The Cubs falter, then recover late for a 5-3 walk-off win.
If you came out of the trade deadline frustrated, then this weekend at Wrigley Field probably didn’t do anything to allay your concerns or frustrations. Certainly, an Orioles team that traded away a good chunk of its players and had been well under .500 didn’t feel like a series that would see the combined three-game score being 9-7. To be sure, over the three day weekend, 12 times a single team scored more than nine runs in a single game this weekend. A good handful more scored more than seven runs. This is all to say that pitching ruled all weekend long.
One day, we’re going to have some talks about how unappealing Wrigley Field has become for an offensive statistic minded player to call home. It’s definitely a great place to visit. Players love playing in front of a packed house that tends to be pretty energetic. Also, there is plenty of food and nightlife around, as so many of you know. But if you care about your legacy, do you want to play 81 games in a park that is increasingly pitcher friendly?
But that’s not our topic for today. I think it’s important to say that frustrating or not, you can never assume a sweep. Two out of three is a good outcome. I’m certainly not throwing it back, even if I’m as frustrated as many of you are. It’s hard to watch this team struggle. As much as the Cubs were a few plays away from a sweep, they weren’t that many plays apart from being swept either. If you care what things looked like, you’d hope that at least one of these three games was a comfortable win.
Therein lies the problem. The offense remains stuck in second gear. They didn’t hit particularly well in any of the three games. Fortunately, they did pitch well over the weekend. The conditions at Wrigley Field probably had at least something to be said with both things. But also, a hat tip to the Cubs pitching staff, particularly the starters this weekend and a furrowed eyebrow at the offense. We’re going to need more at some point.
Alas, three more days come off of the calendar. A series won, but ground lost to the first place Brewers who flat- out obliterated the Nationals in our nation’s capital this weekend. 51 games left on the schedule, two games to overcome. Far from insurmountable. However, May 17 to present, the Brewers are 45-29. That’s a .608 winning percentage, a 98.5 win pace. That’s looking increasingly difficult to catch. The biggest feather in the cap is a five-game set at Wrigley Field between the teams in a couple of weeks.
Colin Rea wasn’t quite as good as Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd were the last two days. But he came up one short of five innings with only two runs on five hits, a walk and a hit batter. Then three relievers needed 12 batters to record 10 outs, keeping the score right where it was until the ninth inning. Unfortunately, Daniel Palencia couldn’t hold the lead and blew a save after 15 consecutive saves converted. The last time he blew one, he bounced right back and so hopefully he’ll do the same thing this time. That is, after all, the life of a closer.
I’m not sure if Justin Turner is the unlikeliest offensive hero, but he’s certainly one of them. By my count, this is the second time he’s walked one off, this time he did it in epic fashion with a two-run homer. Palencia steals the win to go with his blown save. The prime frustration of people who have given up on wins as a meaningful pitcher statistic.
After a long weekend, the Cubs got some production of the top spots in the order today. Not the least of which, Turner was pinch hitting for leadoff hitter Michael Busch. His job was without a doubt identified as just keep the inning alive for Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki who each had a pair of hits in the game. But then he got into one and launched the two-run homer and walked it off. Good for Justin. He’s been consistently identified as a good teammate. A long form article idea for another day is Justin Turner and the potential playoff roster. But we’ll save that one too.
Time marches on. 51 to go. The team is on pace for 95 wins. That feels pretty realistic. It might take a few more than that to win the division. Buckle up.
Pitch Count:
- Orioles: 147, 37 BF (8+ IP)
- Cubs: 150, 37 BF
Each team’s starter recorded 14 outs and was charged with two runs. Each team’s closer allowed an earned run in the ninth. The difference until that ninth inning was the run allowed by Oriole reliever Dietrich Enns. Enns allowed three singles to the 7-8-9 hitters in the Cubs lineup. Two righties and a switch hitter, after he got the final out in the fifth inning by striking out Pete Crow-Armstrong. Their closer, another lefty, allowed the walk-off to pinch hitter Turner, who was subbing for Michael Busch.
So the lefty thing didn’t work out against the Cubs on this day. The righties (and switch hitter Willi Castro) got the job done. That was the difference in the game. Each team sent the exact same number of batters to the plate. Of course, the Cubs recorded three more outs. So the Orioles threw just over 18 pitches per inning and the Cubs just under 17. In neither instance is that stellar.
Cub pitchers allowed seen hits and three walks. They also struck out 10 and so that piled up a whole lot of pitches. The Cubs had 11 hits and drew two walks. They struck out eight times. Four Cub relievers threw, none of them throwing more than 20 pitches. This was basically the “A” group. They should all be available Monday for the series opener with the Reds.
Three Stars:
- Justin Turner gets the top spot for his pinch-hit, two-run, walk-off homer.
- Seiya Suzuki had two hits, one an RBI-single and he scored a run.
- Drew Pomeranz faced five batters, retiring four of them with the game tied in the fifth and sixth inning of a tie game. This was 3-4-5-6-7 hitters in the lineup and that held the score where it was until the offense added on.
Game 111, August 3: Cubs 5, Orioles 3 (65-46)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Justin Turner (.293). 1-1, HR, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Dansby Swanson (.191). 1-4, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Brad Keller (.118). IP, 4 BF, BB, 2 K
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.210). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, R, K (W 2-1)
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.143). 0-4
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.095). 0-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Ryan Noda’s two-out, game-tying single in the ninth inning. (.320)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Justin Turner’s two-run, walk-off homer. (.293)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd (184 of 205 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- 3 Players -7
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -18
- Dansby Swanson -24.33
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Up Next: The 58-54 Reds are the next visitor to Wrigley Field. The Cubs are 4-2 versus the Reds so far this season. The Cubs took two of three each of the two times they met up with the Reds earlier this year in one of those back-to-back weekend home and home series. The Reds were 29-31 after they last faced the Cubs but has gone 29-23 since. They lost two of three to the Braves in Cincinnati over the weekend. Making matters worse for the Reds, they were scheduled to be off on Sunday, had their showcase game rained out after only an inning, and then continued as a bullpen game.
Michael Soroka (3-8, 4.87, 81⅓ IP) makes his Cubs debut. He’s 0-3 with a 4.59 ERA over his last seven starts (33⅓ IP) so it’s hard to say that it’s trending well or anything of the sorts. The lowest hanging fruit is that the Cubs defense is a good bit better than the Nationals. I don’t think there is much dispute of that. All four Cubs infielders are very good, and their left and center fielders are both excellent. He also strikes out over a batter an inning. Present Cubs who have done that this year include Ben Brown, Daniel Palencia and Drew Pomeranz. Porter Hodge actually did too. But that’s it this year, Michael doesn’t average one more than one per inning in his career. But it was a feat he accomplished last year. Swing and miss stuff appears to have been a priority at the deadline. New Cub Andrew Kittredge is off to a good start as a Cub in that regard.
Nick Lodolo (8-6, 3.09, 128 IP) has to be keeping an eye on getting deep in this game after the Reds were forced into a bullpen game Sunday. He went nine in a start against the Nationals back on the July 23 (against Soroka) and seven in New York against the Mets the start before. He won both of those starts on the road. So he can provide a little length and he can win on the road. He is 3-1 with a 1.88 over his last seven starts (43 IP).
Trivia note: Soroka was a compensation pick, 28th overall in the 2015 draft — the one that featured Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ (and also Alex Bregman). The Cubs seem fixated on that draft.