Suzuki had some wild H&G luck in the first half.
Seiya Suzuki had a wild ride in the first half of the season. Despite being overlooked for the All-Star game, he was unquestionably one of the better players in baseball in the first half. Runs batted in aren’t necessarily a terrific stat as it can be heavily tied to the results and performance of other players. But Seiya led all of baseball in runs batted in for a chunk of the first half and at 77, he remains tied for fifth in baseball and just one off of the National League lead.
To go with those 77 runs batted in he has 25 homers (6th MLB), and an .866 OPS (19th in MLB). The numbers have been terrific. I think my favorite microcosm of Seiya’s season to date was when one of the prominent baseball online sites listed the biggest All-Star snubs and didn’t list Seiya. I really have very little quibble with him not making the team. On any given year, there are at least a dozen players who are worthy and don’t make it in each league. You could probably double the size of the rosters and not get to embarrassing choices at most positions.
Obviously, the Cubs were a good team, but Carson Kelly, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Seiya, Daniel Palencia, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar and Chris Flexen are all guys who I think you could put a credible argument forward for them. Most teams had at least a few more players that wouldn’t be crazy additions to the team.
Anyway, this isn’t about that. This piece is about the star crossed season of Seiya Suzuki. What happened to him in Heroes and Goats? How is it possible that one of the best players on the team is in last place. So I’m going to go through the Cubs season and look at some of the misfortune.
- 3/18 – Suzuki 0-4 – (-.130) – Goat (-2) – Cubs lose 4-1
- 3/28 – Suzuki 1-4 – (-.004) – Sidekick (-1) – Cubs lose 8-1 (some H&G good luck)
- 3/29 – Suzuki 0-4 – (-.080) – Kid(tie) (-1.5) – Cubs win 4-3
- 3/30 – Suzuki 2-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI (.173). – Hero (0.5) Cubs lose 10-6
- 3/31 – Suzuki 2-5, RBI, R (-.023) – Kid (-0.5) Cubs win 18-3
- 4/1 – Suzuki 2-5, HR, 3 RBI, R (.147) – Hero (1.5) Cubs win 7-4
- 4/2 – Suzuki 3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI 2 R (.339). – Superhero (4.5) Cubs win 10-2
- 4/5 – Suzuki 0-3, 2 BB (-.083) – Billy Goat (1.5) Cubs win 7-1
- 4/7 – Suzuki 2-3, RBI, R (-.018) – Kid (0.5) Cubs 7-0
- 4/8 – Suzuki 3-4, BB, 2 RBI, R (.179) – Hero (2.5) Cubs 10-6
- 4/9 – Suzuki 2-4, RBI, R (.071) – Superhero (5.5) Cubs lose 6-2
- 4/11 – Suzuki 1-3 (-.070) – Goat (3.5) Cubs lose 3-0
- 4/12 – Suzuki 0-2 (-.081) – Billy Goat (0.5) Cubs win 16-0
- 4/16 – Suzuki 1-4 (-.151) – Goat (-1.5) Cubs lose 4-2
- 4/19 – Suzuki 1-4, HR, 2 RBI (.079) – Sidekick (-0.5) Cubs win 6-2
- 4/25 – Suzuki 2-5 (-.011) – Kid (-1.5) Cubs win 4-0
- 4/26 – Suzuki 2-4, 3 RBI (.002) – Sidekick (-0.5) Cubs lose 10-4
- 4/29 – Suzuki 3-4, HR, 2 RBI, 3 R (.049) – 4th (-0.5) Cubs win 9-0 (some bad luck)
- 4/30 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.113) – 4th worst (-0.5) Cubs lose 4-3 (some good luck)
Through March and April, luck broke about even. The 4/26 game was a scorer’s discretion on a multi-way tie in a lopsided loss. He was -0.5 and that doesn’t feel unfair. A .287/.355/.574 line in 121 PA. Until the current month, which isn’t done yet obviously, that was his most productive month.
- 5/1 – Suzuki 2-4, 2 HR, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R (.392) – Superhero (2.5) Cubs win 8-3
- 5/2 – Suzuki 1-5, RBI, R (-.021) – Billy Goat (-0.5) Cubs win 10-0
- 5/3 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.050) – Billy Goat (-3.5) Cubs Win 6-1
- 5/4 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.118) – Goat (-5.5) Cubs lose 4-0
- 5/6 – Suzuki 0-5 (-.293) – Goat (-7.5) Cubs lose 14-5
- 5/7 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.132) – Goat (-9.5) Cubs lose 3-1
- 5/10 – Suzuki 2-5, RBI, R (.058). Cubs win 6-5
- 5/12 – Suzuki 1-3, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R (.073) – 4th (-9.5) Cubs win 5-2
- 5/13 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.133) – Kid (-10.5) Cubs W 5-4
- 5/14 – Suzuki 1-4, HR, RBI, R (.001) – 4th (-10.5) Cubs lose 3-1
- 5/17 – Suzuki 1-5 (-.086) – Billy Goat (-13.5) Cubs win 7-3
- 5/20 – Suzuki 3-4, HR, BB, 4 RBI, 3 R (.068) – 4th (-13.5) Cubs win 14-1
- 5/23 – Suzuki 3-5, HR, 3 RBI 3 R (.220) – Hero (-11.5) Cubs win 13-6
- 5/25 – Suzuki 3-4, HR, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R (.365) – Superhero (-8.5) Cubs win 11-8
- 5/27 – Suzuki 1-5, RBI (-.096) – Kid (-9.5) Cubs win 4-3
- 5/28 – Suzuki 1-3, BB, RBI (.090) – 5th (-9.5) Cubs win 2-1
- 5/31 – Suzuki 1-3, BB, RBI (185). – Hero (-7.5) Cubs win 2-0
May was a -7 month. Suzuki posted a .259/.314/.565. So the power persisted but the average and on base dipped during the month. We see a pair of games with the fourth best score and a fifth best score. One of those fourth best scores was a four RBI game.
