A return home and a brief offensive revival lead to a 5-2 win.
I’m not in the mood for counting any chickens today. But, for one day, this team took care of business and kept all of the demons at bay. I don’t know any more than any of the rest of you if this team will emerge from the 41 games from hell and get hot. I suspect they will. Certainly, the Cardinals have emerged the last week and a half as the hottest team in baseball. I believe the schedule will even itself out and I like the odds for the Cubs. But one doesn’t know.
On Monday night, the Cubs arrived home. The old baseball adage is the next night’s starting pitcher. Some have also said it that it’s the next night’s starting pitching performance. That’s the idea obviously. If you get a strong pitching performance, the team is likely to look very good. On Monday, Colin Rea was terrific. There he was pitching into the seventh inning. Apparently, he went one or two batters too long. I was absolutely at home wishing for him to get to try to finish the seventh. But he paid for one mistake, a two-run homer.
Following along at home, I thought the offense made Cal Quantrill work hard in the first and third. They then got to him in the fifth. They greeted him in the fifth with a single (stolen base), homer and double. Those were three of the four hits Cal allowed and all three would eventually score. After Quantrill was chased, the Cubs added a triple for their first inning cycle of the year.
Other than the one inning, the Cubs offense was again fairly dormant. But, the one inning saw the offense score five runs. A pair of two-run homers and an RBI triple accounted for the five runs. With all five runs coming in one inning, this was very much a team effort. The Cubs used only three pitchers and all three made strong contributions to the win. Welcome Daniel Palencia and Drew Pomeranz to the ascending list for pitchers.
This was a delightful win. There were contributions up and down the lineup. There was some defense, some good baserunning and some timely power. This team has and will look better many times this year. But, this team looked in control Monday night. The team continued the oddities that have been Sunday struggles and home series opening victories. I’m certainly not prepared to buy into that storyline, but it is a strong early theme.
The Cubs need to split the remaining two to start a new stack of series victories. Of course, a series sweep is in the mix too.
Pitch Counts:
- Marlins: 155, 34 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 135, 34 BF
Here, for the first time in a little while, we see a big disparity. The Cubs forced the Marlins to throw nearly 20 pitches per inning. The damage done was somewhat minimal though. They only tallied the five runs, though of note Marlins starter Cal Quantrill unraveled in his fifth inning of work.
The early starter knockout was almost entirely mitigated by some excellent work out of the pen from Cade Gibson. He essentially piggybacked this game, throwing the final three innings. Obviously, the Cubs are unlikely to see Gibson the remainder of the series, but the entire Marlins bullpen otherwise should be available Tuesday.
For the Cubs, at least Daniel Palencia is probably down for Tuesday’s game, but they otherwise should have a full complement of relievers. Neither team really put the other in a bind with both teams coming in with no off day. The Cubs have an off day Thursday. They can probably use the bullpen fairly aggressively these next two games if need be to chase another win or two.
Three Stars:
- Colin Rea has provided a ton of value in the early going. If you are someone who laughed at the signing, remind yourself that there are a lot of ways to find value and fill innings. While I suspect that it isn’t great for this team long term if Rea remains one of their most effective starters, that isn’t reflective of him. He and Matthew Boyd have been terrific. The Cubs offseason was sneaky good, even ignoring the Kyle Tucker trade.
- The acquisition of Drew Pomeranz had a lot of echoes of the Tyson Miller acquisition last year. It was a trade for a guy who was squeezed out and needed to be on a major league roster. Of course, Miller is much closer to the beginning of his career and Pomeranz the end. But like Miller last year, Pomeranz has been effective right from the start. Last night he was called upon to collect a save. Pleasantly, with a three run lead, it did not open with a walk.
- Dansby Swanson electrified the team and the crowd with a long two-run homer to open up the scoring. He had two hits in all and stays red hot since dropping out of the five spot. Surely coincidence, but it did act like a light switch for whatever reason.
Game 42, May 12: Cubs 5, Marlins 2 (24-18)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.258). 6⅔ IP, 25 BF, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 R, 4 K (W 3-0)
- Hero: Dansby Swanson (.147). 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Miguel Amaya (.091). 3-3, 2 2B, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Jon Berti (-069). 0-3
- Goat: Michael Busch (-.067). 0-4
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.049). 0-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s two-run homer in the fifth opened the scoring. (.173)
*Marlins Play of the Game: With two outs and runners on first and second in the third inning, Cal Quantrill got Kyle Tucker to fly out to end the inning. (.047)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd received 109 of 148 votes
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +18
- Shōta Imanaga +11
- Ian Happ/Miguel Amaya +8
- Colin Rae +7
- Matt Shaw -7
- Michael Busch -8.5
- Ben Brown -9
- Seiya Suzuki -9.5
- Julian Merryweather -10
Up Next: Game two of the three game set Tuesday night in Chicago. Ben Brown (3-3, 4.95 36⅓ IP) starts for the Cubs. Ben has fairly striking home/road splits so far this season. I don’t particularly think there is a reason for that. He hasn’t run into wind blowing out problems or anything really. So I suspect he is due for a good one at Wrigley. This Marlins lineup isn’t particularly fearsome.
25-year-old Valente Bellozo is a name I’ve never heard before. Bellozo (0-2, 3.50, 18 IP) is making his fifth start for the Marlins. You’ll note that over four, he’s thrown 18 innings. So don’t expect to see the young righthander out of Mexico deep into this game. But don’t sleep on him either. He went 5⅓ last time out against the Dodgers and only allowed one hit and a pair of walks. He also struck out seven. Let’s see if the Cubs can treat him rudely.