The Cubs take care of business in a 7-3 win.
I know there are some who are looking for this team to just obliterate some of these lesser opponents. This week has not been a work of art. I see all of the things that you all do. And yet, the Cubs have won four of five. They remain one ahead of the surprising Cardinals. As an aside, I’m never truly surprised by the Cardinals. I always figure that when in doubt, the Cardinals will always rise to the occasion. The organization has 11 championships, even though the last one was in 2011. They’ve had losing records twice going back to 2000. In that time, they’ve won two World Series and appeared in the playoffs 16 times (11 division titles).
But you didn’t come here to talk about the Cardinals. The Cubs fell behind early again against the White Sox Saturday. The Cubs fell behind one in the first and then roared to life. I discussed in my sneak peek at Saturday’s games that Sean Burke had some issues with control. A pair of walks contributed to the inning. In all, the Cubs notched three hits, all singles, drew two walks, stole two bases and scored four runs.
You couldn’t know then, but that ended up being everything the Cubs needed. Matthew Boyd threw a minimum qualification quality start by allowing three runs over six innings and three Cub relievers shut it down. The Cubs would add two in the fifth, including a Dansby Swanson homer. A couple of walks, a steal and a single capped the scoring in the eighth.
Nine hits, four of them for extra bases. 11 walks and six stolen bases contributed to the seven run output. The Cubs got hits when they needed them, patiently took their walks and aggressively ran the bases. These are some of the common ingredients to this 27-19 start for this team. If this team can pull together enough pitching, they’ll win 90 plus games.
I wasn’t writing about this team in 2016. So I didn’t see this team through those eyes. It’s closing on a decade that I have been writing about this team. I can’t remember being this content with a Cubs team. I see the glaring hole at third with the disastrously bad revolving door. I see the unsteady bullpen with a different revolving door that seems to come up on craps once a week. Particularly with Shōta Imanaga hurt, there isn’t anything resembling dominant starting pitching, though I do see Colin Rea glaring at me over there. Even a little of Matthew Boyd. But there just isn’t that bulldog you think can will a victory against a good team.
I just feel like this team is going to largely keep stacking at least two out of three, don’t buy that the Cardinals are going to win 95+ and think that this Cubs team will do enough to win a division title. Just past that, I see the shadow of teams like the Dodgers, Padres and Mets. I don’t think there is much chance of the Cubs reaching the World Series, even though I think there is a decent chance of them being one of the final four teams in the NL. So I don’t see breaking the bank as a strategy. But I do think this team will be there and ready to capitalize if someone isn’t on their game in October.
That’s been a recipe for me the most patient and comfortable I’ve ever been writing about this team. Sundays have been a disaster for this team. I’m interested to see if they can overcome that against a firmly in rebuild mode White Sox team. First, we’ve got to look at Saturday’s win.
Pitch Counts:
- White Sox: 159 (8 IP), 45 BF
- Cubs: 147, 34 BF
Here, we see the Cubs patient approach pay off big time. The White Sox were essentially at that 20 pitches per inning mark. Within that, White Sox starter Sean Burke didn’t complete five innings. They ended up only using four pitchers though because Mike Vasil threw 46 pitches out of the pen to save the others. The White Sox probably have everyone but Vasil available for Sunday’s game. To the extent that there are identifiable “A” relievers for the Sox, they haven’t been needed in the series.
The Cubs weren’t massively efficient, but part of that came through 12 strikeouts. They only allowed six hits and a walk. Daniel Palencia has thrown in the first two games of the series. He is quickly becoming one of the most trusted relievers, seeing a lot of leverage outs in the sixth and some seventh innings. Brad Keller threw 20 Saturday and warmed Friday. Craig Counsell is probably unlikely to push Keller to throw Sunday, so I imagine he’s in more of an emergency type of role, like a 10th inning or something like that.
Porter Hodge was used. He’s likely to see a leverage situation if the Sunday game is winnable. Drew Pomeranz hasn’t been used and will possibly be looked at for the biggest outs Sunday, if the game is close, I’m confident the Cubs have enough pen ready to roll.
Three Stars:
- Dansby Swanson reached four times in five plate appearances. He hit a homer, drew a couple of walks, stole a couple of bases and scored three runs. It always feels like there is a little frustration about Dansby. He continues to play great defense, provide leadership and through Saturday, he has a .253/.316/.477 line that isn’t eye-popping but is good for a 119 wRC+. The bat plays, the glove plays and his speed has been a decent factor. He could steal 20 for the first time in his career.
- Nico Hoerner also reached base four times. He had a pair of singles, drew two walks, stole a base, drove in a run and scored two. The Cubs middle infield really filled the scorecard. His wRC+ sits just a little lower at 94. That’s a lot of production out of two middle infielders with elite defense.
- Matthew Boyd gets the nod here, though probably half the team fits here. He finished six innings on 92 pitches. Four hits and eight strikeouts. No walks. You don’t love three homers, but 92 pitches does two things. 1) it isn’t a lot of wear and tear on the arm and 2) in a pinch, he could go out for a seventh and help a tired bullpen.
Game 46, May 17: Cubs 7, White Sox 3 (27-19)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.168). 2-3, HR, 2 BB, RBI, 3 R, 2 SB
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.116). 2-3, 2 BB, RBI, 2 R, SB
- Sidekick: Miguel Amaya (.112). 1-4, BB, 2 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.086). 1-5, 2B
- Goat: Michael Busch (-.044). 0-4, BB
- Kid: Justin Turner (-.012). 0-1, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Tim Elko homered leading off the fifth. That cut the Cubs lead to one. (.117)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson homered with one out in the fifth. That bumped that lead back to two. (.114)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: PCA received 226 of 231 votes
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +16
- Shōta Imanaga +11
- 4 players +8
- Matt Shaw -7
- Ben Brown -9
- Michael Busch -10.5
- Julian Merryweather -13
- Seiya Suzuki -13.5
Up Next: As noted above, the Cubs try to overcome their Sunday issues and complete a three game sweep of the White Sox. I love Colin Rea (3-0, 2.48, 36⅓ IP) in this spot. A) Colin has been terrific this year and B) a journeyman starter isn’t looking past anyone, coasting or any other such thing. This doesn’t mean the Sox won’t fight to not be swept. Colin is 2-0 and has allowed eight earned runs over 17⅔ innings in May.
24-year-old Jonathan Cannon (2-4, 3.60, 50 IP) starts for the White Sox. The 2022 third-round pick of the Sox (101st overall) makes his 29th career start (33rd appearance overall). He’s also thrown well in May. He has allowed four runs in 18 innings. On a bad team, he simply doesn’t have a ton to show for it. He throws a lot of strikes. He’s only walked 17 in 50 innings, none this month. The Cubs continue to excel against right-handed starters. Cannon did not face the Cubs last year.
The Cubs haven’t swept a series since early April in Sacramento. That was also against an American League team. The Cubs are 7-1 against AL teams.