The Cubs hang on for a 5-4 win over the Sox.
Clearly you guys just needed me to get back in the country. The Cubs were on a four-game winning streak when I left. They dropped four of five while I was outside of the States. Then they’ve won two in a row since I got back. As near as I can tell, I will also be traveling the week of the World Series. I did not think that week would matter when I booked it. I do look at it sideways now. I mean, this probably isn’t a World Series team.
Right?
That’s a problem for another day. Today, we start with the curious case of Daniel Palencia and Heroes and Goats. No, it’s not a really weird one like Seiya Suzuki sitting last. With today’s Superhero, he enters the top 10. (If you haven’t caught on through the years that the cover photo is a spoiler for Superhero, sorry for the spoiler.)
Tied for 10th isn’t particularly notable. We’ve had closers on top. In 2022, David Robertson won the Rizzo as a traded player. Pedro Strop won the award in 2018. So we aren’t in uncharted territory. But I found myself thinking as I was looking for a Palencia photo, that I can’t remember doing one for him. So the oddity is rather than Daniel hasn’t been a Superhero previously while being the closer for months on a first-place team. Interesting.
So, the oddity is that he’s reached the top 10 without posting a Superhero previously. To be fair, tied for 10th is a total of +6. On the negative side, -4.5 is 10th. So it’s a pretty reasonable distribution of scores. Daniel has two Billy Goats. His first game as closer back in May. June 9 in Philadelphia. That’s it. Those are all of his negatives. But really, it isn’t just that. Heroes and Goats has completely forgotten him. His last placing of any type was way back on June 14th. That was the second of back-to-back appearances on the Hero podium. Then for a month and a half he disappeared. And then on one Sunday in late July, he was exactly the Superhero the Cubs needed.
This game was the baseball equivalent of a heist flick. I imagine not a ton of people who read this space are myopic with their baseball watching. I’m basically a rabbit hole in a rabbit hole to find my writing. You have to find Al’s great site in a crowded marketplace and then follow on down to my secondary recaps of games. So it probably doesn’t go unnoticed by you that this team just schooled the White Sox on two plays. In a game decided by a single run.
Nico Hoerner’s dropped infield fly rule forced a White Sox miscue. I watched it without the sound out and I had to watch it probably five times before I figured out how it was even a double play. Many of us remember Anthony Rizzo dropping a couple of pop ups in his day to turn plays into double plays when the situation allowed. But I’ve never seen that executed that way, and of course you shouldn’t. That was flat out a bad baserunning play.
Then Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner forced a fielding error later in the game following a beautiful back pick that had Nico dead to rights. Good team speed, a whole lot of effort and hustle and an inexperienced defensive play ended up leading to a run on interference.
If you didn’t watch this game, go right now to Al’s recap and watch both plays. That’s high baseball IQ against poor decision making. The second play literally stole a run and the first might have taken one off of the board. It certainly snuffed a quality scoring chance. More than anything, this Cubs team is really aware of situations. They stole this game. The Brewers have done this so much recently that it does feel like they have a monopoly on it.
Trade deadline imminent. Let’s look at these storylines and how they may effect the needs going into the deadline.
Key Storylines:
- Starting Pitching: Ben Brown came up huge. Five innings, three hits, one run. Four strikeouts, no walks. Exactly the kind of tantalizing appearance that makes you reluctant to give up on Ben. As the starting pitching goes, so goes this team.
- Relief Pitching: A rare rough day. Four innings, Five hits, a hit batter and three runs. Ryan Brasier has been really good, mostly in medium leverage spots. He let this one get into nail biting position. A reminder that this team needs at least one arm at the deadline. They might eventually benefit from the return of Javier Assad (or the starter displaced by his return), but another experienced guy down there would be terrific.
- Homer Over Reliance: Five runs, no homers. Four doubles among seven hits. They also drew six walks. So doubles and walks created the OPS in this game. Three steals in this one plus the baserunning heist I described above.
