The Reds have seemingly gone down the path of going for budget options this offseason. After reportedly being all in on Kyle Schwarber, they have stood firm in their stance that they will add around $20 million to their current payroll.
A potential move they can make is former Cleveland Guardian Jhonkensy Noel. There are plenty of things to like about him, potential-wise and fit-wise, and he will be an extremely cheap pickup.
Cincinnati Reds: Potential Low Risk, High Reward Free Agent Option
Cincinnati’s Problem
The Reds lack offense. Plain and simple. Their leading hitter in OPS+ in 2025 was Elly De La Cruz at 109, which is above league average but not by much. Obviously, it was still an extremely productive season all around for De La Cruz, but it is simply not enough when a 109 OPS+ is the highest on the team.
A lot of this was due to regression by key players. Matt McLain struggled at the plate all year; Spencer Steer once again failed to replicate his past successes, and the same goes for Tyler Stephenson.
This is a knock on any of them, but to point out the flaw in their roster construction. Naturally, in a season, some players will overperform, and some will underperform. In 2023, the majority of hitters on the team overperformed, leading the front office to believe that it is replicable. However, the 2024 and 2025 seasons showed that banking on players replicating their career-high seasons is not a good strategy.
Despite all this, Cincinnati still made the postseason in 2025. One can argue that the New York Mets’ incompetence was more to blame for the Reds’ sneak-in, but the point still stands. This below-average Reds offense was still able to get them to the postseason, so why not add more offensive firepower to make a proper run at a World Series?
Noel’s Hitting Profile
Noel (or Big Christmas) is most well known for his elite nickname and clutch game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 3 in the 2024 ALCS.
However, his 2024 season was much more than just one swing. In 67 games, the then 23-year-old slashed .218/.288/.486 for a .774 OPS and 115 OPS+. He was well above league-average despite not hitting for average or getting on base much, which is indicative of just how much his power can carry his offensive production.
Like many power-hitting young players, Noel struggled with strikeouts, accumulating a 31.8 K% in 2024. It was easy to look past that, given his power potential was through the roof, but all that optimism was squandered in 2025.
Noel’s 2025 Struggles
It was a miserable 2025 for Noel as he recorded -1.4 bWAR in 69 games. He appeared as a pinch hitter a ton, lowering his plate appearances to 153, well below the 198 in 2024, despite playing in more games in 2025. Whether this contributed to his struggles is unknown, but it could have definitely been a factor due to receiving inconsistent playing time.
In those 69 games, he slashed .162/.183/.297 for a .480 OPS and 31 OPS+. It was a bad season at the plate, no doubt, but perhaps some of the underlying numbers suggest a bounce back is possible. At the end of the day, inconsistent playing time and a natural sophomore slump were also contributing to the struggles.
Noel’s Underlying Numbers
Noel’s .198 BABIP was extremely low, as he had a .250 BABIP in 2024, which was already a low mark. It wasn’t a result of poor contact through, as Noel’s 90.3 Average Exit Velocity was two MPH higher than in 2024, and his Hard-Hit% was 41.2%, about middle of the pack league-wise.
He did have a ridiculously high 49.0 Chase%, 34.7 Whiff%, 34.0 K%, paired with a ridiculously low 2.6 BB%. Obviously, these have to change if he wants to be at least a serviceable big league hitter.
The bigger issue is that he hit fewer line drives and many more ground balls in 2025. Ground balls most often result in outs, and his 46.4 GB% in 2025, compared to 35.0 in 2024, was concerning.
Noel’s Fit With Cincinnati
Noel was DFA’d by the Guardians earlier this month and has to clear waivers before signing a minor league contract. The Reds have shown their desire to continue operating on a small budget, taking flyers on project players rather than committing large sums to proven big leaguers.
An easy way to see if they can get some power-hitting help is signing Noel and seeing if he can recapture his 2024 form or potentially break out even more. It would be a cheap one-year deal with tons of upside if everything goes well. There’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract, and the Reds should look into Noel as a possible addition this winter.
Main Photo Credits: Eric Canha-Imagn Images