The anatomy of a comeback — the Cubs win 5-4.
As is the usual case with a come-from-behind win, we’re going to talk a lot about WPA. The game was tied 2-2 in the seventh when Julian Merryweather took the mound. Julian didn’t have it. His fastball is down and he just isn’t effective at this point. This comeback story starts after Merryweather had allowed two runs and then walked two to load the bases. After the walks, with the bases loaded and two outs, the Cubs had only a 16% chance of winning.
Ryan Pressly emerged from the bullpen and got a strikeout. An invaluable out. Technically, it moved the needle a little over 4% in the Cubs direction. But without that out, there is no comeback. Chris Flexen threw a scoreless eighth. Still, with time dwindling, the Cubs win chances dropped to about 15%. Flexen threw a scoreless ninth, albeit not a pretty one. By then, the Cubs had about an 8% chance to win.
I’m betting a lot of you felt it. If the Cubs could get some traffic, they could maybe get this one. When Carson Kelly reached an error, I know all of you perked up. The Cubs odds jumped above 17%. Dansby Swanson walked and the Wrigley faithful rose to their feet. The odds jumped to 31%. Would the rookie Moises Ballesteros walk it off in his first game?
Nope. One of the slowest Cubs in recent memory grounded to second. It was a little bit of an awkward turn and they came up just short of Ballesteros at first. Losing an out, the Cubs were down to about 20%. But that brought Nico Hoerner to the plate. With runners at the corners, I had no doubt that Nico would get a run in. It didn’t take long for him to single to center. I had thought he might ground or fly out to get that first run in.
With a single, the Cubs’ chance to win jumped to 45%. That brought Justin Turner to the plate. 40-year-old Turner is not fleet of foot and is another double-play candidate. Justin had batted 71 times without an extra base hit. But he looped one into left that tailed into the corner. You knew when the ball hit the ground that no coach was going to stop Hoerner at third. The Marlins would need a perfect relay.
They didn’t get it. The Cubs stole a victory right from the Marlins win column. It’s way too early, but everyone else who played in the division lost. The Cardinals did not play due to rain and will look to play two in Philadelphia Wednesday, a long day of baseball for them against a formidable opponent on the road. I’ll go out on a limb and predict the losing streak ends. They are more likely to lose two than win two.
As has been so often the case this year, a Cubs win featured a lot of contributions. This team is good.
Pitch Counts:
- Marlins: 141, 36 BF (8⅓ IP)
- Cubs: 146, 40 BF
This one was all over the map. The Cubs made starter Valente Bellozo work hard, chasing him after four plus innings. Calvin Faucher had a six-pitch fifth inning after Bellozo left. He came in with runners on second and third and needed only six pitches to escape allowing a single run. That masks the overall numbers a fair bit. The Cubs didn’t do much of anything in the sixth through eighth innings either.
You have to love beating the other team’s closer. Jesus Tinoco threw 17 pitches, recording only one out. He’s likely available Wednesday night though. Merryweather and Flexen each threw 30 pitches. Hard to imagine either being available Wednesday. Porter Hodge hasn’t seen the field and the Cubs have two wins in the series. The sweep is in play.
Game 43, May 13: Cubs 5, Marlins 4 (25-18)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Justin Turner (.570). 1-1, 2B, BB, 2 RBI
*Second largest WPA game score of the season for the Cubs
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.250). 1-3, HBP, RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.179). 0-2, 2 BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Julian Merryweather (-.340). ⅔ IP, 7 BF, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 ER
- Goat: Moises Ballesteros (-.334). 0-4, DP
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.133). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Justin Turner’s walk-off, two-run double. (.548)
*Marlins Play of the Game: Connor Norby’s homer leading off the seventh gave the Marlins a 3-2 lead. (.205)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Colin Rea received 210 of 255 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +18
- Shōta Imanaga +11
- Ian Happ/Miguel Amaya/Nico Hoerner +8
- Matt Shaw -7
- Michael Busch -8.5
- Ben Brown -9
- Seiya Suzuki -10.5
- Julian Merryweather -13
Up Next: A getaway day night game for the Marlins. Jameson Taillon (2-2, 4.53, 43⅔ IP) for the Cubs. He’ll be looking to bounce back after allowing five runs in four innings to the Mets. 25-year-old lefty Ryan Weathers, son of David, will make his season debut. He owns a career mark of 10-21, 5.08 in 242⅔ innings. The former first-round (seventh overall) pick of the Padres is in his second full season as a Marlin and missed the start of the season with an injury. He had a forearm issue back in March.