A rough start dooms the game and the Cubs lose 7-4.
After two days of respite, a number of problems resurfaced. Primary among them was a rough start. The struggles against left-handed pitching were on display as well. The Cubs fought to the end but were just overmatched in this one. The Cubs have a tough road to get even one win out of this weekend, much less two. Hopefully, at least one starting pitcher steps up and helps give them a real shot.
With a loss heading into the weekend, we’re going to fast forward to our recent look at high level issues that have affected this team during their recent slump.
- Starting Pitching: Poor. Worst start of Cade Horton’s young career. He narrowly escaped damage in each of the first two innings, then fell flat. He allowed four in the third and three in the fourth. Cam Smith is a productive player, I’d still make the Tucker trade every single time.
- Relief Pitching: Excellent. Chris Flexen gets double bonus. He threw four innings and allowed no runs. He both gave the team a chance to get back in the game but also kept the bullpen from being shorthanded in the other two games heading into an off day.
- Homer Over Reliance: One solo home and four runs. No issues there. Two walks, no steals, three doubles and a triple. They did things that contribute to runs. Four isn’t a bad production. The problem really was just enough hits overall. But bad pitching cost the team this game.
- Third Base Production: One of his best days as a major leaguer. Two hits, both doubles. Three runs driven in. Also, special kudos for the double in the ninth. Josh Hader facing one batter is somewhat trivial. But he had to do a full warmup and get up to speed. Could take a bullet away from the Astros somewhere over the weekend.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted fourth. Had the early triple. Inexcusable that the Cubs didn’t get that run home after leading off an inning. With Nico’s second homer this week, I’m favor of flipping the two, but this was a fine day for Dansby. On the down side, he grounded out with a runner on first, flew out with a runner on first. The odd statistic continues where he does better leading off an inning.
- Problems against lefty starters: Fail. Five hits, no walks, one run over six innings. The one run was a solo homer. They did have a triple and double against him as well. So kudos at least that when they did get hits, they were solid hits.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 130, 39 BF (8 IP)
- Astros: 142, 37 BF
Not all that dissimilar. The Cubs allowed two more hits, three more walks, three more runs. They struck out six less hitters. The Cubs had five extra base hits to two for the Astros. The Cubs benefitted from an outfield assist. The outcome was maybe three parts sequencing and two parts productivity.
The Astros used four relievers, one of them, Bennett Sousa, faced seven batters, recorded five outs and threw 31 pitches. He’s not thrown back-to-back days this season. So we won’t see him before Sunday. None of these four pitchers threw Thursday against the Phillies. I’d expect the Astros to have seven relievers available.
The Cubs used one reliever. Chris Flexen threw 50 pitches. He won’t be seen before Sunday and probably not before Tuesday. I can’t say enough about Flexen. He’s up to 28 innings on the year with a 0.64 ERA. Do I get it that they have largely been low leverage? Yeah. But they haven’t all been. Four wins isn’t a total fluke. You can only win if the game was close enough to win, you keep it close enough and then your offense helps you out.
Three Stars:
- What I try to do in this space is recognize the three performances that would provide the most benefit under ordinary circumstances. Otherwise, I’d be doing a lot of mirroring what H&G already tells us. With that in mind, Matt Shaw gets the top spot. A two-extra base hit, three-RBI game will help your team win a lot of games.
- Chris Flexen. This one is a little sideways. But four scoreless innings not only stopped the bleeding on this one, but also gave them a slightly better chance in the other two.
- Nico Hoerner had a homer and drew a walk. He scored both times. He’s up to a 105 wRC+ along with being consistently at the top of the rankings of second basemen defensively. For humor value because I’ve covered it a couple of times: Nico is now the player with the most plate appearances and two homers.
Game 82, June 27: Astros 7, Cubs 4 (48-34)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.064). 1-4, 3B
- Hero: Chris Flexen (.014). 4 IP, 15 BF, 2H, BB, 0 ER, K
- Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.010). 2-4, 2 2B, 3 RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Cade Horton (-.298). 4 IP, 24 BF, 8 H, 4 BB, 7 ER, 2 K, HBP (L 3-2)
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.074). 0-5
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.070). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Yainer Diaz hit a three-run homer with two outs in the third to put the Astros up four. (.222)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s lead-off triple in the second inning. The failure to get that run in is the kind of thing that makes it hard to beat good teams, particularly on the road. (.098)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 258 of 271 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +28
- PCA +14.5
- Shōta Imanaga +14
- Matthew Boyd +12
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Jon Berti -9
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Seiya Suzuki -16
- Ben Brown -17
- Dansby Swanson -21.33
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set. Colin Rea (4-3, 4.42, 73⅓ IP). Rea was invaluable early this season, but over his last seven appearances, he is 1-3 with a 6.32 over 37 innings. He’s got to bounce back. He’s been significantly better at night (3.42), though only over 26⅓ innings, so sample size issue. But the silver lining I can offer you. He pitched once in Houston last year and allowed five runs on eight hits in 4⅓.
Lance McCullers Jr. (1-2, 4.91, 29⅓ IP) will start Saturday for Houston. This is another guy from my neck of the woods, Tampa. He was a comp pick (41st overall) for the Astros in 2012. So a first round sandwich pick. His season didn’t start until May 4, then he missed a couple of turns through after his seventh start of the season with a foot sprain. Before this year, he was last in the majors in 2022. He’s only 31 though. 39 strikeouts on the season. So he is an effective pitcher. Very small sample but he is 0-2 with a 9.19 ERA in 15⅔ innings at home.
This is a potentially high-scoring affair where the bullpens could decide things.