The Cubs explode in the the second and coast to a 10-0 victory.
Friday night in Milwaukee, the Cubs scored two in the first to set the tone early, then lowered the boom with a seven-run second, featuring a Michael Busch grand slam. For those of you who aren’t longtime WPA guys, a quick summation. When the game gets lopsided early and stays that way throughout, the first plate appearance or two have an outsized effect. If you aren’t thinking through sequencing, you’ve probably got the podiums for Heroes and Goats all wrong.
You might be looking for Michael Busch. He’s in the middle of the pack. It was already 4-0 by the time he hit the grand slam. Also, it was bases loaded, one out when he batted. The WPA chart expects the Cubs on average to score 1.57 runs after the time at which they have that exact set up. He produced four runs, so that’s a bonus of over 2.4 runs. It’s significant. But when WPA expects that you’ll be up 5-0, even as early as the second, WPA already thinks you are close to 90 percent to win the game. When the Cubs were scoring two in the first, Busch grounded out with runners on first and second and one out.
You might be looking for Pete Crow-Armstrong with two homers. You are not going to be happy when you locate him. But he made the last out of that first inning. Then, it was already 8-0 before the first homer and 9-0 before the second. Neither particularly moves the WPA needle, even if your own personal needle is pointing straight north after watching him slug his eighth homer in 16 games.
Al wrote a piece Friday about the Cubs and homers. He projected PCA for 20 homers. Al’s seen more baseball than even most rabid fans ever see. It’s a sensible prediction. I’ll take the over. I don’t think any of us know where PCA plateaus. Remember, he was very young when drafted, missed time due to an injury and might just be growing into a power stroke. His love for bunting aside, I’m not sure anyone is going to tell him what he can’t do and he wouldn’t anyway. After this game, he’s just a shade under a 40-homer pace. I’m not betting against him.
I’ve seen some snarky comments around social media about the Cubs starting hot and fading in recent years. I suspect that is largely meatball fans and not actual major league talent evaluators. But anyone wants to take this team lightly, it’s fine by me. I’m the broken record here telling you this team is special. I haven’t been proved wrong yet.
I definitely realize that the Cubs are catching the Brewers at a time when they aren’t playing their best ball. It’s about time the Cubs caught someone that way. The only other such team was the A’s, who have since turned out to be pretty good. Who would have guessed? The Brewers have taken particular pleasure piling on the Cubs after every misstep over the last five years or so. Some turnabout would be fantastic. I don’t believe this Brewers team will stay down and so I’d love to go ahead and put a lot of distance between the two teams.
Side note, it has always been one of my quirky favorites about major league baseball that it doesn’t matter how one-sided a game is, if a pitcher on the winning team successfully completes the final three innings (or more), he records a save. Kudos to Chris Flexen who started 30 games for a trivia question White Sox team last year, losing 15 of them. He completed three scoreless in garbage time and nailed down his third major league save and first since 2022.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 128, 33 BF (14.22 PPI/3.88 PPB)
- Brewers: 164, 43 BF (18.22 PPI/3.81 PPB)
The Brewers got an inning out of a position player. but actual pitchers still threw 154 pitches. Looking solely at the numbers by pitchers, these already bad Brewer numbers get worse. Actual pitchers threw 154 pitches to 38 batters (19.25 PPI/4.05 PPB). The Cubs offense attacked early and piled on. You can’t draw it up any better. For the Brewers, they elected to use an opener. Lefty Tyler Alexander came is now at 0-3 with a 7.04 over his last seven appearances (15⅓ IP). He allowed three singles to the first four batters he faced and two of those runners scored. Ian Happ (from his weaker side) and Kyle Tucker started the game with a pair of singles. Nightmare time in Milwaukee.
On the Cubs side of the ledger, Flexen is the pitching hero. No offense to Ben Brown, who was terrific. But in this space, we look in part at downstream side effects. Brown and Flexen allowed Craig Counsell to not only save all of his “A” relievers, but effectively all of his “B” relievers as well. If the Cubs want a fresh arm, Flexen can be swapped out. He surely won’t be ready to pitch again in this series after throwing 54 pitches. But Counsell can manage the remainder of this series very aggressively with his pitchers should he choose to. On the other side, the Brewers used five actual pitchers, though only the actual “load” pitcher threw more than 20 pitches. We will almost certainly see one or two of these guys later in the series.
Three Stars:
- He had a ton of run support, but kudos to Ben Brown. He’s been up and down, but some of that has been rough BABIP luck. I think some have been too hard on the youngster. Regardless, the Brewers were the victim in by far the best start of his major league career. Arguably, they are now the victim in the second best as well. Six scoreless. Four hits and no walks. Dominant. Efficient.
- Look, I don’t care what the game situation was or what WPA thinks. Two homers. PCA. Every time. .271/.309/.550 (wRC+ 137). Look, you want a guy with his speed to walk more. At some point, those walks might be intentional. Especially if he stays down near the bottom of a very potent Cubs lineup.
- Kyle Tucker had two singles and a walk. He scored two and drove in one. He helped get the offense ignited.
Game 33, May 2: Cubs 10, Brewers 0 (20-13)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Kyle Tucker (.143). 2-3, BB, RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Ian Happ (.089). 1-2, 2 BB, R
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.084). 1-4, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.021). 1-4, RBI, R
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.020). 2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Kid: Justin Turner (.000). 0-1
WPA Play of the Game: Kyle Tucker batted with a runner on first and no outs in a scoreless first inning. He singled. (.089).
*Brewers Play of the Game: Tyler Anderson faced Seiya Suzuki with runners on first and third in the first inning, the game still scoreless. He struck him out. (.059)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Seiya Suzuki won 236 of 289 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +16
- Shōta Imanaga +8
- Miguel Amaya +7
- Ian Happ +6
- Colin Rea +5
- 2 Players at -5
- Nate Pearson -6
- Matt Shaw -7
- Ben Brown -8
- Dansby Swanson -11
Up Next: Game two of the three game series. Jameson Taillon (1-1, 4.01, 33⅔ IP) goes for the Cubs. Last time out, he threw a gem at the Phillies, allowing only one run over seven innings. He made four starts against the Brewers a year ago, throwing 25⅓ innings and allowing eight runs, seven earned. The two starts in Chicago were much better than the two in Milwaukee.
I don’t have to introduce you to veteran and ex-Cub José Quintana (4-0, 1.14, 23⅔ IP). The 36-year-old lefty has won his first four starts as a Brewer. José was excellent in one start last year, at Wrigley as a Met. This is where I usually remind you the Cubs have been destroying righthanded pitching. That won’t help in this one. Quintana is not a Cy Young caliber pitcher. Let’s hope for some regression.