It was not pretty, but the Cubs took care of business with a 3-2 win.
Had these last 13 games occurred in a different order, say reversed, I’m not sure that the Cubs wouldn’t have lost seven or even more. The Cubs didn’t play great during this stretch. To be clear, they didn’t play badly either. I’ve got the score over 13 games at 47-36 combined. Using a pythagorean expectation calculator, that’s an expected eight wins. So it feels like they were fortunate to come out with seven wins. Also, by at least one measure, they could have won eight games over the stretch.
That’s probably right on both ends. It feels fortunate, because particularly as the series of games ran on, they weren’t dominating. But it also feels a little unfortunate. Two one-run losses and two by two runs. So four times, it felt like a break or two would have flipped the result. Not that far off from my favorite theme, glass half full, glass half empty.
Overall, I think the Cubs have a pitcher that is flowing over. The team is good. They’ve played well. They are positioned excellently. This team should win the division going away. They very well could earn one of the top two seeds in the NL without adding a single piece to the team. There’s every reason to believe that Shōta Imanaga, Miguel Amaya and others will return to this team. The team can get better and fill holes without making any trades.
Also, the team has a ton of prospect capital. They also still have some fiscal flexibility. I loved what the team did with their surplus money after trading Cody Bellinger — they banked it. $20ish million in the offseason, buys a player, maybe two. At midseason? It could buy one huge piece, a couple of decent pieces or several role players. I don’t have to tell Cub fans about adding a role player at the deadline. Back in 2003, Kenny Lofton was no longer the star he once was. He was four years removed from his last All-Star game. He had one of the worst years of his career to that point in 2002. He got hot and was a big part of a Cub team that almost reached the World Series.
A role player can be a huge add if you target the right kinds of players. The kind of guy who might still have some star ability in the tank if they can get locked in with the right team around them. Gary Gaetti was one of those players. There have been a few and that kind of guy might make a huge difference on a team like this. An offensive player on an offensive powerhouse. A reliever on one of the top bullpens. No pressure to be a star, just room to pick good situations and find a groove.
We’ve got a little over a month to go, but remember this as we head into trade season. Officially, I guess trade season began in earnest on Sunday with Rafael Devers being traded to the Giants. Anyway, the reminder is this. When trading with a non-competitive team, you can often pick from Column A or Column B. Column A is you send them prospect talent. Column B is you send them a lot of money (or take a contract off of their hands). Both have value. The more you do in Column A, the less you need to do in Column B and vice versa.
The Cubs could take on a fair amount of salary, and they have more prospect depth than most teams. They can mix and match and do different things. I do think they need to make a big splashy José Quintana like move for the rotation. But, this is definitely a team that can be spruced up around the edges. Jon Berti, Vidal Bruján, Justin Turner, Colin Rea, Ben Brown, Chris Flexen, and Génesis Cabrera are all players that could be meaningfully replaced. You may not agree with all of them. And with some like Rea and Brown, maybe their replacement is them replacing someone in the bullpen.
None of them absolutely must be replaced, but several of them are spots where you could add. Also, all teams suffer injuries. This team certainly will. There is some prospect depth, depending on the injury. Hopefully the team will only experience bumps and bruises. But you just can’t know.
It wasn’t a thing of beauty. Seven wins was quite good. You’d have loved eight, but seven was a challenge. They got there. Take it. Catch your breath. Get back to it with another daunting stretch starting Tuesday.
Pitch Counts:
- Pirates: 131, 37 BF (10 IP)
- Cubs: 136, 36 BF (10 IP)
Both teams again did a great job pitching. The two teams combined for 10 hits and six walks. Over 10 innings, that’s not a lot of traffic. Pitching dominated this series start to finish. Not only were all four games in the series decided by one run, they were all low scoring games. There was never a lead larger than two runs at any point in the series. That puts an enormous amount of pressure on every pitcher.
A four-game series with close, competitive games. Of all the pitchers that worked out of the bullpen Sunday, all of them had thrown earlier in the series. Several of them faced batters they’d faced earlier in the series. That can be tricky. Bullpen pitchers aren’t starters for a variety of reasons. One of those reasons is that they don’t have the depth of repertoire to see the same guy over and over again. Hats off to all of the relievers on both sides.
