A little short in Philly and the Cubs lose 4-3 in 11.
My thoughts on modern extra inning baseball are well known. I won’t belabor that. The Cubs are 3-4 in extra innings. In what is a coin flip game (more or less regardless of talent level), that’s not awful. But, there aren’t a lot of splits in which the Cubs have a negative expectation. They are also 4-5 on turf. Anyone remember when, for a short time, there were a lot of teams playing on turf?
It’s something when the final feels simultaneously like the right result for the other team and mildly disappointing. I don’t know that it’s true, but I felt that if Dansby Swanson had gotten the run home from third with one out in the 11th that with a two-run lead they’d have won. You definitely have to play for more than one run when the opportunity presents itself.
This was a game where Zack Wheeler dominated. Matthew Boyd tried to match him. For the second time in recent starts, his nifty little pickoff move cost him a run. And yet he also picked a runner off. The Cubs allowed a ton of traffic in this one. They reached extra innings largely on the strength of their defense. A pickoff, three double plays, two outfield assists. Those are just the extra outs. There were some good ones besides that.
In the end, two perfect bunts cost the Cubs a game. That’s the stupidity of extra inning baseball. The Phillies somewhat outplayed the Cubs through 10 and then win in 11 on fluky bunts. To be fair, the Cubs had one inning where they crushed three balls and all three found gloves. If you assume that some amount of luck evens out over the full season, I suppose I prefer it rearing against really good teams than against the bad ones. Theoretically, maybe you could overcome the bad luck against bad teams. But, you also then run the risk of losing to both the good teams and the bad ones.
Losing three of four and four of six feels like one of the worst stretches of the year for the team. It’s not terribly shocking that those four losses were all to elite pitchers. The margin of error is always tough against elite pitching. Also, the Cubs don’t quite have enough pitching to handle the reduced margin of error.
Bottom line, when you allow 16 hits and issue three walks, you don’t usually find yourself losing a close game. The Cubs were fortunate to be in this one.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 121, 44 BF (10+ IP)
- Phillies: 171, 42 BF (11 IP)
These are some wild numbers. Even if you ignore that several batters happened in the 11th, the Cubs numbers over 10 innings would be terrific. Matthew Boyd threw six very efficient innings. The bullpen picked up and got it done. Also, the Phillies had Daniel Palencia throw only 14 pitches to seven batters. Pretty remarkable end to the game.
The Phillies used five relievers to throw five innings. They combined to allow two runs, one earned. They only allowed two hits, but did walk two. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering threw 22 and 23 pitches respectively and may have reduced availability in the remainder of the series.
The Cubs used four relievers to complete four plus innings. They combined to allow eight hits and one walk. This was one of the worst bullpen performances in a long time. And yet, two runs, one earned. Palencia threw the most at 14 pitches. They should largely all be available as needed. Ryan Pressly was the only Cub pitcher to work in this with an ERA over 4 (4.13). Have I ever mentioned that almost that whole ERA occurred in one appearance? He struck out two.
Three Stars:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong was hitless until he came to the plate in the 11th and then came through with a huge double. It isn’t his fault that didn’t end up the game winner.
- Kyle Tucker had a pair of hits including the first earned run Zack Wheeler allowed in the first inning this year.
- Drew Pomeranz faced two batters and retired them both on six pitches. 16 appearances and 15⅓ innings to start his season without allowing a run. At some point he has to be approaching most appearances without allowing one.
Game 66, June 9: Phillies 4, Cubs 3 (40-26)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.203). 1-5, 2B, RBI
- Hero: Drew Pomeranz (.134). ⅔ IP, 2 BF
- Sidekick: Brad Keller (.109). 1⅓ IP, 5 BF, 3 H
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.247). IP, 7 BF, 4 H, BB, 2 R (ER) (L 0-2)
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.240). 0-5
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.178). 1-4
WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s 11th inning one-out, RBI-double. (.279)
*Phillies Play of the Game: J.T. Realmuto’s single that tied the game in the 11th. (.268)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Dansby Swanson 105 of 134 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +23
- Jameson Taillon +15
- Drew Pomeranz +13
- PCA +12
- Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
- Jon Berti -7
- Ben Brown -11
- Seiya Suzuki -12.5
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
Up Next: Game two of the three game series. Colin Rea (4-2, 3.59, 57⅔ IP) will start for the Cubs. He won his last appearance following Pomeranz as the opener. He threw 5⅓ innings in Washington and allowed five hits, one walk and one hit batter with no runs. He won a start against the Phillie in Milwaukee last year.
Hey, another first round pick on the mound. It just keeps happening. At least this one has only two big league starts after being the 15th overall pick in 2020. He is 1-0 with an 0.79 ERA in 11⅓ innings. He has struck out 11. He’s also 6-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 10 minor league starts this year. He strikes out a lot of batters and doesn’t have the high walk total that you usually see with such pitchers. This is another tough one.
You have to hope you can break out of the mini slump against a rookie. Any time teams want to stop throwing first-round picks at the Cubs every day is fine by me.