The Cubs start the second half with a 4-1 win.
A quick heads up to start, I will be on vacation beginning today through next Saturday. All things equal, I should be writing next Saturday’s recap as my next one. That’s the game on July 26. Al is graciously filling in for me while I’m gone with a brief form of this. Expect standings to return somewhere around July 29. If I can catch them up faster, I will. But I’ll be more concerned with just getting back into the flow of things. And, of course next week figures to be one overflowing with baseball news.
With that out of the way, let’s talk about the fun part. The Cubs started the second half exactly where they ended the first. That is, they won 4-1. Against an American League East team, no less. This one was in the Friendly Confines, even if they might not have been particularly friendly to Dansby Swanson. The place was rocking and a good team effort ended with a win.
It was the typical 2025 story. That is, not necessarily a work of art, unless you are particularly fond of Picasso’s work. They only produced six hits, allowed seven. Each team drew four walks. But the difference was one Seiya Suzuki home run that came very early in the day. Six Cub pitchers held the line and made that early lead hold up. Work of art or no, they’ve won 58 games. The Brewers beat the Dodgers late Friday, so the Cubs now have the best record in the NL (by half a game), and still lead the NL Central, but by just one game.
So here’s the irony. We spent time talking about Seiya Suzuki the other day. And there he was carrying the offense. 26 homers. 80 runs driven in. Standing among the most productive hitters in baseball this year, Still so overlooked that at least one publication failed to list him as a snub for the All-Star game. Heroes and Goats tracked him in dead last through the break. But, at least to date, he just keeps on like the Energizer bunny. Plugging ahead without a lot of fanfare.
The same goes for starter Colin Rea. He’s one of those classic disregarded players. The kind of player who will often be described by the things he isn’t. I don’t care to talk about what he isn’t. I’ll tell you what he’s likely to be. That’s a pitcher who was in the rotation more than half the year for the National League Central champions for the third year in a row. He made 22 starts for the 2023 Brewers, 27 for the 2024 Brewers and he’s already made 16 starts for the 2025 Cubs. 16 starts is basically half the season for a starting pitcher and I’ll take the over on .5 starts for the remainder of the year. It seems fairly likely that floor is actually at two starts and even if he is bounced from the rotation come Aug. 1, I’d rate him with a non-zero start to make one or more starts after that.
I bet an awful lot of people would have had Colin throughout his journey at fewer than 34 major league appearances. I know people have turned on wins as a stat. Well, Colin just won his 34th career game. It took him 114 games and 92 appearances to get to that spot. Score one for a guy who just keeps working and making the most of the opportunities that are available to him.
Key Storylines:
- Starting Pitching: Colin Rea threw five innings, allowed four hits, four walks and one run. He struck out five. Not dazzling. But he did a pretty good job against a team with 10 straight wins coming in.
- Relief Pitching: Same story. This Red Sox team will be pesky through the weekend. But the bullpen held them to three hits, no walks and no runs over four innings.
- Homer Over Reliance: Three of the four runs scored on one homer. Two doubles among their six hits. They drew four walks and stole a base. Four runs is a great output with an off day at the park. Thank you, Seiya.
- Third Base Production: Matt Shaw went 1-3 with a stolen base.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted seventh. 0-3 with a walk. He drilled two balls that would have been long gone in that Mariners series a few weeks ago. Unusual that on a July afternoon they both died at the track.
- Opposing starter: Righty. 45-24 versus righties. My word. One lefty faced. He retired four of four batters, getting Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Those would have been massive outs for the Sox had they won this.
Pitch Counts:
- Red Sox: 140, 35 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 131, 36 BF
The Cubs faced nine over the minimum and escaped with one run allowed. The Cubs used five relievers, but of course none of them had worked in at least four days. Also, only one of them threw more than nine pitches. Ryan Pressly at 16 pitches should still be available for at least one more game in this series.
The Red Sox had to work a bit harder, throwing nine more pitches in one less inning. The Cubs chased Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito in the sixth with 98 pitches thrown. Three Red Sox relievers followed. None threw as many as 20 pitches. No reason any of them won’t be readily available at least one more time this weekend.
Three Stars
- Seiya Suzuki actually had two of the seven hits and was the only Cub with multiple hits. I loved that he ambushed the first pitch after a pair of walks. Lucas Giolito might have thought he could drop one in there as Seiya often doesn’t offer at the first pitch. It was only the 25th time he has put the first pitch in play this year and the third homer. Fun stat, when Seiya is ahead in the count, he has a 1.393 OPS.
- Rea. Set the tone for a decent day out of the pitchers.
- Caleb Thielbar. Three batters, nine pitches, eight strikes, two strikeouts. Nasty.
Game 97, July 18: Cubs 4, Red Sox 1 (58-39)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.169). 5 IP, 22 BF, 4 H, 4 BB, 1 ER, 5 K (W 8-3)
- Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.164). 2-4, HR, 3 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar (.063). IP, 3 BF, 2 K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Carson Kelly (-.046). 0-3, BB
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.022). 0-3, BB
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.016). 1-4 , 2B
WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s first-inning, three-run homer (.177)
*Red Sox Play of the Game: Roman Anthony’s third inning RBI double with runners on first and third (.096). Sneaky nice play by PCA to get to the ball quick and get it back in, preventing a second run.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Previous Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 295 of 302 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +32
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Shōta Imanaga +16
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Matt Shaw -12.33
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -17
- Seiya Suzuki -24
- Dansby Swanson -25.33
Up Next: The Cubs will try to win the series on Saturday. Shōta Imanaga (6-3, 2.65, 68 IP) starts for the Cubs. He’s made three starts since returning from the injured list (2-1, 2.95, 18⅓ IP). Sneaky, but to date he has a better ERA than his very fine rookie season. He faced the BoSox last year in Boston and allowed one run on five hits and one walk, while striking out seven over 6⅓ innings.
Brayan Bello (6-3, 3.14, 91⅔ IP) starts for the Red Sox for the 16th time this year (17 appearances overall). The Domincan native is 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA over his last seven appearances (six starts). He didn’t face the Cubs last year, despite making a career high 30 starts, A little better at home (3.20) than away (2.95). But dead even with a 3.14 ERA day and night. Those are a lot of words for a guy who is strikingly consistent and very good.
The Cubs tend to win when Imanaga starts. Here’s hoping that continues,