The Cubs win 13-3 behind PCA and some sloppy White Sox play.
The Cubs continue to excel in the first game of each series, particularly at Wrigley Field. I still suspect most of this is random sequencing. It’s ironic, because the way the Cubs can make other pitching staffs work, I might expect them to do well at the end of a series. But that hasn’t been the way it’s gone so far in 2025. I don’t think it means anything. But it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. It harkens back a handful of years. The Cubs once talked about lacking the killer instinct to close out series, that they were leaving too many games behind.
I sparked some good debate in the comments a couple of days ago and it was pointed out that the Cubs have “underachieved” against lefty starters, largely because they blew a couple of games that they were winning. Included was one where they led 7-0. So, some of the deceptive results stem from outside variables. I suspect or similar things are happening with the beginning and end of series as well. These things are likely to all find their level eventually.
Friday afternoon’s game was an unusual one. Part of my love of baseball comes from the things that I don’t particularly feel like I’ve seen before. It’s funny, a win like Tuesday night feels somewhat ordinary. That sort of victory will happen for most teams at least two or three times and for some of the better teams, a handful or more of such wins. But Friday’s game was an unusual one.
After the Cubs fell behind 2-0, the Cubs offense started the bottom of the second with a single and a double. The White Sox brought their infield in, early in a game with the wind blowing out. Starter Shane Smith got the strikeout he needed against Dansby Swanson. That brought up Moses Ballesteros with the infield still in. Moises hit a grounder to first, exactly the type of result Smith needed. But the throw home arrived fairly simultaneously with Michael Busch, who slid around White Sox catcher Matt Thaiss and scored the first run. The infield was in again when Nico Hoerner hit a grounder to short. Carson Kelly was caught dead. Only Thaiss didn’t catch the ball.
Smith got the two grounders he needed to get out of the inning, but got no outs. You can’t assume, but if the Sox just played back, they get out of that inning with just a single run. That all backfired with the aggressive strategy when Pete Crow-Armstrong launched his 12th homer. A triple and double later, the Cubs were up 6-2 and it was all but over.
The Cubs added seven runs in three innings against four White Sox relievers. Just like that, the Cubs have scored 40 runs over nine games. That is about 4½ runs per game. Much more acceptable. Four usually wins the majority of games at the major league level and the numbers go up significantly at five. I’m not reassessing things after one good day against a bad team. But, the Cubs did what they needed to do. Hopefully, they’ll follow it up with a win Saturday and they’ll have won both series’ on this homestand. Stack series wins and put yourself into position to sweep a series or two.
The Cubs played quite well on Friday. That was reassuring after several lesser games. Let’s keep it going.
Pitch Counts:
- White Sox: 160 (8 IP), 45 BF
- Cubs: 134, 36 BF
On a pitch per batter, the Cubs didn’t particularly wear out the White Sox. The Cubs actually nominally threw more pitches per batter than the Sox. The big difference here is the whopping nine more batters. One full additional time through the lineup. That ends up being a ton of extra pitches. 20 pitches per inning is a bit of a magic number in my head. That will chase virtually every starter from the game before the sixth inning. Most teams don’t have four dominant relievers. Even if they do, they can’t use them every day.
From a long range perspective, the Sox used four relievers (as did the Cubs). Only Yoendrys Gomez threw over 20 pitches. One might think he might not see action Saturday, but none would be down for the series. On the Cubs side, none of the Cubs relievers threw as many as 20 pitches. Each threw a scoreless inning and none faced more than four batters. All should be available on Saturday.
“A” and “B” relievers has been murky of late. Ryan Pressly appears to be out of favor right now. Daniel Palencia has been in favor. Julian Merryweather and Caleb Thielbar are both probably “B” relievers right now. So a bit of a mixed bag. Drew Pomeranz and Porter Hodge are probably the top two relievers right at the moment and neither even warmed up. Brad Keller might be number 3 right at the moment. He warmed but didn’t pitch.
Both teams should be fine with a large complement of relievers Saturday.
Three Stars:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has to get the top spot. Four hits, the big three-run homer. Six runs batted in. By at least one count, PCA has been the second most productive hitter in baseball after Aaron Judge. An ascending superstar.
- Seiya Suzuki had a pair of doubles and a sac fly. He drove in two and scored one.
- Carson Kelly had a single, a double and a walk. He scored two runs. His double helped ignite the huge second inning.
Game 45, May 15: Cubs 13, Sox 3 (26-19)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.293). 4-5, HR, 6 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.127). 2-4, 2B, BB, 2 R
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.105). 2-5, 2B, RBI, 3 R, SB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.070). 1-4, SF, RBI
- Goat: Jon Berti (-.069). 0-3
- Kid: Cade Horton (-.059). 5 IP, 21 BF, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 ER, 2 K (W 2-0)
WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s three-run homer in the second with one out gave the Cubs a three-run lead. (.269)
*White Sox Play of the Game: Miguel Vargas hit a two-run homer with two outs in the first, producing the first two runs of the game. (.184)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Wednesday’s Winner: Seiya Suzuki (77 of 135 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +16
- Shōta Imanaga +11
- Ian Happ/Drew Pomeranz +8
- PCA +7.5
- Matt Shaw/Dansby Swanson -7
- Michael Busch -8.5
- Ben Brown -9
- Seiya Suzuki -10.5
- Julian Merryweather -13
Up Next: Game two of the three game set. Matthew Boyd (3-2, 2.78, 45⅓ IP) makes his ninth start of the season. This will surpass his total from last year. He’s already gone beyond last year’s (regular season) inning total. He pitched well in New York, holding the Mets to two runs over six innings. He struck out eight. He’s thrown six in back-to-back starts and five of eight starts.
25-year-old Sean Burke (2-4, 4.15, 43⅓ IP) will make his 10th appearance and 9th start of the year. The 94th overall pick (3rd round) by the White Sox in 2021 has made a total of 13 appearances with 11 of them being starts in his young career. The Cubs are 21-14 against righty starters. In May, Burke has made three starts, throwing 16⅓ innings, allowing only two runs. His only real issue has been 11 walks over that time. It’ll be interesting to see if the Cubs can take advantage of those control issues.