The Cubs lose 7-2 to the Phillies and so, lose the series and the road trip.
For the first seven games of this road trip, the Cubs were pretty good at not getting behind on pitching. Last night, going after the win in the eighth game, they got behind. So we knew going into this game that if Ben Brown didn’t start strong, they might have some trouble. He didn’t start strong and despite not pitching well, there he was into the sixth inning. This was exactly the scenario you didn’t want to develop.
On the other side, I saw some talk that perhaps Jesús Luzardo had been tipping pitches in his last two starts. It feels to me that both the Blue Jays and the Brewers who lit him up in his last two starts have been the kind of teams who have top notch scouting of opponents. So, I’m buying that story a bit. Also, looking start by start, Luzardo had been very good in both ERA and FIP with only one hiccup in each (not from the same game). Actually, in all but one game, he had a FIP below 3.00. So not surprising that he bounced back and was pretty good in this one.
For all too many times on this trip, the Cubs offense just couldn’t sustain an assault. This is the downside from not having enough quality starting pitching. Good starting pitching can steal a game where the offense isn’t clicking. The Cubs aren’t getting enough of those games, particularly against good offensive teams. But some of these other good teams have now stifled the Cubs offense.
I lowered my DEFCON from 5 to 4 once earlier this year. Signifying that there was potentially trouble in paradise. I’m not particularly concerned, but I’ve watched enough Cubs teams wilt at this time of the year to lower us from 5 to 4 again. If for no other reason, stiff competition and they are only finishing the first nine days of 26 games in 27 days. There are now circumstances that if they don’t change, will be a drag on this team. To be fair and clear, I expect them to rise to this challenge as they have so many times before. But, it feels blind not to say that they haven’t been very crisp on this tough stretch.
We aren’t scoreboard watching yet, right? But if we were, all of the competitive teams in the Central also lost Wednesday. I have very little concern there. If the Cubs, don’t wilt on their own, I believe they’ll win the division by at least 10 games. Your mileage may vary on that. But I think the team we saw over the first 68 games is head and shoulders better than this division. We shall see.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 135, 36 BF (8 IP)
- Phillies: 150, 36 BF
Unscientifically, I’ve identified 150 pitches at the place where good things are happening for your offense. The Cubs did push the Phillies there. They did manage eight hits and drew a walk. They didn’t lose any runners on the bases. So there was decent traffic. But they just didn’t cash in. Pitching was fairly effective against the Cubs on this trip. Even in some of the games where they won, they didn’t really cash in a ton. That sounds stupid because they scored 29 runs in the four wins. They scored six runs across the five losses, getting shutout twice. 35 runs across nine isn’t terrible. My general impression was, when they weren’t hitting homers, they didn’t get much offense on this trip. And that just hasn’t otherwise been a thing.
On the pitching side, 135 is actually not terrible across eight innings. It certainly doesn’t sound like the recipe for seven runs allowed. They allowed 10 hits and three walks. So the Phillies managed not a whole lot short of two batters per inning. A couple of homers helped them out. The Cubs used two relievers. Genesis Cabrera and Drew Pomeranz both stayed under 20 pitches, Cabrera recording four outs in his outing. Brown got deep enough to restore bullpen equilibrium. The entire compliment of relievers should be available Thursday at Wrigley Field and save from actually getting a complete game, you couldn’t get a much clearer slate for the 10th game of 13 straight.
Three Stars:
- An eyelash separates the top two. Carson Kelly had two hits, one a double and scored a run.
- Nico Hoerner had two hits, one a double and drove in a run.
- Ian Happ had a double and a run scored.
Game 68, June 11: Phillies 7, Cubs 2 (41-27)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Carson Kelly (.053). 2-4, 2B, R
- Hero: Justin Turner (.019). 1-4
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.013). 2-4, 2B, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ben Brown (-.312). 5⅔ IP, 28 BF, 8 H, 3 BB, 6 ER, 5 K (L 3-5)
- Goat: Matt Shaw (-.080). 0-3, BB
- Kid: Vidal Brujan (-.057). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Max Kepler batted with a runner on second and two outs in the first, the Phillies up one. He singled, driving in a run. (.091)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner batted with a runner on third and two outs, the Cubs down four. He doubled in a run. (.057)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Ian Happ received 161 of 167 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +23
- Jameson Taillon +15
- Drew Pomeranz +13
- Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
- Jon Berti -7
- Seiya Suzuki -12.5
- Ben Brown -14
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Dansby Swanson -19.33
Up Next: The Cubs start a four-game series against the last-place Pirates (28-41). If you are peeking at the scoreboard, the Cardinals start a four-game series against the Brewers in Milwaukee. Still too early for much thought process there, but If the Cubs take care of business this weekend and win at least three from the Pirates, they should gain at least one and maybe two games on one of their rivals.
Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.54, 76⅓ IP) is exactly the guy I want on the mound right now for a big game situation. He’s won his last three starts, allowing only four earned runs over 19⅔ innings. This is his 14th start of the year, but he didn’t pitch in the earlier series against the Pirates. He’s been much better at home (2.70 ERA vs. 4.31). He’s been worse at night, though, if you’re looking for a downside.
Hey, another first-round draft pick on the other side. Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.24, 72⅓ IP) was the ninth overall pick of the Marlins in 2012. The left-hander will be making the 14th start of his season and 199th of his career (217th overall). He’s been pretty good in his last two starts. He did pitch against the Cubs back at the end of April in Pittsburgh. The Cubs put four runs on the board in 4⅔ innings. Heaney took the loss. Heaney too has pitched better at home and better during the day, though the splits aren’t massive in either spot. His numbers are good in pretty much every situation. May was a bit of a down spot for him, but he’s bounced back nice in June.
This looks close on paper. I think the Cubs bounce back though.