- 6/3 – Suzuki 0-4 RBI (-.055) – Kid (-8.5) Cubs win 8-3
- 6/4 – Suzuki 1-3, BB (.034). Hero (-6.5) Cubs lose 2-0
- 6/5 – Suzuki 2-4, BB (-.040) – Kid (-8.5) Cubs win 7-1 (bad luck)
- 6/6 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.195) – Billy Goat (-11.5) Cubs lose 3-1
- 6/7 – Suzuki 2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R (.090) – Sidekick (-10.5) Cubs win 6-1 (bad luck)
- 6/8 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.089) – Goat (-12.5) Cubs lose 4-0
- 6/14 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.106) – Billy Goat (-15.5) Cubs win 2-1
- 6/15 – Suzuki 0-4, RBI (-.088). Kid (-16.5) Cubs win 3-2
- 6/17 – Suzuki 1-4, HR 3 RBI, R (.184). Hero (-14.5) Cubs win 5-3
- 6/19 – Suzuki 0-5 (-.288). Goat (-16.5) Cubs lose 8-7
- 6/20 – Suzuki 1-3, BB, R (.134). Hero (-14.5) Cubs lose 9-4
- 6/21 – Suzuki 0-5 (-.025). Goat (-16.5) Cubs win 10-7
- 6/22 – Suzuki 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R (.256). Superhero (-13.5) Cubs lose 14-6
- 6/24 – Suzuki 3-5, HR, 3 RBI, R (.221). Sidekick (-12.5) Cubs lose 8-7
- 6/25 – Suzuki 0-4, BB (-.020). Goat/Kid split (-14) Cubs win 8-0
- 6/26 – Suzuki 0-3, BB (-.063). Goat (-16) Cubs win 3-0
- 6/28 – Suzuki 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R (-.024), Goat (-18) Cubs win 12-3 (bad luck)
- 6/29 – Suzuki 0-4 (-.105). Kid (-19). Cubs lose 2-0
Seiya posted a .226/.265/.481 line in June. So we see a fairly sizeable slump and he was -11.5. There were a couple of decent games that ended up on the goat side. Definitely a tough crowd at times.
- 7/1 – Suzuki 1-4, HR, RBI, R (.081). 4th (-19) Cubs win 5-2
- 7/2 – Suzuki 2-3, 2 BB, 3 RBI, R (.412). Superhero (-16) Cubs win 5-4
- 7/3 – Suzuki 1-4 (-.125). Kid (-17) Cubs win 1-0
- 7/4 – Suzuki 1-4, HR, RBI, R (.098). 4th Win 11-3
- 7/6 – Suzuki 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, R (-.062). Billy Goat (-20) Win 11-0 (bad luck)
- 7/8 – Suzuki 0-3, BB (-.186). Billy Goat (-23) Cubs lose 8-1
- 7/10 – Suzuki 3-5, 2 R (-.015). Kid (-25) Cubs win 8-1 (bad luck)
- 7/11 – Suzuki 0-3 (-.068). Kid (-27) Cubs lose 11-0
- 7/12 – Suzuki 1-4, R (.079). Sidekick (-26). Cubs win 5-2
So there’s the end of the first half journey. Overwhelmingly, it doesn’t feel unfair. There are certainly six games that I noted where he had some bad luck in the placing and two where he had good luck. Good games on the goat side or bad games on the hero side. An awful lot of this ends up being noise. More than anything, it feels like some of his best offensive games ended up second, third or fourth as opposed to a spot or two higher. But like just in July a 3-5 and a 2-5 with a homer game turning up as Billy Goat and Kid appearances is another snapshot of some bad luck.
I kind of thought something might just jump out, but it feels like dozens of paper cuts. Seiya had 273 runners on base across all plate appearances and he drove in 77 runs. The average major leaguer with 407 plate appearances drove in 45 runs. So Seiya did quite good. 11 solo shots. So we’ll call it 66 times driving in someone else. That way exceeds the average across all major leaguers. The average major leaguer with 407 plate appearances saw 244 runners on base. So he had a lot of traffic.
And that’s the crux of it. Seiya bats behind Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker most days and spends a lot of time with runners on base. He definitely had some spots where he had hits late after the game had gotten lopsided early. And he definitely had some games knocked down a notch because he didn’t deliver in one RBI situation even if he did cash in elsewhere.
If I had to bet, I’d bet on him driving in proportionally fewer runs in the second half but performing better in H&G. Basically betting on both numbers having some reversion. I’ll be keeping an eye on this. Seiya might be the single most important hitter in the Cub lineup. He is the most productive right-handed hitter by a decent margin. He keeps the lineup honest and he’s very important often between Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. If that lineup we saw at the end of the half sticks, with Michael Busch leading off, Seiya becomes even more important, sandwiched with a ton of lefties early in the lineup.
I think a top starting pitcher is the number one need of the Cubs. I know people want proven relievers. But I will continue to suggest a right-handed hitter who plays third base is a strong second priority.