The Cubs are again showing interest in Alex Bregman, report Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that the Tigers are back in the mix, along with the incumbent Red Sox.
Those three teams were the final suitors for Bregman last offseason. Detroit reportedly put forth a six-year, $171.5MM offer — albeit with deferred money that would have reduced the net present value — with an opt-out after the second season. The Cubs offered a four-year contract which various reports put at either $115MM or $120MM that included opt-out chances after the second and third season.
Bregman opted for the shortest deal to get back to the market, accepting a three-year guarantee from Boston with outs after the first two years. He made $40MM (half of it deferred) and triggered the opt-out after one season with the Sox. His market won’t be impacted by the qualifying offer this time around. He’ll turn 32 just after Opening Day and could take aim at another six-year deal.
Detroit’s continued interest is expected. They’re still managed by A.J. Hinch, his longtime skipper with the Astros. Zach McKinstry was a surprise All-Star this year, but his numbers tanked in the second half. The Tigers would be better off with him in a utility role, perhaps taking the majority of the shortstop reps from Javier Báez until top prospect Kevin McGonigle arrives. They could use Colt Keith as a left-handed complement to Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres on the right side of the infield, while mixing him in at designated hitter when Kerry Carpenter plays right field.
The fit is a little more difficult on the Cubs, especially if Bregman commands a long-term deal. That’d squeeze out former first-round pick Matt Shaw, who is coming off a reasonably impressive rookie season. Shaw’s overall .226/.295/.394 line is subpar, but he settled in after struggling in his initial looks at big league pitching. Shaw got out to a horrible start but was a league average hitter after being recalled from Triple-A in the middle of May. That includes a .258/.317/.522 showing in the second half, although he slumped a bit in the final month after a huge August.
Shaw impressed defensively, especially later in the season. The Cubs could justify giving him the third base job and hoping for continued improvements at the plate. It wasn’t such an overwhelming debut that it takes them completely out of the running on Bregman, however. Shaw ranked in the bottom 10 percent of qualified hitters in average exit velocity and hard contact rate. He doesn’t have huge bat speed, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be the 20-25 homer threat that Bregman has been over his career.
It still seems likely the Cubs will prioritize adding a mid-rotation or better starter. They reportedly made a run at Dylan Cease and are involved in the bidding for NPB pitcher Tatsuya Imai. A pursuit of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez would be logical. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number around $197MM, which puts them $35MM shy of this past season’s mark. They’re nearly $50MM below the base tax threshold.
Signing Bregman and a #2 starter would probably put them into tax territory, and it’s not clear if ownership would approve that kind of spending. They could address the rotation on the trade market, though, and Shaw would be a quality piece to dangle in talks if they upgrade at third base. They could also use him off the bench in a utility role with the long-term plan of moving him to second base once Nico Hoerner reaches free agency next offseason.