The Cubs bounce back with a 7-1 win to take yet another series.
Ho hum. Another challenge faced, another challenge defeated. The Nationals are rebuilding. But there are no guarantees on the road. I mean other than maybe the Rockies in Miami. What a strange week it was. The Nationals aren’t one of those teams, though. This team has some talent. Wednesday’s starter MacKenzie Gore might be their most talented player. But he’s not the only one.
The Cubs used early offense to tilt the odds in their favor. Unsurprisingly, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker were in the middle of the first one, a homer by PCA followed a Tucker double, only one batter apart. For the record, I pointed out that I don’t like PCA hitting cleanup against lefties, but I love it against a righty. I actually love the stack 1 to 7 of Thursday night’s lineup. S-L-R-L-R-L-R with the two guys who are usually the most unbalanced in favor of versus lefties between the three potent lefty hitters.
Drew Pomeranz did the opener thing again. He did allow a single, but a Kyle Tucker outfield assist erased it. For his second time opening for the Cubs, he faced three batters in an opening inning. I didn’t watch the game, so I can’t speak to it, but I understand Colin Rea got some help from the defense. That said, perhaps we don’t launch him into the sun off of two bad starts against the Reds. No one has ever thought Rea was the solution to the Cub problems. But he’s the guy right now. He’s done a pretty good job.
Ian Happ had an RBI double in the second, two-run homer in the sixth and an RBI single in the ninth. Starting with game two against the Rockies, this is now three multi-hit games over his last eight games. There are also two games in there with a hit and a walk. The signs of life are accelerating. Just in case you were wondering, .259/.348/.373 (wRC+ 109) after tonight. He’s usually 120ish, so his numbers aren’t way off. Three Gold Gloves and an All-Star appearance. I’ve felt for a while that Ian is more respected outside of Chicago than in it.
Ryan Pressly ended a string of scoreless appearances based upon a two-out catcher’s interference, defensive indifference and RBI-single. Over his last 22 games, he’s had 19 scoreless outings, two where the defense let him down and the game that shall never again be discussed. The Cubs check in at 11th in ERA by ninth inning or later. Of course, Pressly’s disaster is in there. I can no longer find team pitching splits on Baseball Reference, so I can’t find ERA by ninth inning only across all teams. I can tell you that heading into Thursday night, the Cubs had a ninth inning ERA of 1.63. The only inning remotely close is the second.
It’s fascinating that a team without a clear closer for most of the year has been one of the best ninth inning teams. If we properly consider Pomeranz a reliever, four Cubs relievers put together 11 outs, three hits, no walks. This is as remarkable a collective run as I can ever remember. The Cubs “relief” stats will be further distorted, with a second very good bulk outing. The last two opener usages by this team have both seen no earned runs for the entire game.
I have I mentioned this team is special yet?
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 141, 36 BF
- Nationals: 168, 46 BF
An efficient game for the Cubs. Rea used very well against a lineup stacked against him. He only threw 80 pitches. But, combined with the opener, that got the game into the seventh inning. No Cub who’s normally a reliever threw 20 pitches. Two Cubs threw in the first two games of the series. One Cub threw in the first two games and two threw the first and third. Quite possibly all hands are on deck Friday in Detroit.
Daniel Palencia has gravitated into “probably needs to get some work.” Only five Cub relievers threw at any point in this series. Really great performance and deployment over the first three of 13 straight games. No ground yielded in the war. Series won. That’s a battle win and a war win in my book.
Three Stars:
- Ian Happ’s coming out party. The fifth three-hit game of the season for him (he also has a four-hit game). Six total bases ties a season high for him. Four runs batted in ties a season high. An outfield assist (with a hat tip to Nico Hoerner on the tag).
- Colin Rea gets the nod here. 5⅓ innings, five hits, one walk. He didn’t strike anyone out and had some defensive help. But the performance is very effective. Season ERA is at 3.59. Not the garbage some still think he is.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong. The early homer helped launch this game. Probably jealous that he didn’t get in on the outfield assist game with his buddies flanking him.
Game 62, June 5: Cubs 7, Nationals 1 (39-23)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.198). 5⅓ IP, 22 BF, 5 H, BB, 0 ER, 0 K, HBP (W 4-2)
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.119). 1-5, HR, 2 RBI
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.118). 3-6, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.051). 1-5, R
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.040). 2-4, BB
- Kid: Ryan McGuire (-.010). 2-5, RBI, R
Suzuki gets some tough love. Strikeout with a runner on second in the first (-.034), pop out, first and second and one out (-.026), single with a runner on first and two outs (.015), single bases empty (.004), walk bases empty (.001). Where the leverage was greatest, he was out.
WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s first inning two-run homer. (.179)
*Nationals Play of the Game: Luis Garcia Jr. one out double down three in the fifth. (.044)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd 185 of 185 votes. I closed the poll with less than an hour to go. No last second party poopers after a whole other game has occurred.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +20
- Jameson Taillon +12
- Shōta Imanaga/Drew Pomeranz/Miguel Amaya +11
- Jon Berti -7
- Seiya Suzuki -8.5
- Ben Brown -11
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
Up Next: The Cubs head to Detroit to play arguably the best team in baseball to date. The 41-23 Tigers just lost Thursday and split four games with the White Sox in Chicago. So not on their best. It was a full mixed bag four games too. Blowout win, blowout loss, close win, close loss in extra innings.
No indication that the Cubs will employ an opener for Ben Brown (3-3, 5.72, 56⅔ IP). He’s coming off of his best outing of the year, throwing innings 2-7 with six scoreless innings, a hit and a walk. Hopefully, he fixed something. The eye test said yes. In six May outings, he was 1-1 with a 5.46 in 31⅓ IP.
You probably have heard the opposition by now. We’ve talked about challenges and climbing mountains. Hard to not see 28-year-old Tarik Skubal as the modern Mt. Everest. I’ve been trying to settle on best pitcher since comps. It feels like it has been a minute since a Cy Young winner looked like to repeat, right? Or am I forgetting someone. Too soon for things like best since Johnson or Clemens or Maddux or anything crazy like that. I guess Gerrit Cole (talking about results solely on this talking point and not style).
Skubal (5-2, 2.26, 75⅔ IP) was a ninth-round pick (255th overall) in 2018. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last two starts (16 innings). Six starts in May (2-0, 2.20, 41 IP). His first strikeout will be his 100th of the season. There’s no silver lining here. The Cubs have had some struggles against left handed starters. But they still boast a .795 OPS against lefty starters (versus .770 against righty starters).
I’m not going to BS anyone. This is a monumental task. Also, only two wins in six May starts. So not inconceivable.