improve considerably. In 2022 the Cubs put up just 1.7 fWAR at the hot corner — the seventh-lowest amount of WAR in MLB. In 2023 it was not much better with just 1.8 fWAR generated from Cubs third basemen, the 10th-lowest in the league. Cubs third basemen have slashed .223/.297/.400 with a wRC+ of 93 across the last two seasons.
Enter, stage left, Christopher Morel. There is no question that Morel can outperform those offensive numbers. Morel, who will turn 25 during the 2024 season, has slashed .241/.311/.471 so far in his big league career across 854 plate appearances. He’s mashed 42 home runs during that time and posted a wRC+ of 114 so far in the Show.
But, there are questions about Morel’s ability to field third successfully. He doesn’t need to be Nolan Arenado at third to win the job, but he likely does need to demonstrate at least league average defensive abilities. So far this spring it’s been a bit of a mixed bag defensively for Morel. He’s a remarkable athlete who makes very difficult plays that no other player in the third base mix for the Cubs would make. He’s also young and has an arm that reminds me a bit of Shawon Dunston’s cannon back in the day, both in terms of his throwing strength and his accuracy.
If Morel can limit the errors and field third base at a league average level, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a special season his third time through the league.
Shōta shows off
On Monday at Wrigley Field, Shōta Imanaga will become the first player in MLB history to make his big league debut at Wrigley Field’s home opener. I get chills just writing that and you know I’ve already got tickets that will allow for an excellent view of the Cubs newest pitcher.
Imanaga has been a bit of an enigma in Spring Training. Now, I want to caveat everything I’m about to say with the fact that we all know Spring Training stats aren’t all that indicative of anything in the regular season. Pitchers are often working on new things, or just trying to get warmed up for the season. In Imanaga’s case, he’s learning to pitch with a new ball, in a new league, in a new country. I’m sure it’s a lot.
And also, Spring Training and last year’s World Baseball Classic are really all we have to go on with Imanaga in an MLB context. Let’s start with the good.
The strikeout potential is unreal. In 12⅔ innings pitched this spring Imanaga struck out 25 batters. That translates to a 41.7 percent strikeout rate. It’s truly absurd. Only two pitchers in baseball with at least 20 innings pitched last season posted strikeout rates higher than 40 percent. They are both closers: Félix Bautista (46.4 percent) and Aroldis Chapman (41.4 percent). That’s it. That’s the list. The third highest strikeout rate in baseball was a starter: Jacob deGrom (39.1 percent). I am not saying that Imanaga is Jacob deGrom, to be clear. I think that number is going to come back to Earth somewhere closer to where mere mortal starting pitchers live — but I also think it’s safe to say that Shōta Imanaga’s strikeout potential is as good as advertised.
He’s also demonstrated very good command so far this spring with only three walks throughout the spring. If you’re more of the K/9 BB/9 type this translates to a K/9 of 17.76 and a BB/9 of 2.13. Both numbers are not just good, they are elite.
But the spring ERA is 5.68, because, frankly, Imanaga got BABIP’d to death in one of those starts (his spring BABIP is .533) and gave up a couple of no doubt long balls as well. Home runs were a concern some clubs had regarding Imanaga and how his stuff would translate to MLB. While I’m not even close to worried about it based on fewer than 20 innings, it will be worth keeping an eye on whether Imanaga struggles with getting hit hard when batters do hit him.
If Imanaga can limit the hard hits while posting strikeout and walk rates within a standard deviation of the ones above, that signing is probably the deal of the offseason. It would also give the Cubs a pretty powerful number two starter to slot in behind Justin Steele on the off-chance it all comes together and they find themselves playing in the postseason.