The Cubs take a swing on a high-upside player with some injury concerns in the first round.
In the first round of the MLB Draft, the Cubs selected Wake Forest outfielder Ethan Conrad. Conrad is a player with tremendous upside, but he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury which many thought would knock him out of the first round. However, the Cubs are clearly happy enough with his medicals and, of course, his talent, that they felt comfortable taking him with the 17th pick.
Conrad is a Saugerties, NY native who spent his first two college years at Marist in the mid-major Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. He transferred to ACC power Wake Forest for his junior year, but a shoulder injury ended his season early after just 21 games and eight conference games.
In those 21 games, however, Conrad impressed. He hit .372/.495/.744 with seven home runs in just 97 plate appearances. Some of those numbers were put up against weaker non-conference competition, but against College World Series runners-up Coastal Carolina, Conrad went 2 for 3 with a double, a home run and a walk.
Conrad was also impressive in the wooden-bat Cape Cod League last summer and in recent years, the Cubs have put tremendous weight on how a player did in that league. Both Matt Shaw and Cam Smith were outstanding in the Cape, and Conrad was too. In 30 games on the Cape in 2024, Conrad hit .385/.433/.486 with five doubles and two home runs in 120 plate appearances.
From a scouting perspective, Conrad is a big (6’3”, 220) left-handed outfielder who has excellent bat-to-ball skills and above average power. He lives and dies between the gaps, although he was starting to pull the ball more before he got injured. Conrad is also a five-tool player with above average speed and enough range to play center field, which he did for the Demon Deacons before he got injured. Most scouts believe his arm and range are probably more suited to right field, where he could be above average defensively.
If there’s a criticism of Conrad, other than his injury history, it’s that he’s too aggressive at the plate and has a tendency to chase bad pitches. His bat skills are strong enough that he can put a lot of those balls in play, but it’s not alway the type of balls-in-play that you want.
Conrad was well on his way to being picked among the first 12 picks in the draft before the injury ended his season early. I have to assume that the Cubs have reviewed his medicals and are happy with them, but there’s always a risk for someone coming off a major shoulder injury.
Those of you wanting the Cubs to gamble on a high-upside guy with a lot of risk attached got your wish. Should Conrad fully return to what he was before he got injured, he could be an All-Star right fielder. But his health and his aggressive approach at the plate could keep him from living up to his potential.
Here a video of Wake Forest highlights two whet your appetite.
So everyone give a big welcome to the Cubs family to Ethan Conrad!
Update: In the second round, the Cubs took outfielder Kane Kepley from North Carolina.
Kepley is called a “throwback” player because his game is all about making contact to all fields, running fast and playing defense. He doesn’t have much power, which is why he’s a second rounder.
At just 5’8”, Kepley got no Division I baseball offers out of high school. He walked on at Liberty and spent two years there before transferring to North Carolina for his junior season. With the Tar Heels, Kepley hit .291/.451/.441 with three home runs and 45 steals over 61 games and 309 plate appearances. What likely attracted the Cubs is that he walked 44 times in those 61 games and struck out just 22 times. He also had seven triples, which gives you a sense of his speed. He makes a lot of contact and is very difficult to strike out. That and his speed should give him above-average batting averages, and his ability to take a walk could make him an ideal old-fashioned leadoff hitter.
On defense, Kepley is a pure centerfielder and scouts put a “70” grade on his defense on the 20-to-80 scale. His arm is fringy, but good enough for center field.
Kepley is one of those all-hustle “hair-on-fire” types, so if he makes the majors he could be a fan favorite.
Kepley’s big weakness is his lack of power. It’s unlikely that he’ll ever hit a dozen home runs in a season and most years will be fewer than that.
So let’s all welcome Kane Kepley to the Cubs family as well!’
Here are some Kepley highlights.
Second update: In the third round of the MLB Draft, the Cubs select Dominick Reid, a right-handed pitcher from Abilene Christian.
Reid is a 6’3” right-hander who barely pitched his first two seasons in college at Oklahoma. He transferred to Abilene Christian where he set the school’s record for strikeouts in a season at the Division I level at 112 in 71 innings. His big pitch is a 82-84 mph changeup that got more whiffs than any other change in Division I. His fastball is 91-94 and can touch 96-97, but he needs to command it better. His slurvy breaking pitch needs work. He is a big guy and could possibly add some weight and velocity.
In 15 starts at Abilene Christian this past year, Reid went 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA. He walked just 27 in the 112 innings, so control isn’t a major problem.
Let’s welcome Dominick Reid to the Cubs family!