If the Cubs are going to make a late-season push to catch the Milwaukee Brewers atop the NL Central Division, they’ll have to get started this week.
They likely won’t get another shot after this.
The Cubs host the Brewers in a rare five-game series at Wrigley Field from Monday through Thursday. It was originally a four-game series, but Monday became a day-night doubleheader due to a rainout earlier this season.
This week will conclude the teams’ season series, which is tied 4-4 through eight games going into Monday. So whoever wins the series this week will also win the season series and own the tiebreaker in the event of a tie after 162 games.
At the moment, however, the Cubs’ odds of catching the Brewers are slim. Milwaukee has been on a torrid pace for months now, ripping off a franchise-record 14-game winning streak that was finally snapped Sunday afternoon in an extra-innings loss to the Reds in Cincinnati.
The Brewers are a remarkable 29-5 over their last 34 games, including winning streaks of 11 and 14 games, and enter this week’s series with a bulging eight-game lead over the Cubs as they try for their third consecutive NL Central title and fourth in the last five seasons since the Cubs won it in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
The Cubs haven’t necessarily played poorly over that stretch, but mainly because of a slumping offense, they haven’t been able to string together a significant winning streak, either. That, coupled with Milwaukee’s incredible run, is why the Cubs are suddenly so far back in the division after leading it for over half the season.
But the news isn’t all bad.
The Cubs will take some momentum into this week’s series after scraping together enough offense late in the game both Saturday and Sunday to win a home series against the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates. And they still hold the top NL Wild Card spot entering this week, 1.5 games ahead of the San Diego Padres and 4.5 game ahead of the New York Mets.
To completely drop out of the three NL Wild Card positions, the Cubs would have to fall all the way behind the Reds, who they lead by six games with just 39 remaining.
When the day started Monday, FanGraphs had the Cubs’ playoff odds at a healthy 98%, so they’re still a virtual lock to make their first postseason appearance in a full season since 2018. However, their odds of winning the NL Central, according to FanGraphs, were just 7.2%, compared to the Brewers’ 92.8%, entering their five-game series.
In order to have any realistic chance to win the division, the Cubs probably have to take at least four of five from the Brewers this week. They’d still be three games back even with an improbable series sweep, but with a whole month to go and the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Cubs’ chances of winning the division would increase significantly by the end of the week if they could somehow pull that off.
Here’s a glance at this week’s matchups:
Brewers (78-45) at Cubs (70-53)
Monday
1:20 p.m., Game 1 (make-up of June 18)
- Probable starters (per MLB.com): Brewers, Freddy Peralta (14-5, 2.90 ERA) vs. Cubs, Cade Horton (7-3, 3.07 ERA).
- How to follow: Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (out-of-market), TV; 670 FM The Score, WRTO AM 1200, radio.
7:05 p.m., Game 2
- Probable starters (per MLB.com): Brewers, TBD vs. Cubs, TBD.
- How to follow: Marquee Sports Network, TV; 670 FM The Score, WRTO AM 1200, radio.
Tuesday
7:05 p.m.
- Probable starters (per MLB.com): Brewers, Brandon Woodruff (4-0, 2.06 ERA) vs. Cubs, Matthew Boyd (11-6, 2.46 ERA).
- How to follow: Marquee Sports Network, TV; 670 FM The Score, WRTO AM 1200, radio.
Wednesday
7:05 p.m.
- Probable starters (per MLB.com): Brewers, Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 3.89 ERA) vs. Cubs, TBD.
- How to follow: Marquee Sports Network, TV; 670 FM The Score, WRTO AM 1200, radio.
Thursday
1:20 p.m.
- Probable starters (per MLB.com): Brewers Quinn Priester (11-2, 3.48 ERA) vs. Cubs, TBD.
- How to follow: Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (out-of-market), TV; 670 FM The Score, WRTO AM 1200, radio.