Could the former ace recapture his past glory?
If this were 2021 or 2022 and the Cubs were in the place they are now, of course Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcántara would be one of their top pitching targets.
But it’s not. It’s 2025, Alcántara missed an entire season after Tommy John surgery and his results since his return this year have been… well, let’s be charitable and say “uneven.”
He’s made several good starts, including his last outing against the Padres, where he threw seven innings and allowed four hits and one unearned run. That’s really good!
What isn’t good is the fact that he’s allowed at least four runs in 12 of his 20 starts this year and at least six runs six times. His ERA is a devilishly bad 6.66 and his K rate is down significantly from pre-TJS, and his walk rate is up.
He still throws hard, though:
Baseball Savant
This would be a risky player to acquire if the Cubs are looking for someone better than the guys they’ve trotted out at fifth starter so far this year. Even Ben Brown has a better ERA, if just barely, 6.48.
Also, Alcántara is under contract for 2026 for $17.3 million, with a $2 million buyout (or $21 million team option) for 2027. If he recovers to anywhere near his previous level of performance, that’d be a reasonable deal. If not… well, obviously you wouldn’t want to make the trade. The Cubs can afford the approximately $6 million remaining on his deal for 2025, but the rest of it is only worth it if he’s performing well.
So this would be a risk. Given Alcántara’s performance so far this year, it likely wouldn’t take much to acquire him, perhaps a couple of A-ball lottery ticket pitchers.
That last start, though… maybe there’s hope for him. He was once one of the top pitchers in MLB. Sometimes it takes a while for pitchers to completely come back from TJS.
Would you do it?