No offense in Houston, and the Cubs lose 2-0.
Two things can be true at once. Framber Valdez is a very good pitcher, having a very good season who executed very well on Sunday. I think it would be unfair not to start there. That’s really the story of this game. That said, at some point, an offense should break through against a left handed starter. Right here in this series, two lefties were scheduled and the Cubs managed one run on 10 hits and two walks in 12 innings against lefty starters in the series. For that matter, the Cubs saw 4⅓ innings of left handed relievers and scored one run on two hits.
The two runs against lefty pitching were both solo homers, so the Cubs never sustained an inning against Astros left-handed pitching over the weekend. That, despite the fact that the lefties threw almost two full game’s worth of innings. I sounded this alarm early and it’s just more and more true over time. Left-handed pitching more or less neutralizes two of the Cubs best bats. The massive boost in Seiya Suzuki’s production against lefties just isn’t enough to offset the drop off for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch often being removed from the lineup.
Fortunately, that kind of weakness is not often heavily exploited in the regular season where it can be hard to significantly manipulate the rotation. That said, we’ve already seen on this road trip both the Cardinals and Astros turning to left-handed relievers in leverage situations. Stay tuned to that. This feels like it will be one of the longest running stories of this season.
Let’s look at the storylines we’ve been watching.
- Starting Pitching: Jameson Taillon was pushed to the limit but he was pretty good. He gave it everything he had and tried to get through five, but in the end made a mistake to Jose Altuve and that was the game.
- Relief Pitching: Three Cubs relievers combined to throw 3⅓ innings, allowing two hits and nothing else. The bullpen had a terrific road trip. One run allowed in the series in a game that was well out of hand already. This trip was a tough one but the bullpen bounced back terrific after being part of that nightmarish Mariners series last weekend.
- Homer Over-Reliance: No homers Sunday. No runs Sunday. Five hits, two of them doubles. Two walks. One stolen base. Just not enough quantity of anything to put together any scoring.
- Third Base Production: One hit in three at bats total. A stolen base. Not terrible, but Vidal Brujan had a non competitive plate appearance pinch hitting for start Jon Berti.
- Dansby Swanson: His usual four spot against lefties. Two walks in four plate appearances. No one would be surprised that the two walks were bases empty and one of the two outs as with a runner on second. Swanson didn’t have a bad series in Houston. He’s been streaky and maybe he’s heating up.
- Struggles against left-handed pitching: Already addressed. The struggles continued.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs 150, 33 BF (8 IP)
- Astros 126, 34 BF
The Cubs allowed seven hits, walked one, struck out six. This was a fine performance. Pitching didn’t lose this game. The Astros were incredibly effective. Five hits and two walks allowed over nine innings, struck out 11. The three Astros pitchers who threw sport ERAs of 2.72, 1.63 and 1.67. It’s not like three bums were dropped off at Dalkin Park and shut out the Cubs. But shut down they did.
The Cubs had a rested pen. Three relievers threw. None threw over 18 pitches. If there was a game tomorrow, the Cubs would have eight pitchers available, assuming good health. They should be able to really put that issue largely in the rear view mirror over the next 45 days, with a much more forgiving cadence of games for a while.
Three Stars:
- Not much to work with here. I’ll put Kyle Tucker up top with a double.
- Carson Kelly second with another double.
- Jon Berti with a single and a stolen base in two plate appearances.
Game 84, June 29: Astros 2, Cubs 0 (49-35)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Ryan Brasier (.034). 1⅓ IP, 5 BF, H, 2 K
- Hero: Ryan Pressly (.022). IP, 3 BF
- Sidekick: Brad Keller (.013). IP, 4 BF, H
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.150). 0-4
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.110). 0-4
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.104). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Jose Altuve’s two-run homer with two outs in the fifth. (.266)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s double leading off the seventh inning. (.086)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Kyle Tucker received 138 of 172 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +30
- Shōta Imanaga +14
- PCA +12.5
- Matthew Boyd +12
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Jon Berti -9
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -17
- Seiya Suzuki -19
- Dansby Swanson -22.33
Up Next: An off day Monday, the first scheduled one in two weeks and then second in four. It gets better from here. Hopefully that allows the Cubs to turn it back on. They were 12-13 over the 26 games scheduled in 27 days (and one game was rained out). They were 37-22 before this stretch. There are probably a variety of factors. But basically playing every day did not help.
Cleveland is 40-42 and put up very little fight in getting swept at home by the Cardinals. Matthew Boyd (7-3, 2.65, 91⅔ IP) gets the opener against his most recent team. Boys is 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA over his last seven (40⅓ IP). So no signs of wearing down, even as he reaches the largest number of starts he’s had since 2019. His splits are fairly neutral day versus night, home versus away. He’s simply been good.
25-year-old Gavin Williams (5-3, 3.68, 80⅔ IP) gets the start for Cleveland. He’s 2-1 with a 3.03 in 38⅔ innings over his last seven, so the same story here. Two guys throwing well. This next start will be the most Williams has ever made at the major league level. So both guys in a little bit of an uncharted territory. The split I see that provides a ray of optimism is night (5.35) versus day (2.27). He has eight starts in each spot. So it doesn’t feel like nothing. Gavin didn’t pitch against the Cubs in either of the last two years when he was in the majors. Oh, and this is another first round talent. The 23rd overall pick for Cleveland in 2021.