The Cubs’ mini-slump continues in a 4-2 loss.
When a team gets shutdown on a given day, it can be as much about the pitcher for the other team as much as it is about the team. When an offense goes more or less silent for four days, it’s unlikely that the answer is that you ran into four guys who were locked in all at the same time. Certainly not impossible and not dismissing the talents of any of the four pitchers the Cubs have faced these last four days. This isn’t August or September and there certainly weren’t any random minor league starters who are starting largely because they are the last healthy arm on the 40-man roster. These guys were all major leaguers with at least some track record of success.
So, we’ve hit the first stretch of 2024 where the bats more or less collectively have entered a slump. That relentless offense has been quite a bit less relentless recently. As a result, getting through the lineup has been less of a daunting task. That has allowed four capable pitchers to more consistently execute their game plan. You have to challenge a guy. Make him work. Get runners on base. Get him out of his rhythm. Get him out of constant attack mode. And the Cubs offense just isn’t doing that enough right now.
And the Cubs won one of those four games. They were maybe a little fortunate to win that one. But also, without a whole lot more fortune, they win two of the other three. If you told me that none of the plethora of Cubs players on the injured list would come back healthy or effective, I’d be saying we were seeing the last struggles of a Cubs team that would ultimately fade into oblivion. But all of those players are going to come back.
These games weren’t close as some sort of fluke. That was something I might or might not have said artfully yesterday after the Taillon/Morel win. The Cubs were probably fortunate to win that game. But the excellent performance of Taillon and the persistence of the Cubs offense kept them in that game and ready to strike when the opportunity came. Sunday night’s near miss against the Red Sox was very similar. Daniel Palencia and Mike Tauchman were the stars in that one, but again the point was similar. They hung in long enough to strike when the Red Sox faltered a bit.
You don’t have to squint or turn your head sideways to see a competitive team. This team is good. With a few exceptions for the truly powerhouse teams, you don’t know the measure of how good a team can be until there is a significant body of work. There just isn’t enough data. And again, if the guys who aren’t here don’t come back, there probably isn’t enough on this current roster, even giving credit for more depth available in the minor league system.
I suspect that this team is an upper third team in baseball this year. I suspect that with reasonable luck and health that this is a playoff team. I suspect that they aren’t likely to be completely outclassed too many times. Sure, games like Saturday’s blowout loss will occur. But those really do happen to even the best teams. But over time, I expect them to hang in and be competitive. Could they get buzz-sawed in a playoff series? Yeah, probably. But that can happen to even most of the best teams too.
This should be a fun ride. This team should be in most games til the end and I think they are going to win more than their fair share of games. I also think that Craig Counsell is still learning his team. There’s no question that he’s a good manager and we’ve certainly seen already that he can add value to the team. But I don’t yet feel like we’ve seen one of those games that we’ve seen through the years where he just manages circles around the guy in the other dugout. I imagine the recipe for that is part opportunity and part experience. Experience that he is gaining right now in learning what guys are and aren’t capable of.
Only time will tell. Until then, hunker down. Weather this storm. It will blow over. Maybe as soon as tonight. Maybe on the upcoming homestand. But the tide will turn. Until then, I’m pretty confident that this team will continue to battle and when opportunity presents, they’ll attack. Maybe like Monday that will be enough, maybe like Sunday it will come up short a few times. But I think it’s unlikely too many Saturdays happen. I really do think this team is just too good to have that happen more than a random one off.
Let’s look for three positive performances in a largely punchless loss.
- I think as much as baseball changes, it still stays fairly constant that starting pitching sets the tone. Javier Assad continued the script that we’ve seen for a long time now. He’s certainly not a top tier pitcher. But he’s darn good second tier guy. If he can ever find some length, I might someday revisit the first part of that sentence. But one run over five innings is more than enough to give your team a shot to win. He didn’t walk anyone and allowed five hits over five innings. That’s a really strong outing. At the end of the day, if I could lock it in, I’d take 162 of those and figure out how to find three plus innings out of the bullpen every single day.
- Does it feel like Mike Tauchman is in this space every single day? Having sent two daughters through Bradley University after nearly going there myself, I certainly have some bias in favor of Mike. But I don’t need it. He’s been one of the most consistently productive bats in the lineup. Tuesday night was certainly no exception. He had two of the Cubs four hits, and scored one of the two runs. He had the only extra base hit, a double.
- As much as I’m tempted to get Matt Mervis here for getting a runner home from third with less than two outs, I just can’t put a groundout to first here. So let’s hat tip Colten Brewer. I’m not sure how much run he’s going to get with this team. He’s getting low leverage opportunities but is also out of options. Last night’s performance didn’t do him any disservice. He faced seven hitters, struck out three of them and allowed only one baserunner, a two-out walk in the eighth.
Game 30, April 30: Mets 4, Cubs 2 (18-12)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Javier Assad (.164). 5 IP, 20 batters, 5 H, R, K
- Hero: Christopher Morel (.081). 1-3, BB, SB
- Sidekick: Miguel Amaya (.020). 0-1, BB, SF, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Adbert Alzolay (-.330). IP, 6 batters, 2 H, 3 R, 0 ER (L 1-3)
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.119). 0-4
- Kid: Ian Happ (-.087). 0-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: DJ Stewart batted with runners on first and second with two outs in a tie game in the sixth inning. He hit a three-run homer that ended up being the game winner. (.343)
*Mike Tauchman batted with a runner on first and one out in the second inning, the Cubs down one. He doubled, setting up the Cubs first run. (.071)
Yesterday’s Winner: Jameson Taillon 65/35 over Christopher Morel
Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 6/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Mike Tauchman +8.5
- Michael Busch/Mark Leiter Jr./Jameson Taillon +7
- Javier Assad +6.5
- Miles Mastrobuoni -5
- Miguel Amaya -8
- Nico Hoerner -9.5
- Adbert Alzolay -10
- Kyle Hendricks -15
Up Next: Game three of this four game series. The Cubs will look to take the lead in the series. They’ll send the right guy to the mound to do it. Shōta Imanaga has made five major league starts and he’s 4-0 with an 0.98 ERA in 27⅔ innings. The only start he didn’t win so far was maybe the most dominant he’s looked over the five games. He’s struck out 28 batters. He pitched into the seventh inning for the first time earlier on this trip against the Red Sox in Friday’s game. One thing to keep an eye on in this one: This is Shōta’s first time throwing on just four days rest. It’s my understanding that in Japan the norm is for five days of rest. In this stretch of games, he’ll likely need to pitch on four days at least one more time.
The Mets will start 26-year-old righty José Buttó (0-1, 2.86). He’s made four starts so far this year and pitched 22 innings. He’s in his first full season with the Mets after making one start in 2022 and nine appearances seven starts last year. For his career, he’s 1-5 with a 4.10 ERA in 68 innings of work. That’s too soon to draw any conclusions, but he appears to keep them in the game. Last time out he lost to the Cardinals in a home start. He was charged with four runs on four hits, three walks and a hit batter. He did pitch into the sixth, getting two outs before leaving. He’s pitched into the sixth three times in four starts. He has topped out at 95 pitches. So it looks like they have him on a leash of about 90-95 pitches.
Assuming Shōta isn’t too adversely effected by the shorter rest, it feels like a game the Cubs can win and just tread water a little longer while some guys get healthy.