Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview, Sunday 6/15, 1:20 CT

The Cubs go for the series win.

Sunday notes…

• THE CLOSE ONES: The Cubs played 13 games decided by one run among their first 65 — one of every five. They have played four in their last six, including each of the last three. The Cubs are 11-6 in one-run games. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• HAPPY FATHER’S DAY: The Cubs have a 60-71-1 record and .458 winning percentage in games played on Father’s Day since 1910, when the holiday first was celebrated in Spokane, Wash. How does that compare to their performance on other special days? Opening Day: .540. Easter: .426. Mother’s Day: .430. Memorial Day: .511. Fourth of July: .562. Labor Day: .445. Closing Day: .517. Friday the 13th: .500. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• RUN DIFFERENTIAL: The Cubs’ run differential of +104 is the best in the National League. If they keep up the current run differential pace, they would wind up at +237, which would be their best since 2016 (+252). The Modern Era Cubs franchise record for best run differential is +323, set in 1906. The team has had only six other seasons of +200 or better run differential in the Modern Era, all but one of them NL pennant-winning years: +225 (1905), +243 (1909), +212 (1910), +223 (1929), +251 (1935) and +202 (1945).
• SPEAKING OF RUNS: The Cubs are averaging 5.38 runs per game (total 382 runs through Saturday). That is a pace for 871 runs, which would be third-best in Modern Era franchise history (982 in 1929 and 998 in 1930 are the only years with more).

Here are today’s particulars.

Cubs lineup:

Pirates lineup:

Colin Rea, RHP vs. Mitch Keller, RHP

Colin Rea had a rough outing last Tuesday in Philadelphia. He’s also had some other bad starts… but also some good ones. The latter includes a good outing May 1 at PNC Park against the Pirates, where he threw six innings and allowed two runs. I’d like another one of those, please.

Mitch Keller’s peripherals are far better than his 1-9 W-L record — a 4.15 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 3.32 FIP and decent K and BB rates.

Largely, the W-L record is because Keller has the second-lowest run support of any qualified starter, 131st of 132, just ahead of his teammate Andrew Heaney. The Pirates haven’t scored more than two runs in any of Keller’s last seven starts. The Pirates are 1-6 in those games.

Let’s make it 1-7 in his last eight, shall we?

Baseball Savant

Baseball Savant

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network. You can find out if Marquee is available via a provider in your area here.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

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The 2025 Game Thread procedure will be identical to last year’s.

You’ll find the game preview posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game, including the First Pitch Thread and the overflow thread, as well as the recap when it’s published. The recap will also live on the front page as a separate post.

You will also be able to find the preview, First Pitch Thread and the overflow thread in the box marked “Chicago Cubs Game Threads” at the bottom of the front page (you can also find them in this section link). The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

The First Pitch thread will post at five minutes before game time, then an overflow thread at 90 minutes after the scheduled game time.

Discuss amongst yourselves.