The Cubs crush the Cardinals in the series finale.
We begin where I ended yesterday.
Let’s take the momentum back, win the series and leave the Cardinals battered on their way out.
Mission accomplished. With all due respect, the Cubs left no question who the better team was this week. Baseball being baseball, that doesn’t mean it will be that way for the entire remaining season. But there’s no question it is true right now. The Cubs savaged the Cardinals over the weekend. Without going back through the box scores, I suspect it isn’t quite true that the Cubs lost only one inning in the series. But, without that one inning, the Cubs sweep this series and embarrass the Cardinals in the process.
This isn’t one of those times in Cubs history when I need to dig out some way back machine. I suspect 2023 is fresh in all of your minds. Any of at least a dozen “one bad inning” games could have flipped that whole season. That inning counts. That game counts. The Cardinals won it and the ripple from that could cost the Cubs something later on. So I don’t dismiss the one bad inning.
I do feel a lot better on it because of all of the layers of context. Brad Keller, who was most damaged by the one bad inning, has been phenomenal this year. The Cubs have been terrific. That one bad inning, that one loss. They are the aberration and not the norm.
I didn’t point it out after the sweep against Cleveland, but this year’s Cubs had matched the record at the same point for the 2016 Cubs. After winning Friday, they matched them again. With the loss Saturday, even with this win they are one game behind that pace. It’s a completely unfair comparison. That team is sainted in Cubs history. But this team is doing the kind of things that team did. At least in terms of winning games. This one is better at scoring. That one was better at prevention. But I’ll say if one more time in a series of so many. This team is special.
I’m only going to quickly gloss over the storylines we’ve been following, because this is the kind of game where the complaint department should be slammed shut for the day.
Key Storylines:
- Starting Pitching: After being tabbed as an All-Star, Matthew Boyd threw five scoreless and struck out nine. Terrific and completely appropriate to get him out of there early.
- Relief Pitching: Jordan Wicks did most of the work. 12 batters, three hits, two strikeouts. Daniel Palencia got a little work in.
- Homer Over Reliance: The game the Cubs have need for so long. Just one homer and it was a solo shot. 13 hits, three of them doubles, one triple and that homer. Five walks, a hit batter. Two steals. All of the kinds of things that lead to scoring. And a lot of it.
- Third Base Production: A walk and two runs scored.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted sixth. Had a hit and a walk, scored twice. Five runners left on base, though only two with two outs. Everything he does (or doesn’t do) is multiplied by batting behind a string of All-Star level players. An interesting note from Baseball Reference (through Saturday’s game): 42 RBI in 371 plate appearances. Average number of RBI for 371 PA? 41. He’s batted with 225 men on base.
- Opposing Starter: Righty. And they crushed him. John King was the only lefty to throw. He faced seven batters, allowed four hits, a walk and four runs (two earned). Michael Busch stayed hot against lefties, with a single off of King.
Pitch Counts:
- Cardinals: 188, 44 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 133, 33 BF
The Cubs faced only six batters over the minimum. Six hits, one walk and a double play. The Cardinals made Boyd work fairly hard, seeing him for the second time in a little over a week. But he only allowed three hits, a walk and no runs. And he struck out nine in just five innings. Good results even when not excellent is the sign of a star. Boyd is unquestionably having a star season. Hat tip to his All-Star nod.
A full disaster game for the Cardinals. More than 23 pitches per inning. Their starter didn’t survive the second and their first option out of the pen didn’t survive the third. Matt Svanson was thrown into this one largely to stop the bleeding. And still two more relievers followed him. Both teams are off Monday, so should be fairly well stocked for their respective games Tuesday. I’m curious to see what the long term plan is relative to Jordan Wicks and Chris Flexen as it relates to the last spot in the rotation (until trades start).
Three Stars:
- Nico Hoerner gets my top spot. Single, double, triple, three runs scored and a run driven in. He’s had a blistering few weeks.
- Michael Busch two more hits, a walk and hit by a pitch. One of the hits was a double. He scored a run. He obliterated the Cardinals this weekend.
- Matthew Boyd over a plethora of other hitters and Wicks.
Game 90, July 6: Cubs 11, Cardinals 0 (54-36)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Kyle Tucker (.164). 1-2, BB, SF, 3 RBI, R, SB
- Hero: Matthew Boyd (.149). 5 IP, 19 BF, 3 H, BB, 0 ER, 9 K (W 9-3)
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.118). 3-4, 3B, 2B, RBI, 3 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.062). 2-5, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R
*First at bat fly out with runner on second and one out (-.034), Second at bat with first and third one out, reached on fielder’s choice, out at home (-.038). Third at bat, two-out, RBI-double (.009). Two outs, bases empty, solo homer (.000). This is the kind of stuff that keeps happening to him.
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.011). 1-4, BB, 2 R
- Kid: Reese McGuire (-.006). 2-5, 2 RBI, R
WPA Play of the Game: Kyle Tucker’s single with the bases loaded and one out in the second plated two. (.120)
*Cardinals Play of the Game: Thomas Saggese doubled with one out and the bases empty in the second inning, the Cards down one at the time. (.044)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Michael Busch received 174 of 179 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +17
- PCA 14.5
- Shōta Imanaga +13
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Matt Shaw -10.33
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -17
- Seiya Suzuki -22
- Dansby Swanson -27.33
Up Next: An off day Monday before heading to Minnesota on Tuesday. The Twins are 43-47 but just took two out of three from a fairly good Rays team. Two night games a day game. Prepare yourself for a handful of Stranger Things puns and jokes on the Wednesday night game as they are having a theme night. They had a blistering May at 18-8 and got as close as three games to first. But a 9-18 June probably has them starting to consider what pieces are worth trading in a few weeks.
Shōta Imanaga (5-2, 2.78, 55 IP) gets the opener. He’s 2-0 since returning, allowing three earned over 10⅓ innings. Not a lot of length out of him yet. Hopefully he can get six if they need him. Imanaga is 3-1 with 0.98 on the road this year in five starts. He’s also better at night (2.53) than during the day (3.13), though obviously none of his samples are massive. He beat the Twins last August, allowing two runs over seen on just two hits and a walk.
Simeon Woods Richardson (4-4, 4.41, 63⅓ IP) is making his 13th start and 14th appearance of the year. The righty was a second round pick for the Mets back in 2018 (48th overall). 2-2 with a 4.72 over his last seven, so a little worse. He made 28 starts a year ago for the Twins, so he’s able to handle some volume. Better at home (3.82) than away (4.96). Worse at night (5.72) than during the day (3.34). He didn’t face the Cubs when these teams met last August.
I remember when facing a pitcher for the first time would have been scary. But not so much anymore. Also, with Sunday’s win, 42-22 versus right-handed starters. It’s getting obscene. That’s a 106-win pace.