The Cubs won this game with four hitless innings out of their bullpen. They did walk two. They faced one batter over the minimum over the final four innings. We’ve reached the point where unless the entire bullpen craters over the next month, I’m going to be annoyed if there isn’t one Cub reliever in the All-Star game. I know how hard it is for a reliever to get in and I know that the odds of a non-closer are massive. Drew Pomeranz has pitched in 20 games and allowed one unearned run. Chris Flexen has thrown 18⅓ innings over 11 games and has allowed one unearned run.
Somehow, Porter Hodge is historically the most trusted reliever on this team (though now on the injured list) and has the highest ERA among pitchers with more than 10 innings of work. He’ll almost certainly return to the inner circle of relievers for this team when he returns. He’s at Iowa on rehab assignment. He’ll be back soon. Things are just so interesting. I talked about the relievers who haven’t allowed runs, but when I say one guy, maybe Daniel Palencia who leads the team in saves. Caleb Thielbar, the lefty specialist. Both of those two are running ERA’s under 2.00 with 25ish innings of work.
This has been one of the more remarkable Cub teams I’ve ever seen. Certainly the best one I’ve covered. This team only has four fewer wins than the 2016 team after 72 games. I don’t think for a second this team compares favorably to that one. But it’s a different season. This team compares favorably to 2025 MLB teams. That’s enough for me.
Three Stars:
- Colin Rea bounced back huge after a rough first inning. He allowed three hits in the first and then only one hit and one walk the remainder of the six innings he worked. They needed length and they needed effectiveness. He did both.
- Chris Flexen gets the second spot for me. It’s amazingly difficult to hold the other team scoreless with the ghost runner, bottom of the order or no.
- I’ll make it a perfect three for three with the bullpen. Dansby Swanson is probably a reasonable choice here with a pair of hits and a run batted in. But I’m going Génesis Cabrera. He only needed three batters to get through the top three in the Pirates order in a scoreless eighth inning. He did walk a batter, but got the needed double play.
Along with the honorable mention for Swanson, I’ll add two more. Obviously, Ian Happ for the walk-off and then Ryan Pressly. Three batters, 4, 5 and 6 in the order. Two strikeouts with the game on the line. Every contribution matters in a game like this.
Game 72, June 15: Cubs 3, Pirates 2 (44-28)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Chris Flexen (.305). IP, 3 BF (W 4-0)
- Hero: Colin Rea (.137). 6 IP, 23 BF, 4 H, BB, 2 ER, 4 K
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.134). 1-4, BB, RBI, R, SB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Justin Turner (-.200). 0-4
- Goat: Jon Berti (-.176). 0-4
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.088). 0-4, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s walk-off single with one out in the tenth. (.160)
*Pirates Play of the Game: Dennis Santana retiring Justin Turner with two outs in the ninth. (.131)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd received 146 of 162 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +23
- Jameson Taillon +17
- Drew Pomeranz +13
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +12
- Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
- Jon Berti -9
- Ben Brown -14
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Seiya Suzuki -16.5
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
Up Next: What will feel like a glorious off day on Monday after 13 straight days. Certainly, even for those of us behind a keyboard at home, it’s a very welcome day off. Next up is a Brewers team that the Cubs last saw May 2-4 in Milwaukee, where they won two of of three. After that series, the Brewers were 17-18. They are 22-16 since, including taking three of four from the Cardinals over the weekend.
Ben Brown (3-5, 5.71, 69⅓ IP) starts for the Cubs. It is is his 13th start and 15th appearance overall. He’s lost his last two starts. Brown pitched well in one, poorly in the other. He’s 0-3 with a 6.39 over his last seven appearances. He did face the Brewers in the earlier series. He threw six scoreless innings. He allowed only four hits and no walks. Imanaga returns soon for the Cubs. Ben Brown is gifted, but I’m not sure how patient this team can be with him. He needs to string together some stronger outings.
26-year-old Chad Patrick (3-6, 3.25 ERA, 74⅔ IP) starts for the Brewers. He, too, has lost his last two starts. He too threw well in one and poorly in the other. Chad was a fourth-round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2021 (107th overall). He did not pitch against the Cubs earlier this year. This is his rookie season. He was traded twice as a minor leaguer during the 2023 season. The Cubs are 33-18 when the other team starts a right-handed pitcher.
Despite the win/loss record, Patrick has pitched pretty effectively. I don’t have to tell you how well the Brewers have played through the years at Wrigley Field or how well run an organization they are or how well they are playing. Nothing is going to be easy this week either.