Illinois farmers have almost finished this year’s harvest and, for many, it’s a bin-buster. Crop yields have set records, and storage facilities are operating at full capacity across much of the grain belt.
American farmers once again have proven to be world beaters, capable of outproducing all comers. Unfortunately, their hard-won competitive advantages are being squandered.
The Trump administration’s trade wars have cost Illinois farmers dearly and many do not anticipate making a profit from this year’s harvest. On top of the direct impact from the Trump tariffs, inflation has raised the cost of labor, fertilizer, pesticides and other basic inputs.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to announce another huge taxpayer-funded farm bailout on top of massive direct-payment plans Congress has previously approved. Farmers always say they’d rather sell their crops for a profit than take a government handout, but today they’re pushing hard for government checks because they know the marketplace has changed for the worse.
Until recently, China was a hungry customer of U.S. farm exports. But the trade war Trump launched during his first term put the nation’s agriculture sector in harm’s way. The Chinese retaliated against his tariff attacks by cutting off exports of soybeans, a key Illinois cash crop, along with pork, sorghum, dairy and other commodities.
China didn’t stop there. In the years between Trump’s two terms, Chinese agricultural companies made massive investments in expanding the production and export capacity of Brazil, which has become China’s No. 1 soybean supplier, by far.
The Chinese built infrastructure such as ports and railways and supplied low-cost fertilizer to support increased production. Big swaths of forest and savannah were cleared to increase arable acreage. As a result, the Chinese don’t depend on Midwest beans anymore.
Even before Trump imposed tariffs on China this year, Brazilian beans were accounting for about 70% of Chinese imports, while the once-robust U.S. share had dwindled to 21%. Predictably, as the trade war heated up, China flexed its market power, dropping its purchases of U.S. soybeans to zero. Trump could ill afford that hit and after he backed down from his trade demands, the Chinese agreed to make some large purchases, but they have all the leverage now.
That creates a dilemma for policymakers. The U.S. either needs to keep funneling billions into supporting excess domestic production, or the farm economy vital to rural Illinois will face a reckoning. In fact, both of those negative outcomes could come to pass, and that’s just one long-term consequence of scrapping America’s status as the global leader of free trade.
This page has long supported free trade. The administration’s rejection of it undermines economic growth, raises prices for consumers and hurts job creation — not only in agriculture, but also manufacturing and other sectors with global supply chains.
American corporations have coped with the trade war roller coaster this year partly by absorbing costs, but also by passing along price increases. They’ve worked overtime to secure trade exemptions and reorganize supply chains, so today many pay much less than the headline-grabbing tariff rates that Trump has touted.
With the midterm elections coming in November and an electorate furious about the rising cost of living, the administration may be backing away from further tariff attacks. Plus, the U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on a lower-court decision that challenges the legality of the president imposing tariffs via executive order, bypassing Congress.
Even if the court rules against the administration, as appears likely, a lot of damage has been done. And once it’s done, it is difficult to undo.
Consider diplomatic and trade relations with key allies. Under Trump, the U.S. has become an unreliable partner. And while the American economy is so big that other countries continue to negotiate on trade, they recognize that the U.S. can be expected to arbitrarily tear up agreements it once honored. Any future deals will take that risk into account, hurting America’s negotiating position.
It’s past time for Congress to step in and save what it can of a battered farm economy. The best route to comprehensive reform is through a new Farm Bill, the legislation that traditionally revamps farm and food stamp programs every five years.
The outlook for a 2026 Farm Bill, however, is bleak. In ending the recent government shutdown, lawmakers passed a one-year extension of the obsolete 2018 Farm Bill — the third extension since that measure expired in 2023. Previously approved programs will continue, but without updates needed for today’s drastically different marketplace.
Instead, the White House reportedly has moved billions of dollars from the Agriculture Department’s Commodity Credit Corp. into a slush fund that it could use for tariff relief. Trump made the same move during his first term, funneling taxpayer money directly into the pockets of farmers, ranchers and wealthy landowners.
Short-term cronyism will do nothing to put the U.S. farm economy back on track. Without more comprehensive action, the long-term viability of rural economies will be in jeopardy and profits will remain elusive on the farm.
America’s grain belt could feed the world if politicians would let free trade flourish. Instead, American agriculture, over time, is becoming less important to the global food chain and less lucrative for the farmer — and that’s bad news for Illinois.
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