The offense stays stalled, but pitching carries the Cubs to a 2-1 win.
Yet again, the Cubs offense struggled. For the first time this year, this team is not really rising to challenges. They are struggling day after day. But, they won again Saturday. One can simultaneously accept the win and that they did just enough while also recognizing that this team just isn’t giving itself any margin for error. And yet, 13 straight games, six of them against two of the best teams in baseball. Twelve games in, they are 6-6.
Seven felt like the over/under line for this stretch of games. You hoped for eight, would settle for seven and six isn’t a disaster. Eight is out of the question now, so you are down to those last two outcomes. Buckle up folks, they’re going to finish this 13, get one day off and then do it again. 13 straight again, building to a total of 26 games in 27 days.
One of the challenges that this team did survive was the first two pitchers who have made three starts with four days and four days rest. Three starts in 11 days. In the modern game, those opportunities are increasingly rare. Cade Horton Friday and Matthew Boyd Saturday both aced that challenge. It gave the Cubs a chance to win those two games. One came up short, but they got the second one.
Craig Counsell has done masterful work over the 12 days, getting just enough out of the starters to keep the bullpen fresh and just enough out of the bullpen to keep the rotation fresh. That’s tough balance. But hats off to the rotation. Not one starter got truly blown up in the 12 games. Ben Brown had the one ragged start in there, but even then he hung in there long enough to not let the team get upside down.
The Cubs offense only managed six hits and drew no walks. Each team hit a homer. The difference in the game was the Cubs’ one other run besides the homer. This stretch has seen them less destructive on the bases, but they did steal two bases Saturday and one of those two runners came around to score a crucial run on a sac fly. So the Cubs used big ball to score one and small ball to score one.
So really, I’ll call it a five-phase win. Starter: check. Relievers: check. Small ball: check. Big ball: check. Defense: check. The two spots we haven’t talked about above, three Cubs relievers, weren’t crisp. They combined to allow four hits and a walk. No clean innings among them. But also, no runs. The defense turned a double play, there was a pickoff and a caught stealing. This is six pickoffs for Boyd and opposing runners have been successful on three of five steals against him besides. At some point, you are going to need to drop anchor on Boyd. He does have four errors on the season, leading MLB among pitchers. But he also leads MLB in pickoffs.
Pitch Counts:
- Pirates: 111, 30 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 140, 32 BF
The Pirates are an offensively inept team. They’ve put together some pitching. That team has to figure out how to find and keep some offensive talent. Mike Burrows doesn’t have the pedigree of the pitchers the Cubs had in this stretch, but his results were terrific. He pitched into the sixth, recording an out there. He only threw 81 pitches. I talked in the preview for this one that he wasn’t getting hugely deep pitch count wise.
Part of the 81 came from striking out eight. I’m having trouble giving the Cubs too much credit for the just shy of the 40 percent of the pitches that went towards strikeouts. Unless managers start regularly reducing pitchers to around 60 pitches, striking out isn’t a particularly viable strategy.
The Pirate bullpen threw 30 pitches to record eight outs. That’s not bad. Neither of the two pitchers that threw in this one threw Friday. I would expect the Pirates to have literally their entire pitching staff available Sunday ahead of an off day Monday.
On the Cubs side, Boyd threw six. That took 93 pitches. He only struck out three. He allowed only one hit (a homer) and one walk. He just wiped out the Pirate offense. They came back to life against three of the Cubs top relievers. With Brad Keller getting a day off, Drew Pomeranz went back-to-back, Daniel Palencia threw a third straight. Ryan Pressly didn’t throw Saturday. There’s no way Palencia throws Sunday. Pomeranz didn’t get really pushed either day. He hasn’t been used for three straight before, but both Palencia and Caleb Thielbar have. So Counsell isn’t unwilling to do it in the right situation.
The Cubs are going to be a bit shorthanded for just the second time in 13 straight games. This has been brilliantly managed. We’ll talk about it later, but one or both of Colin Rea or the Cubs offense has to step up if this is going to be a seven win stretch.
Three Stars:
- Matthew Boyd gets the top spot. One hit, one walk, one pickoff, six innings. That’s a fantastic line. The team doesn’t win without him.
- Dansby Swanson came up with the homer that ended up being decisive.
- Nico Hoerner had two hits, a stolen base and a run scored.
Game 71, June 14: Cubs 2, Pirates 1 (43-28)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matthew Boyd (.224). 6 IP, 19 BF, H, BB, ER, 3 K (W 6-3)
- Hero: Daniel Palencia (.154). IP, 4 BF, H, 2 K (Sv 6)
- Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.122). 1-3, HR, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.106). 0-4
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.076). 0-3
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.070). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson homered with two outs in the sixth, giving the Cubs a 2-1 lead that ended up being the final. (.198)
*Pirates Play of the Game: Andrew McCutchen homered with one out in the first for the game’s first run. It was the last hit Matthew Boyd allowed. (.105)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Cade Horton received 121 of 127 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +23
- Jameson Taillon +17
- Drew Pomeranz +13
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +12
- Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
- Matt Shaw -8.33
- Ben Brown -14
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Seiya Suzuki -15.5
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
Up Next: The last of the first 13 games of this stretch. The Cubs can still pull through with seven wins. But they have to win Sunday. As I noted above, Colin Rea (4-2, 3.92, 62 IP) makes his 11th (15th total appearance). He’s 2-2 with a 5.54 in 37⅓ IP over his last seven appearances, six starts and a bulk relief outing. He won a game back on May 1 in Pittsburgh, started by Paul Skenes. He threw six innings of two-run ball.
The Pirates start 29-year-old righty Mitch Keller (1-9, 4.15, 82⅓ IP). There’s little question that he’s pitched better over his 14 starts than a 1-9 record. He has a 3.95 over his last seven and six of them are losses. Keller was a second round pick for the Pirates back in 2014 (64th overall). He didn’t start in the earlier series between these teams. He was 1-1 last year against the Cubs, allowing five runs in 10 innings of work. He was good in Chicago and bad in Pittsburgh.
I think it is hard to feel too confident about this one. But perhaps, the Cubs can outlast the Pirates one more time.