- Third Base Production: Matt Shaw had a double and an RBI among four at bats. He also stole a base. Shaw’s wRC+ is up to 86.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted seventh. Rough day at the plate with three strikeouts in four at bats. Saw four runners on base and moved just one of them 90 feet.
- Opposing starter: Righty opener and righty bulk starter. I thought they might ambush Grant Taylor and I wasn’t wrong. Two lefty relievers faced seven batters and recorded seven outs, though each walked one hitter. The Cubs just keep winning when the other team starts a righty.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 126, 35 BF
- White Sox: 177, 39 BF
The Cubs threw just a tick under 13 pitches per inning. Those are great results. They allowed eight hits and no walks. Three runs in somewhat bad sequencing. The Sox came alive against Brasier for three runs. Otherwise, they didn’t really put a lot of strain on Cubs pitching.
On the other hand, it’s hard to throw almost 20 pitches per inning and not look up at a crooked number. This is a day where the Cubs approach was there and really gave the Sox fits, but they really just couldn’t sustain the offense. But it was the kind of game in game one of the series that might steal a second win. Alas, any collateral damage to the Sox pen will be someone else’s benefit.
No Cubs reliever threw more than 20 pitches. Caleb Thielbar is the only one I can see any hesitation at using Monday. He’s thrown two straight, but hasn’t thrown three days in a row this year. I’m all but positive that Caleb will say he is available Monday. Certainly Tuesday/Wednesday both if not Monday.
Three Stars:
- Nico Hoerner really filled the box score with a pair of singles, a walk, a run batted in, a run scored and his getting picked off inadvertently resulted in the decisive run. He saw 34 pitches in the game. That’s so incredibly disruptive. Nico is unquestionably one of my favorite players.
- Ben Brown. Craig Counsell noted that he was hoping for four innings out of Ben and got five really strong innings. He can pitch in this league.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong with a pair of doubles, including a two-run double in the first to give Brown something to work with right out of the gate.
Game 105, July 27: Cubs 5, White Sox 4 (62-43)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Daniel Palencia (.230). 1⅓ IP, 5 BF, K, HBP (Sv 14)
- Hero: Ben Brown (.206). 5 IP, 17 BF, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 4 K (W 5-7)
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.194). 2-4, 2 2B, 2 RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.140). 0-5
- Goat: Ryan Brasier (-.096). IP, 6 BF, 3 H, 3 ER
- Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.085). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s first-inning double for the game’s first two runs. (.166)
*Sox Play of the Game: Andrew Benintendi’s second homer of the game came with two on and cut a four run lead to one. (.145)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Cade Horton received 164 of 182 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +28
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +16
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Nico Hoerner -8
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -18
- Dansby Swanson -23.33
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Four of the six on the podium are in the top 10 in points and two are in the bottom 10. This was a big day for key performers. For better or for worse.
Up Next: They can’t get much bigger than this in July. The Cubs and Brewers are tied for the NL Central lead and the best record in the NL. The Mets are in San Diego, playing a Padres team that has a one game lead on the last Wild Card slot. The NL increasingly looks like nine teams competing for six spot (and four of those nine teams residing in the NL Central).
The series starts with a bang. Matthew Boyd (11-3, 2.20, 118⅔ IP) is emerging as a dark horse NL Cy Young candidate. He’s 4-0 with an 0.67 ERA in July and has won six of seven starts (1.02 ERA). He’s blisteringly hot. He’s not yet faced the Brewers. Biggest start to date as a Cub.
On the other side? Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 2.45, 29⅓ IP). The young right-hander was a second round pick for the Brewers in 2022 and is only 23 years old. He’s been bonkers, but in my view he was one of the most outlandish All-Star selections ever. He’s probably been that good, but how many pitchers have had four good starts at the front of their careers? He only threw 3⅔ last time out in Seattle. He did strike out seven and only walk one. They are managing his workload. They’ll likely turn him loose in what is surely the biggest start of his young career. The Mets knocked him around pretty good and the Cubs are really good in games started by righties.
This is must-see TV.