The Cubs stumble late in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles.
Two games ago, I noted the Cubs had played .500 over the last 36 games. That number now is 38 games. This game is just stuck in neutral. While they are stuck there, the Brewers ran right past them. Nothing is over with more than 50 games remaining in the season, but as the season grows shorter, every game back is more meaningful. There’s little question the division is now the Brewers’ to lose. I certainly wouldn’t have believed that a few weeks ago.
This game was one of those glass half empty, glass half full games that I’ve talked about so much though the years. Matthew Boyd had a terrific bounce-back game. Four hits, no walks and eight strikeouts over seven shutout innings, You love seeing Boyd bounce back and you have to feel increasingly good that he’s going to give you a good shot to win any postseason game he’s able to throw for you. Granted, the other postseason team is going to look a lot more like the Brewers than the Orioles. But, if he gave you a start like this in the playoffs then whoever the best non-closer reliever is getting the eighth inning and then Daniel Palencia in the ninth.
Alas, we’re still in the marathon and not the sprint. With four straight games after this one before a day off and after using four relievers yesterday in a tense game, the Cubs went to their other relievers. I know that there is a lot of frustration at the results. To be clear, this result is frustrating. But don’t pretend that Ryan Brasier and Caleb Thielbar didn’t each allow two runs in less than an inning and still leave the game with ERAs under 3.00. Brasier hasn’t seen a ton of leverage. But also, a three-run lead against a lousy team isn’t a lot of leverage. Thielbar has been used in a wide variety of situations as the only lefty prior to the deadline. He’s been terrific.
Unfortunately, neither was good on Saturday and that cost the Cubs a game. That’s the nature of relief pitching. When they fail, it’s generally going to lose games for you. Neither Ryan nor Caleb is going to argue. They’ll both say that they need to be better and that if they did their job, the team probably wins another game.
All of that said, a real issue in this series is the Cub offense posting four total runs in 17 innings offensively in this series. The team just has to be better than this offensively. As good as the pitching has often been this year, the calling card of this team has been the offense. This just has to get better over time.
This was another game where there was production from the bottom of the order. The 5-8 hitters in the order had seven hits and a sacrifice fly in just 16 plate appearances. The other five hitters in the lineup had a total of one hit and four walks in 24 plate appearances. The two doubles and one triple all came from those 5-8 hitters. One of the doubles scored, one put a runner on third that ended up scoring. The triple scored. So the slug all mattered here. It figured in all three runs.
Another frustrating loss. Can’t say it more concisely than that.
Pitch Counts:
- Orioles: 166, 40 BF
- Cubs: 124, 35 BF
These numbers end up being really misleading. The Orioles threw over 18 pitches per inning. They faced 13 excess batters. That should probably result in four or five runs. The Cubs did have three hits with runners in scoring position. That number was 3-for-9 and isn’t terrible. We talked a lot over the last two months about this team and its reliance on homers. If this Cubs team can’t hit it out of the park, they will at times really struggle to sustain the offense.
On the other hand, Cubs pitching threw fewer than 14 pitches per inning. Of course, this starts with Matthew Boyd who needed only 24 batters and 92 pitches to finish seven innings. So he was just a hair over 13 pitches per inning. Boyd is going to get some mid-ballot Cy Young consideration for this season. 32 pitches and 11 batters were necessary to get the last six outs. Even that isn’t awful. But one of the two walks on the day and one of only two extra base hits occurred in the last two innings and led to all four runs. All of that said, every Cub pitcher should be available Sunday to chase a series win ahead of a tricky series against the Reds.
Three Stars:
- Matthew Boyd was terrific. The 95ish times out of 100 that this game is a 3-0 or 3-1 or more lopsided win, Boyd is the star. Not taking it away just because the bullpen crashed.
- Nico Hoerner had three hits, one a double and drove in two runs.
- Willi Castro had a triple and a single and scored twice. Here’s hoping we see Willi give a lot of guys a day off over the next few weeks.
Game 110, August 2: Orioles 4, Cubs 3 (54-46)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matthew Boyd (.337). 7 IP, 24 BF, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 8 K
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.146). 3-4, 2B, 2 RBI
- Sidekick: Carson Kelly (.096). 0-0, BB
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.591). ⅔ IP, 5 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 ER, 0 K (L 2-3)
8th worst WPA game of the year by a Cubs player.
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.219). 0-5
- Kid: Kyle Tucker (-.137). 1-5
WPA Play of the Game: Gunnar Henderson’s three-run homer off of Caleb Thielbar with two outs in the eighth turned a two-run deficit into a one-run lead. (.591)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner batted with runners on first and second with no outs in a scoreless game in the second inning. He doubled in the first run of the game. (.147)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Cade Horton received 187 of 209 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- 3 Players -9
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -18
- Dansby Swanson -26.33
- Seiya Suzuki -30
The Rizzo appears to be up for grabs. Even with a Billy Goat in the start before this, he’s now only six back. He’s been hanging out there since his last start before the All-Star break and Tucker isn’t pulling away.
Up Next: The third and final game of the series, the winner takes the series. Colin Rea (8-5, 4.25, 106 IP) starts for the Cubs. I don’t think I expected Colin to remain in the rotation into August. Maybe with Jameson Taillon and possibly Javier Assad on their way back, he doesn’t finish the year there. But here he is with another key start. He is 4-3 with a 4.97 ERA over his last seven starts. He generally gets the decision, so he’s been very involved for better or for worse in these starts.
Brandon Young (0-5, 6.63, 36⅔ IP) starts for the Orioles. Young is a rookie and right handed. He pitched pretty well last time against a Blue Jays team that has been red hot for the last couple of months. He’s still looking for his first major league win. He’s taken a turn the last six times through the rotation for the Orioles. His two best starts over that time are against the Blue Jays (2 ER over 6) and the Mets (2 ER over 5⅓ ). With numbers like these, unsurprisingly, his numbers are bad in just about every situation.
Find your footing in the majors next week, Brandon. The Cubs just can’t let another series get away. Not against a team that they are so far superior to.